Africa Intelligence Brief for Thursday, February 24, 2026

1 SA Budget 2026 delivered yesterday — Godongwana holds the line: no VAT hike, no PIT/CIT rate changes, debt stabilised at ~78% GDP, third consecutive primary surplus, commodity windfall (gold+PGMs) lifts revenues ~R19B above target; bond issuance cut expected; markets respond positively

2 COSATU tests GNU on day after Budget — 3-month rolling action begins — National Day of Action TODAY at GEMS HQ Pretoria; DENOSA, NEHAWU, SADTU mobilise against 9.8% medical aid hike (CMS recommended 3.3%); COSATU signals this is “Phase One” with intensified workplace mobilisation and possible national march to follow; Section 77 LRA protection confirmed; GEMS principal officer earns double the President’s salary

3 DRC ceasefire collapses within 72 hours; Angolan mediation in crisis — FARDC and M23 trade violation accusations; fighting resumes around Minembwe in South Kivu highlands; Burundian troops involved; Qatari-mediated talks to resume but seventh ceasefire failure deepens structural pessimism; 7M+ displaced; US pressures AVZ Minerals to sell Manono lithium to American firm

4 Mugabe son remanded on attempted murder + 2 additional charges — Bellarmine Chatunga Mugabe (29) and bodyguard charged with attempted murder, defeating ends of justice, and unlawful firearm possession after gardener shot in Hyde Park; remanded to Mar 3 bail hearing; Grace Mugabe “distressed”; firearm still missing

5 Somaliland plays mineral-and-base card for US recognition; Somalia cancels UAE defence deals — Hargeisa offers Washington exclusive lithium/coltan access + military installations at Gulf of Aden; already exploring Israeli military presence; Mogadishu and AU reject; Somalia cancelled all UAE port and security agreements Jan 12 over sovereignty concerns; Horn geopolitics reshuffling around Red Sea access

Sudan

Ethiopia–Eritrea

DRC – M23

Nigeria NW

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered the 2026 Budget on February 25 in Cape Town. As widely expected, he held all headline tax rates — no VAT increase (after last year’s debacle), no personal income tax rate changes, and corporate tax stays at 27%. The budget deficit narrows to ~4.4% of GDP. South Africa records its third consecutive primary surplus at ~1% of GDP. Gross debt stabilises at ~77.9% of GDP. A gold and PGM commodity windfall has lifted SARS revenues approximately R19 billion above target. JPMorgan projects a 50%+ probability of bond issuance being cut to R2.5B/week from R3B. Morgan Stanley called it “one of the most bullish budget documents in many a year.”After last year’s three-attempt budget fiasco, stability was the prize. Godongwana got it. No VAT hike means no political rupture in the GNU ahead of 2026 local elections. But the structural problem persists: debt-servicing costs consume more than health or policing budgets. The commodity windfall is cyclical, not structural — gold at $5,150 is buying time, not buying reform. S&P’s positive outlook (first upgrade in 18 years last November) depends on whether this discipline outlasts the election cycle.

COSATU-affiliated unions are staging a nationwide “National Day of Action” today, February 26, protesting the Government Employees Medical Scheme’s (GEMS) 9.8% contribution increase for 2026. DENOSA, NEHAWU, and SADTU are leading marches, with the main demonstration targeting GEMS headquarters in Pretoria. SEIFSA confirmed the action meets Section 77 LRA requirements for protected protest. DENOSA President Simon Hlungwani called the increase “unjustified” and said it would “erode” public servants’ take-home pay, making it difficult to cover school fees, transport, and food.The timing is pointed — one day after the Budget Speech that avoided tax hikes. COSATU is signalling that workers’ patience has limits even when the Treasury exercises restraint. For the GNU, labour unrest in an election year is a political pressure point the ANC cannot ignore. The 9.8% hike compares with CPI at ~3.5%, meaning real costs are rising sharply for 1.6 million GEMS members. The CMS recommended just 3.3% — GEMS overshot by 6.5 percentage points.

The International Crisis Group issued Briefing 210 on February 18 warning that deadly conflict between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray “could erupt at any time.” Bloomberg reports both sides are deploying troops and hardware to northern Tigray. Addis Ababa demanded Eritrean troop withdrawal on February 7; Asmara rejected this as “patently false.” A three-way friction involves the federal government, TDF (Tigray forces), and Eritrea. The flashpoint is Assab port — landlocked Ethiopia views Red Sea access as existential; Eritrea treats it as a sovereignty red line. This overlaps with Sudan’s proxy war: UAE backs RSF via Ethiopia; Egypt/Saudi back SAF via Eritrea.Any military escalation in the Horn would disrupt the Ethio-Djibouti corridor handling 90%+ of Ethiopia’s trade. Regional proxy war dynamics mean a bilateral conflict could rapidly internationalise. Egypt’s investment in Eritrea’s Assab port and Saudi’s growing ties with Asmara add layers of external interest. For investors: Horn of Africa shipping, logistics, and Ethiopian sovereign bonds are all exposed.

The APC won 5 of 6 chairmanship seats in the FCT Area Council elections on February 21 — the first test of President Tinubu’s Electoral Act 2026, signed just 3 days before polling. Turnout was critically low — under 15% of 2023 levels in some constituencies. Opposition parties PDP, NNPP, and ADC were absent from ballots in several races. FCT Minister Wike imposed a curfew and declared a work-free day that drew condemnation from Senator Ireti Kingibe as “authoritarian.” Separately, the NCDC confirmed 318 Lassa fever cases and 70 deaths, with a 22% case fatality rate concentrated in five states.The election was supposed to showcase the new Electoral Act’s reforms, particularly electronic result transmission. Instead, the dominant narrative is voter apathy, opposition boycotts, and Wike’s heavy-handedness. For 2027 general election watchers, the signals are worrying. The Lassa fever outbreak — five times deadlier than the global average for viral haemorrhagic fevers — is straining an already overwhelmed health system. Northwest banditry has killed 300+ in February alone according to Amnesty International.

After the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” under IEEPA, the President immediately announced 15% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, replacing the previous 10% rate. This comes as AGOA — the African Growth and Opportunity Act providing duty-free access for qualifying African nations — faces questions about its fitness for purpose and imminent expiry. Section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs remain in force separately. Gold surged to $5,154/oz on safe-haven demand; Bitcoin crashed 27% in one month with $5B exiting spot ETFs.African exporters face a dual squeeze: higher baseline tariffs + AGOA uncertainty. South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria are the continent’s largest AGOA beneficiaries. The tariff escalation accelerates the de-dollarisation trend and makes China’s move to scrap tariffs on most African goods from May 2026 look strategically timed. A dual trade architecture is emerging: the US raising walls while China lowers them. The gold/Bitcoin divergence tells the story: institutional capital is running to hard assets, not digital ones.