Key Points
- China and Russia are condemning US pressure, but both signal limits far short of military intervention.
- Beijing’s priority is oil security and limiting exposure to US tariff and sanctions pressure.
- Moscow is tied down in Ukraine, and its 2025 pact with Tehran is not a mutual-defense guarantee.
Iran is caught in a squeeze: mass protests at home and renewed threats from Washington. US President Donald Trump has publicly cheered demonstrators and hinted at tougher action, while Iranian officials have warned they would retaliate against US bases in the region if attacked.
An emergency UN Security Council meeting followed as death toll estimates climbed. Independent monitors have put casualties from the unrest from the hundreds to the low thousands, figures Tehran disputes.
Iran’s leadership can point to two heavyweight partners—China and Russia—who also want to push back on Washington. But their interests do not add up to a promise to fight, especially when ideology collides with hard cost-benefit math.
China’s ties are deep and transactional. In 2021, Beijing and Tehran signed a long-term cooperation framework spanning energy, infrastructure, technology and security.
Limited Backing: The Limits of China and Russia’s Support
China also seeks diplomatic clout in the Middle East. It helped facilitate the 2023 Iran–Saudi diplomatic thaw and later hosted talks in Beijing among rival Palestinian factions in 2024.
Yet Beijing has kept its response disciplined. It stresses “non-interference” and urges restraint, without offering protection. A war could jolt shipping lanes and energy prices, and it could also trigger tougher US penalties.
Trump’s floated idea of a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran raises the cost of doing business with Tehran, and makes overt support harder to justify. Russia’s rhetoric is sharper, calling strike threats unacceptable and warning of “disastrous” consequences.
But Moscow is stretched by Ukraine and wary of a second direct showdown with Washington. The Russia–Iran strategic partnership signed in 2025 is not a mutual-defense treaty.
It mainly commits each side not to help an aggressor, leaving room for statements, UN maneuvering and selective security cooperation—without sending Russian forces into an Iran–US war.
For Tehran, the message is blunt: partners, yes. A cavalry charge, no.