Key Points
The sector that helped put Jair Bolsonaro in power is not sure it wants to do the same for his eldest son. In 2022, the former president won 77 of the 100 richest agribusiness municipalities. Agribusiness leaders led his campaign donations. Now, with Flávio Bolsonaro rising in presidential polls, that same sector is holding back.
The Concerns
O Estado de S. Paulo reported this week that nine lawmakers and eight agribusiness leaders, all speaking anonymously, expressed reluctance to support the senator’s candidacy. Their concerns span electability, trade policy and personnel.
Specific names around Flávio alarm the sector. Former energy minister Adolfo Sachsida, now an adviser, froze biofuel blending mandates during the Bolsonaro administration — a period one biofuels executive called a “nightmare” for the industry. Eduardo Bolsonaro, repeatedly mentioned as a potential foreign minister, raises fears about Brazil’s relationship with China, the country’s largest buyer of agricultural products. At least two agribusiness figures who served under Jair Bolsonaro have refused to help draft Flávio’s policy platform.
The Polls Have Changed
The hesitation matters more now because Flávio is no longer a marginal candidate. An Atlas/Bloomberg poll released this week showed him statistically tied with Lula in a simulated runoff for the first time: 46.3% to 46.2%. In December, Lula led by 12 points. Tarcísio de Freitas now edges past Lula in a separate scenario, 47.1% to 45.9%. In first-round tests, Lula still leads with 43% to 47%, but his rejection rate has climbed to 48.2% — the highest among all tested candidates.
The Dream Ticket
Tarcísio remains the sector’s overwhelming preference. He is described as the only figure capable of uniting the entire agribusiness chain, from ranchers to exporters. A potential ticket pairing him with Senator Tereza Cristina — a former agriculture minister with deep roots in the cattle industry — is widely called the sector’s dream scenario. Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior and Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado are also well regarded, though neither commands national reach.
The obstacle is Jair Bolsonaro himself. From prison, where he began serving a 27-year sentence in November after his conviction for leading the 2022 coup plot, he endorsed Flávio in December. That endorsement carries enormous weight on the right. Some in agribusiness still hope a possible transfer to house arrest could change the dynamic.
Two Scenarios, One Sector
If Flávio is confirmed as the right’s candidate, agribusiness will likely fracture along familiar lines. Rural producers will follow the Bolsonaro name, drawn by cultural affinity and the security agenda. Agroindustrial exporters will hedge toward Lula, despite persistent tensions over the landless workers’ movement, proposed agricultural tax increases and indigenous land demarcation.
If a unified center-right alternative emerges, the migration could be nearly total. One export executive told O Estado de S. Paulo that the pragmatic agribusiness sector would back that candidate over Lula without hesitation. The question is whether the sector is powerful enough to shape the race — or merely wealthy enough to pick the winner after someone else does.