USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for Thursday, April 9, 2026

1 Anthropic launches Project Glasswing — its new frontier model Claude Mythos Preview has found thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities across critical software, including a 27-year-old bug in OpenBSD, and is being shared exclusively with Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google, CrowdStrike, Nvidia, JPMorgan and Palo Alto Networks for defensive cybersecurity, while being withheld from the public because it “surpasses all but the most skilled humans” at finding and exploiting software flaws

2 Fed Chair Powell’s term expires in May — Trump has stated his nominee must “enact his agenda” of sharply lower rates, with Kevin Warsh widely expected as replacement, but Stanford SIEPR notes Powell could remain as a Fed governor until 2028 and “recent events raise the odds he stays on the board” to protect the institution’s independence

3 Ontario’s 2026 budget allocates $6.9 billion in electricity subsidies, $1.1 billion for hospitals — more than a billion short of the $2.2 billion the Ontario Hospital Association requested — extends the HST cut on new homes to all buyers, and braces for potential CUSMA disruption with enhanced capital cost depreciation allowances for businesses

4 The Fed’s March meeting minutes revealed a divided committee — with rate cut odds at 43% by December and rate hike odds also live at 45% for Q3, creating the widest divergence in market expectations since the pandemic, with tomorrow’s CPI release the data point that will resolve the ambiguity

5 Defence stocks continue their “security supercycle” — Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman at heights driven by stockpile replenishment orders, with Allspring Global investing in defence names “insulated from energy shocks” and JPMorgan’s Dimon identifying defence and energy as the structural winners of a “war-driven economy”

CPI March CPI releases tomorrow — Cleveland Fed nowcast ~3.5%, gasoline $3.96/gallon, shelter down to 2.96% from 4.24% a year ago, most consequential inflation print of 2026, determines every mortgage rate in America

AI FEAR Anthropic’s Claude Cowork triggered sell-off across insurance, legal, real estate, logistics and brokerage stocks — investors fear AI agents undermine per-seat pricing models, “fears spread well beyond software”

CONSUMER Delta confirms K-shaped economy — 90% revenue from premium travellers, but cutting capacity, raising bag fees; Levi Strauss +12.8% after raising full-year guidance, rare upgrade during war period

HOUSING US mortgage rates in low 6% range, homes “modestly more affordable” per Redfin — but CPI tomorrow determines direction; Canada condo softness persists in Toronto and Vancouver, Ontario extends HST cut

JOBS Goldman forecasts US payrolls rising to 70K/month (double 2025’s 32K average), wages +2.3% — but AI may keep hiring muted as companies automate, Anthropic’s tools accelerating the displacement timeline

CANADA BoC conducting once-in-five-years framework review — Deputy Governor Rogers reaffirms 2% target, examining shelter inflation measurement, positioned uniquely as energy producer + consumer economy

TECHNOLOGY • UNITED STATES

Anthropic Launches Project Glasswing — AI Model That Outperforms Humans at Finding Exploits

What happened: Anthropic unveiled Project Glasswing on April 7, a cybersecurity initiative built around its unreleased frontier model Claude Mythos Preview. The model has already discovered thousands of previously unknown software vulnerabilities, including a 27-year-old bug in OpenBSD. Anthropic said the model demonstrates “a level of coding capability where [it] can surpass all but the most skilled humans at finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities.” Because of the dual-use risk, Anthropic has withheld the model from public release and restricted access to approximately 50 organisations including Amazon Web Services, Apple, Microsoft, Google, CrowdStrike, Nvidia, JPMorgan Chase and Palo Alto Networks. US Senator Mark Warner praised the initiative. The US intelligence community is now discussing how such tools could reshape both defensive and offensive cyber operations.

So what: Project Glasswing is simultaneously the most significant cybersecurity development of 2026 and a milestone in the AI capabilities debate. By demonstrating that an AI model can find zero-day vulnerabilities at a rate and sophistication exceeding human experts, Anthropic has shown that the offensive-defensive balance in cybersecurity has permanently shifted. The restricted release model — sharing with trusted partners while withholding from the public — creates a two-tier cyber landscape where the companies and governments with Mythos access have a structural advantage. For investors, the immediate impact is the cybersecurity sector: CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and other partners gain a competitive moat. The broader AI market implication is that Anthropic has validated the “capabilities frontier” narrative — AI is now doing things that were previously the domain of elite human specialists. For Latin American investors, Project Glasswing signals that cybersecurity spending is entering a structural growth phase globally, benefiting the companies and consultancies that serve Latin American banks, governments and infrastructure operators.

MONETARY POLICY • UNITED STATES

Powell’s Fed Chair Term Expires in May — Independence at Stake

What happened: Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve chair expires in May 2026. President Trump has aggressively attacked Powell and stated that his nominee must “enact his agenda” of sharply lower interest rates. Kevin Warsh is widely expected as the replacement. However, Stanford’s Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) notes two critical factors: even if the new chair does the president’s bidding, he or she will be just one of twelve voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee. Second, Powell’s 14-year term as a Fed governor runs until 2028, meaning he could choose to remain on the board. SIEPR concludes that “recent events raise the odds that he’ll stay on the board” to protect the institution’s political independence.

So what: This is the most consequential Fed leadership transition since Volcker. The question is not just who sits in the chair — it is whether the Federal Reserve retains the institutional independence that has anchored US monetary credibility since 1979. A compliant chair who cuts rates despite 3.5% inflation would signal to global bond markets that the Fed has been captured by political pressure. The immediate consequence would be a weaker dollar, higher long-term yields (as inflation expectations de-anchor), and a repricing of every dollar-denominated asset on the planet. Powell’s potential decision to remain as a governor is the check on this scenario — his presence on the board would create a visible counterweight. For Latin American investors, Fed independence is existential: the dollar is the denomination of Latin American external debt, the benchmark for commodity pricing, and the anchor for EM currency stability. A politicised Fed reprices all of it.

FISCAL • CANADA

Ontario Budget: $6.9B Electricity Subsidy, Hospital Funding Gap, CUSMA Bracing

What happened: The Ontario government released its 2026 budget, featuring $6.9 billion in electricity bill subsidies — a long-standing policy that is not means-tested, as critics have noted. The budget allocates $1.1 billion in new hospital funding, but that is more than a billion dollars less than the $2.2 billion the Ontario Hospital Association said the province’s overburdened hospital sector requires. The HST cut on new homes was extended to all buyers, and enhanced capital cost depreciation allowances were introduced for businesses to stimulate investment. The budget projects unemployment falling from 7.4% in 2026 to 6.4% by 2028. The province is also bracing for potential disruption to the CUSMA free trade agreement, which is currently under review with the United States.

So what: Ontario’s budget is an election-cycle document masquerading as fiscal policy. The $6.9 billion electricity subsidy — which benefits wealthy homeowners as much as struggling families — is politically popular but fiscally irresponsible at a time when the province’s deficit is already under pressure. The hospital underfunding is the structural tell: Ontario needs $2.2 billion but is getting half that, meaning waiting lists lengthen and healthcare outcomes deteriorate. The CUSMA bracing is prudent: if the US targets Ontario’s auto sector in the trade review, the province’s manufacturing base — which depends on integrated cross-border supply chains — faces disruption. The capital cost allowance enhancement is the genuinely useful measure, as it incentivises business investment at a time when Canada’s private non-residential investment contracted 0.3% last year. For Latin American investors, Ontario’s CUSMA anxiety mirrors Mexico’s: both economies are deeply integrated into North American supply chains and face the same review risk.

MONETARY POLICY • UNITED STATES

Fed Minutes: Divided Committee, CPI Tomorrow Resolves the Ambiguity

What happened: The March FOMC meeting minutes, released Wednesday, revealed a committee divided on the inflation-employment trade-off. The minutes were drafted before the war’s worst escalation and the subsequent ceasefire. Market pricing has swung wildly in recent days: before the war, traders expected two rate cuts in 2026. During the war, rate hike odds for Q3 jumped to 45% after Dimon’s shareholder letter. The ceasefire then pushed cut odds to 43% by December. Tomorrow’s March CPI release is the data point that will determine which scenario prevails. The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcast is tracking approximately 3.5%, with gasoline near $4 and food prices still elevated.

So what: The widest divergence in rate expectations since the pandemic reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the US is experiencing a temporary energy shock or a structural inflation shift. Dimon’s “skunk at the party” thesis argues the latter: inflation at 3.5% reflects a “fundamental realignment of global trade and production,” not a transient spike. If tomorrow’s CPI confirms 3.5%+, the minutes become a roadmap for inaction or tightening. If CPI surprises to the downside, the cut narrative regains traction and the ceasefire’s economic relief becomes self-reinforcing through lower borrowing costs. The prime rate at 7.50% means every credit card, HELOC and variable-rate business loan in America is priced off this decision chain. For Latin American investors, the CPI print determines whether the dollar strengthens (hot CPI → Fed holds/hikes → dollar up → EM pressure) or weakens (cool CPI → cut odds rise → dollar down → EM relief).

MARKETS • UNITED STATES

Defence Stocks: The “Security Supercycle” Outperforms AI

What happened: US defence stocks continue to outperform in what JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon has called the “security supercycle.” Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman have reached new highs driven by stockpile replenishment orders generated by the Iran war. Allspring Global Investments is wading into defence names that are “insulated from energy shocks,” and institutional investors are rotating from growth-at-any-cost tech into physical security and energy infrastructure. Dimon’s shareholder letter identified defence and energy as the structural winners of a “war-driven economy” where the era of predictable, low-inflation growth is “firmly in the rearview mirror.” Defence has now outperformed AI-linked stocks in aggregate returns for 2025-26.

So what: The security supercycle thesis is not just about the Iran war — it is about a permanent shift in how governments and corporations allocate capital. NATO’s June 2025 summit set a 5% of GDP defence spending target by 2035. Germany has exempted all defence spending above 1% of GDP from fiscal rules and created a €500 billion infrastructure fund. The US defence budget continues to grow. Stockpile replenishment alone — replacing the munitions, missiles and equipment consumed or committed during the Iran campaign — generates multi-year procurement demand. For investors, the critical distinction is between cyclical war trades (which reverse when fighting ends) and structural defence positions (which are locked in by long-dated government contracts). Lockheed and Northrop are in the latter category. For Latin American investors, the security supercycle creates indirect demand for rare earth metals, specialised steel and electronic components that flow through Latin American mining and manufacturing supply chains.

Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) — Launched Project Glasswing with Claude Mythos Preview. Model finds zero-days faster than elite human hackers. Withheld from public over dual-use risk. “If we get it right, a fundamentally more secure internet; if wrong, the fallout could be severe”

Jerome Powell (Fed Chair) — Term expires May. Could stay as governor until 2028. March minutes show divided committee. Tomorrow’s CPI is his last major data-dependent decision as chair. Institutional independence at stake in succession

Doug Ford (Ontario Premier) — $6.9B electricity subsidy, $1.1B hospitals (half of what’s needed). HST cut on new homes. Bracing for CUSMA disruption. Capital cost allowance incentives. Election-cycle spending amid fiscal constraints

Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan CEO) — “Skunk at the party” thesis being tested by tomorrow’s CPI. Identified defence and energy as supercycle winners. Warned $1.8T private credit market vulnerable. Consumer “recently weakening”

Mark Carney (Canada PM) — Leading CUSMA review negotiations with US. One seat shy of majority. BoC framework review underway. Managing energy-producer economy through global oil shock. Balancing US trade relationship with Canadian sovereignty

Project Glasswing: Anthropic restricts Claude Mythos to ~50 partners. Model finds zero-days at superhuman rate. US intelligence community discussing offensive/defensive implications. Senator Warner praised initiative. Dual-use governance challenge for entire AI industry.

Fed Succession: Powell’s chair term expires May. Governor term runs to 2028. Trump wants compliant nominee. New chair is 1 of 12 FOMC voters. Institutional independence precedent being set for a generation.

CUSMA Review: Formal US-Canada talks began January. US expected to target Online Streaming Act, dairy market access, auto rules of origin. Agreement protected Canada from worst tariffs. Ontario auto sector directly exposed.

AI Workforce Impact: Claude Cowork triggered multi-sector sell-off beyond software. Per-seat pricing models under threat across insurance, legal, real estate, logistics. IMF’s Georgieva warned AI will impact 40% of global jobs. Entry-level positions face “tsunami.”

APR 10 US March CPI release — most consequential inflation print of 2026, determines Fed path and every borrowing rate in America

APR 10 Islamabad talks begin — US-Iran negotiations, outcome determines ceasefire extension or war resumption

APR 14 IMF World Economic Outlook — US and Canada growth downgrades, inflation upgrades

APR 23 Intel Q1 earnings — first results since $14.2B Ireland fab buyback, 18A node and foundry pipeline critical

APR 30 US PCE price index — Powell’s preferred inflation gauge, final major data point before chair transition

MAY Powell chair term expires — Warsh expected as successor, Powell may remain as governor, FOMC dynamics reshape

Today’s USA & Canada intelligence brief looks past the ceasefire to the domestic forces shaping North America’s economy. Three stories define the day. Project Glasswing proves that AI has crossed a capability threshold in cybersecurity that changes the offensive-defensive balance permanently — and the restricted release model creates a two-tier digital world where access to the most powerful tools is determined by Anthropic’s partner list, not the market. Powell’s May expiration is the institutional question of the decade: whether the Federal Reserve remains independent or becomes an instrument of presidential economic policy. Ontario’s budget is the Canadian microcosm of every fiscal challenge in the developed world: too much spending on universal subsidies, not enough on healthcare, and a trade review that could disrupt the province’s manufacturing base overnight.

Tomorrow is the day that resolves the ambiguity. The March CPI release and the Islamabad talks happen on the same day — a coincidence that creates a binary outcome for every asset class. If CPI comes in at 3.5%+ and the talks stall, the combined impact is devastating: the Fed hike scenario returns, oil spikes on Hormuz re-closure fears, and the ceasefire rally reverses completely. If CPI surprises to the downside and the talks produce a framework, the relief extends: cut odds strengthen, the dollar weakens, and EM flows improve. There is very little middle ground. The Fed’s divided minutes and the market’s 43%-cut-vs-45%-hike divergence tell you everything about how uncertain even the professionals are.

For Latin American investors, this USA & Canada intelligence brief delivers four signals. First, Project Glasswing’s cybersecurity implications are global — Latin American banks, governments and infrastructure operators that do not invest in AI-powered cyber defence will be structurally vulnerable to threats that AI-equipped attackers can now scale. Second, the Powell succession determines whether the dollar remains a stable anchor for Latin American external debt and commodity pricing, or becomes a volatile instrument of political cycles. Third, Ontario’s CUSMA anxiety is Mexico’s CUSMA anxiety — both economies face the same review risk, and the outcome will reshape North American supply chains for a decade. Fourth, the defence supercycle is creating procurement demand that flows through global supply chains, benefiting Latin American mining and manufacturing exporters who supply the raw materials for weapons systems, satellites and military infrastructure. Tomorrow’s CPI is the starting gun. Everything that follows depends on the number.