USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for Tuesday, May 5, 2026
What Matters Today
USA-Canada Pulse May 5: Section 122 tariffs expire July 24; Magnificent 7 $725B capex; Powell stays on Fed Board; Carney pipeline interview.
The Section 122 trade-deficit tariffs that the Trump administration imposed after the February 20 Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA expire on July 24, 2026 — 80 days from today — at which point Congress must vote to continue them.
Q1 earnings season has produced the highest S&P 500 EPS beat rate since Q2 2021 at 84 percent, with Magnificent 7 cumulative capital expenditure for 2026 now estimated at $725 billion versus $375 billion in 2025.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will step down from the chair role in mid-May while remaining on the Board of Governors until the DOJ probe completes.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told The Canadian Press in his first sit-down interview Friday May 1 that an Alberta pipeline is “more probable than possible.” Strategy Inc. reports Q1 today.
- ▸Section 122 tariffs expire July 24 — 80-day countdown to the binding congressional vote that defines whether the post-IEEPA 15 percent reciprocal tariff architecture continues or collapses.
- ▸Magnificent 7 capex $725B — Alphabet $175-185B, Meta ~2x 2025 spend, Microsoft guidance up; 84 percent of S&P 500 companies beat Q1 EPS estimates.
- ▸Carney pipeline “more probable than possible” — first PM sit-down interview since taking office; Smith preferring northern BC route despite Coastal First Nations and BC Premier Eby objections.
Key Facts
—LATAM Read. The July 24 Section 122 expiration operationalises the binding cliff for the post-IEEPA tariff architecture. Brazilian, Mexican, and Argentine corporate-strategy desks with US export exposure should treat the 80-day window as the structural-political-risk repricing event that defines Q3 trade-policy positioning. Background: yesterday’s USA & Canada intelligence brief.
—LATAM Read. The Magnificent 7 $725 billion capex cycle and the 84 percent S&P 500 beat rate confirm that the structural-economic baseline for 2026 is now anchored by AI infrastructure investment. Brazilian and Mexican corporate-strategy desks with US tech-supply-chain exposure should treat the Q2 earnings extension as the binding signal for partnership architecture through Q3.
—LATAM Read. The Powell-Warsh transition and the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord reopening framing represent the most consequential US monetary-institutional shift since the 1971 Bretton Woods exit. Brazilian and Mexican fixed-income allocators with Treasury and corporate-bond exposure should treat the May 15-22 chair-transition window as the binding political-risk repricing event that will define Q3 dollar-and-yield positioning.
—LATAM Read. The April nonfarm-payrolls print combined with today’s JOLTS and ISM Services releases will define the most consequential single-week macro-data window of Q2. Brazilian and Mexican fixed-income desks with US-rate sensitivity should treat the Friday print as the binding signal for the June FOMC trajectory.
—LATAM Read. The Carney pipeline framing operationalises the Canadian energy-export-diversification cycle that defines structural commodity positioning through 2027. Brazilian and Argentine commodity allocators with energy-sector exposure should treat the late-2026 financing-close timing as the binding signal for South-North energy-corridor positioning.
—LATAM Read. The Canadian export-diversification surge to 13.4 percent Q4 growth in non-US markets and the Sheinbaum universal-healthcare decree confirm the North American structural-political-economic divergence cycle. Brazilian and Argentine corporate-strategy desks with North American partnership exposure should treat the Canadian trade-agreement network spanning 51 countries as the binding signal for Q3 South-North positioning.
| INSTRUMENT | LEVEL | MOVE | NOTE |
| S&P 500 | 7,238.40 | ▲ +0.11% | 7th-week ATH watch; 84% Q1 EPS beat highest since Q2 2021 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 25,182 | ▲ +0.27% | M7 capex $725B 2026; AI momentum continuing |
| Dow Jones | 44,610 | → +0.04% | Industrials lagging; rotation favouring tech-heavy names |
| TSX Composite | 25,870 | ▲ +0.42% | Energy outperforming; Carney pipeline framing supports |
| USD/CAD | 1.3704 | ▼ −0.18% | Loonie firming on trade-diversification framework |
| USD/MXN | 17.42 | → +0.06% | Sheinbaum healthcare decree absorbed; range-bound |
| 10Y UST Yield | 4.32% | → +1 bp | Pre-jobs; Powell-Warsh transition watch May 15-22 |
| 10Y Canada Yield | 3.18% | → flat | BoC pause through 2026 baseline; June 4 meeting watch |
| Bitcoin (USD) | $98,420 | ▲ +1.18% | MSTR Q1 today; 713,502 BTC fair-value accounting signal |
| VIX | 14.85 | ▼ −2.1% | Volatility compressed; pre-jobs Friday positioning |
When do the Section 122 tariffs expire and what happens next?
The Section 122 trade-deficit tariffs that the Trump administration imposed on February 24, 2026 expire on July 24, 2026 — 80 days from today. Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 authorises the president to impose tariffs of up to 15 percent for up to 150 days. After July 24, Congress must vote to continue them. The tariff replaced the IEEPA-based tariffs that the Supreme Court ruled unlawful on February 20 in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump in a 6-3 opinion authored by Chief Justice John Roberts.
What is the Magnificent 7 capex plan for 2026?
TD Economics estimates Magnificent 7 cumulative capital expenditure for 2026 at approximately $725 billion versus $375 billion in 2025. Alphabet guided $175-185 billion in 2026 capex when reporting Q4 (approximately double 2025 levels). Meta’s full-year 2026 capex plan is nearly twice its 2025 spend. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta all raised their 2026 capex guidance last week. The Magnificent 7 represents approximately one-third of S&P 500 market capitalisation.
Why is Powell staying on the Federal Reserve Board after stepping down as chair?
Powell told reporters at his April 29 press conference that he plans to remain on the Board of Governors until the Justice Department probe of Federal Reserve renovations is “well and truly over with transparency and finality.” His term as a Fed governor expires January 2028. This is the first time a sitting Fed chair has not left the Board since Marriner Eccles in 1948. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro recently handed the DOJ probe over to the Federal Reserve’s inspector general.
What did Carney say about the Alberta pipeline?
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told The Canadian Press in his first sit-down interview Friday May 1 that a new oil pipeline out of Alberta is “more probable than possible,” citing increased global energy demand and Canada’s need to diversify exports to Asian markets. Carney said “there are multiple routes where there could be a pipeline,” leaving the door open to alternatives despite Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s preference for a northern British Columbia coast route. BC Premier David Eby, the Haisla Nation, and the Union of BC Indian Chiefs continue to oppose the northern route.
When is the next US jobs report?
The April nonfarm payrolls report releases Friday May 8, 2026 — the most consequential macro print of the week. The March payrolls report showed jobs growth of 178,000 versus consensus and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate. ADP weekly private payroll growth has averaged approximately 40,000 in April. JOLTS March job openings data and the ISM Services PMI for April both print today May 5. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50-3.75 percent at its April 29 meeting with four dissents — the first time since October 1992.
What is Canada’s fiscal and trade-diversification position in 2026?
Canada’s Spring Economic Update delivered an $11.5 billion improvement in the projected deficit per TD Economics. The IMF expects Canada to post the second-fastest growth in the G7 over 2026 and 2027. Canada has the lowest average tariff rate among major US trading partners at 5.2 percent. Canadian exports to non-US markets surged 13.4 percent in Q4 2025, fully offsetting the 1.9 percent decline in exports to the United States. Canada has secured $97 billion in foreign investment and 20+ new partnerships across four continents in the last year.
Updated: 2026-05-05T07:30:00Z by yesterday’s USA & Canada intelligence brief
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