USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for Thursday, March 12, 2026

1 US equities fall to lowest since November — S&P 500 ~−1%, Dow ~−1% (−575 pts), Nasdaq ~−1% — Brent blasts past $100; IEA record release fails; Morgan Stanley caps private credit redemptions; Treasury yields surge — Goldman Sachs −3.7%, Caterpillar −3.5%, Boeing −2.9% led Dow losses; Morgan Stanley −4% after capping withdrawals from its $8B North Haven fund, honouring only 45.8% of requests; Cliffwater capped its $33B flagship at 7% after investors sought 14%; the $2 trillion private credit market is under broad scrutiny; gold held at $5,172; Bitcoin fell to $70,109. This is The Rio Times’ daily intelligence coverage of USA and Canada for the Latin American financial community.

2 February CPI holds at 2.4% YoY, core cools to 0.2% MoM — but data is “stale” as it pre-dates the oil shock; Goldman warns sustained crude could push inflation to 3.5% by year-end with gas near $5/gallon — rent rose just 0.1% (smallest since January 2021); food +3.1% YoY; eggs −42.1% YoY; gasoline now at ~$3.54/gal, up 21% in a month; Capital Economics: prolonged conflict could lift CPI to 3.5% and airline fares +20% on jet fuel; Carson Group: “the calm before the storm”; FOMC March 17–18 expected to hold; one cut priced for September; 10Y Treasury at 4.217%

3 US releases 172 million barrels from SPR — largest contribution to IEA’s record 400M-barrel coordinated release; Energy Secretary Wright: Navy “not ready” to escort tankers; release will take 120 days — Trump posted that stopping Iranian nukes is “of far greater importance” than oil prices and that the US “makes a lot of money when oil prices rise”; Wright: all military assets focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities; escort capability likely by end of March; SPR drawdown adds to reserves already depleted during the 2022 Russia release; US budget deficit $1.004T through February, down 12% YoY

4 Trump launches Section 301 trade investigations targeting 16 economies — rebuilding tariff architecture after Supreme Court struck IEEPA tariffs on February 20 — USTR Greer: “excess capacity in manufacturing”; China, EU, Mexico, Japan, India, South Korea, Taiwan plus 9 others named; second probe covers forced-labour imports from 60+ countries; Bessent: tariffs back to pre-ruling levels by August; public comments April 15, hearing ~May 5; 10% Section 122 “global tariff” currently in effect as bridge; Greer: remedies could include tariffs, service fees, or other restrictions

5 Private credit market stress deepens — Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater, BlackRock, Blackstone all cap fund redemptions; JPMorgan marks down software-sector loans on AI disruption fears — MS North Haven returned $169M of ~$369M requested (45.8%), applying the 5% quarterly cap; Cliffwater’s $33B fund limited to 7% after record 14% requests; Blackstone’s BCRED also facing surge; JPMorgan has reduced leverage to private credit firms after reviewing software-sector turmoil; the $2 trillion market faces M&A uncertainty, credit deterioration, and yield compression; Adobe earnings due after the close Thursday

MARKETS US equities hitting their lowest since November is not a panic — it is a repricing for duration. The market is no longer trading whether the war ends but how long it lasts. The IEA’s record release, the SPR drawdown, and Japan’s unilateral action all failed to move oil below $100. When every policy lever has been pulled and prices still rise, the market draws its own conclusions.

INFLATION The February CPI is a postcard from a world that no longer exists. Rent at 0.1% and eggs down 42% are data from before Brent hit $100. March will capture $90+ crude flowing into gasoline, airfares, and freight. Goldman’s 3.5% scenario with gas near $5 is not worst-case — it is the base case if the Strait stays closed through Q2.

CREDIT The private credit story is the war’s second-order financial risk. When Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater, BlackRock, and Blackstone all cap redemptions in the same quarter, it is not idiosyncratic — it is systemic caution. JPMorgan marking down software loans adds an AI-disruption overlay to an already stressed asset class. The $2 trillion market was built on low rates and M&A. Both legs are now wobbling.

ENERGY Trump’s statement that the US “makes a lot of money when oil prices rise” is technically accurate and politically dangerous. Gas at $3.54 — up 21% in a month — is the kind of pocketbook shock that reshapes midterm elections. Wright admitting the Navy cannot yet escort tankers through Hormuz punctures the administration’s ability to promise a quick resolution.

TRADE The Section 301 investigations are the administration rebuilding from rubble. The Supreme Court demolished IEEPA tariffs; Section 122 is a temporary bridge; now Section 301 is the foundation for a new structure. Sixteen economies are named. The timeline is aggressive — remedies by July. The message: the tariff wall is coming back, just through a different door.

1 US budget deficit $1.004 trillion through February — down 12% from the same period in 2025 as revenues rose faster than spending; February deficit alone was $308B; however, the SPR drawdown and potential military spending escalation could reverse the improvement in coming months.

2 PPI and retail sales due Friday — these will be the first post-shock economic indicators; producer prices will show whether $90+ crude is filtering into input costs; retail sales will reveal if the consumer is pulling back; both critical for the FOMC March 17–18 statement language.

3 Adobe earnings due after Thursday close — the software giant’s results are a proxy for enterprise AI adoption and SaaS spending; JPMorgan’s loan markdowns on software companies have put the sector under a spotlight; any weakness in guidance could amplify private credit concerns.

4 Bank of Canada rate decision March 18 — BoC rate at 2.25%; Canadian energy sector benefits from the oil surge but the broader economy faces imported inflation pressure; TSX energy and gold miners outperforming; CUSMA-Mexico talks scheduled for March 16 add trade uncertainty.

5 NVIDIA GTC opens March 16–19 — Huang keynote March 17; Vera Rubin platform expected; the AI capex thesis faces its first real-world test against the energy bottleneck; BofA warned $650B in hyperscaler spend faces power constraints that $100+ oil only worsens.

6 Trump considering restarting California offshore oil production — the move would aim to alleviate supply constraints but faces significant regulatory and environmental hurdles; would not meaningfully affect supply for months; signals the administration’s willingness to expand domestic production aggressively.

Chris Wright — Energy Secretary confirmed the US Navy is “not ready” to escort tankers through Hormuz as military assets focus on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities; said escort capability is likely by end of March; the 172M-barrel SPR release will take 120 days — a timeline that undercuts market hopes for rapid relief.

Jamieson Greer — USTR opened Section 301 probes targeting 16 economies, signalling the administration’s determination to rebuild tariff pressure after the Supreme Court dismantled IEEPA authority; his goal of remedies before July Section 122 expiry sets an aggressive timetable for the trade architecture’s reconstruction.

Sonu Varghese — Carson Group‘s chief macro strategist captured the CPI paradox: “the calm before the storm that will show up due to surging gasoline prices in March”; his observation that the Fed has “an inflation problem even if you set aside the energy shock” because tariff impacts are still hitting core goods resonated broadly.

Saul Kavonic — MST Marquee analyst warned the IEA release “signals how acute the oil shortage risk is” and that “stock draws now will need to be replaced later, portending higher prices even after the war ends”; the most concise explanation of why the record release failed to calm markets.

Brad Conger — Hirtle Callaghan CIO called the CPI report “arguing over the dinner menu on the Titanic, since the economy has struck an energy cost iceberg”; added long Treasury duration, betting that underlying inflation is trending downward alongside employment and that the oil shock is temporary.

1 FOMC March 17–18 — new dot plot and economic projections; Feb CPI stale but core inflation remains above target on tariff pass-through; oil shock adds supply-side inflation the Fed cannot address with rate policy; expected to hold at 3.50–3.75%; statement language on inflation risks will be critical.

2 Section 301 timeline — public comments due April 15; hearing ~May 5; Greer aims for responsive actions before Section 122 tariffs expire in July; remedies could include tariffs, service fees, or other restrictions; 16 economies including all major US trade partners; Bessent: back to pre-ruling levels by August.

3 Private credit regulatory scrutiny — four major fund managers capping redemptions in one quarter is drawing attention from financial stability monitors; JPMorgan’s loan markdowns signal banks are repricing risk in the sector; the $2T market was built on low rates and M&A flow — both under pressure.

4 Bank of Canada March 18 — rate at 2.25%; the BoC faces a familiar dilemma: oil price surge benefits Canada’s energy sector but raises imported inflation; CUSMA-Mexico renegotiation talks March 16 add uncertainty; the loonie is supported by commodity prices but constrained by US dollar strength.

The policy toolkit is exhausted and the market knows it. The IEA released a record 400 million barrels, the US committed 172 million from the SPR, Japan acted unilaterally, and Germany tapped reserves for only the fourth time in history. Brent still cleared $100. When every lever has been pulled and the price still rises, the market is telling you the problem is duration, not volume.

The February CPI report is a museum piece. Its 2.4% headline captures a world of $70 oil, stable shipping lanes, and functioning Gulf infrastructure. None of those things exist anymore. March data will tell the real story — and Goldman’s scenario of 3.5% inflation with gas near $5 is now the most probable path if the Strait stays closed through the second quarter.

The private credit stress is the sleeper risk. Four major fund managers capping redemptions in a single quarter is not normal. JPMorgan marking down software loans is not normal. The $2 trillion market was engineered for a world of low rates and active M&A — both are under siege. If redemption pressure forces asset sales at distressed prices, the contagion path runs through regional banks and insurance companies.

The Section 301 investigations are the administration’s legal reconstruction project. The Supreme Court demolished IEEPA; Section 122 is temporary scaffolding; now Section 301 becomes the new foundation. Sixteen economies are on notice. The timeline is aggressive — remedies by July — and the message to trading partners is unambiguous: the tariff wall is being rebuilt.

For Canada, the oil surge is a familiar double-edged sword: Alberta benefits, consumers pay, and the Bank of Canada faces the same impossible trade-off as the Fed. The March 18 decision arrives one day after the FOMC, and the BoC will be watching Powell’s inflation language as closely as its own data. CUSMA talks on March 16 add a third variable to an already overloaded decision matrix.