Key Points
— Approximately 100 personnel have returned to the US embassy in Caracas to reopen it, with consular offices renovated, local security staff hired, and meetings with US food companies underway to coordinate their return to Venezuela
— US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum have all visited Caracas since January — discussing oil production, security alliances, and strategic minerals with interim President Delcy Rodríguez
— On the ground, the reality lags the expectations: oil field workers report facilities being repainted “on orders from above,” but major US firms remain cautious, and the $300 million in social spending from the US deal has not yet produced visible economic improvement
Three months after the US military captured Nicolás Maduro, the American flag — once the symbol of “imperialism” in Venezuelan politics — is being waved at student protests and opposition rallies in Caracas. The transformation is as disorienting as it is incomplete.
The US Venezuela presence has expanded rapidly since January. The embassy in Caracas, shuttered for years, is being reactivated under chargé d’affaires Laura Dogu, who now visits the Miraflores presidential palace with relative frequency. Roughly 100 staff — diplomatic, administrative, and support — have returned to renovate and occupy the sprawling compound. Consular offices on the ground floor are nearly operational. Local security hiring is underway. US food companies have met with embassy staff to plan their return to the Venezuelan market.
The High-Level Visits
The most consequential signal came on February 11-12, when US Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited Caracas — the first visit by a senior US energy official in years. Wright’s trip expanded Chevron’s operational footprint and triggered the deployment of American technicians and managers to Venezuelan oil fields, all focused on immediate production and investment. Chevron, the only major US oil company that stayed through the crisis, has since increased its exports to 267,000 barrels per day.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe also traveled to Caracas to discuss restructuring security alliances with the chavista establishment. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum met with Rodríguez about Washington’s interest in Venezuela’s strategic minerals and rare earths — a conversation that produced a mining investment bill now advancing through the National Assembly. All three visits would have been inconceivable before the January 3 capture of Maduro.
On the Ground: Expectations vs Reality
“In economic terms, expectations are moving much faster than reality,” one business leader told El País. “There’s a good financial atmosphere that has stimulated some real estate activity and some dynamism in oil. There are interesting telecom plans. Beyond that, not much. Everyone is preparing for a party that hasn’t arrived yet.”
In the oil fields of western Venezuela — around Lake Maracaibo, where Belarusian-Venezuelan joint ventures created under Chávez still operate — workers describe a shift in atmosphere rather than substance. Facilities are being repainted from red to grey and white “on orders from above,” with “above” meaning the Americans. Belarusian personnel continue working, but the instruction is to prioritize US companies. New “Súper Premium” gas stations, painted green and yellow, now sell higher-octane fuel at $1 per liter in cash — double the “international price” gasoline introduced during the pandemic with Iranian help, and vastly more expensive than the subsidized fuel that is increasingly scarce.
The Investment Hesitation
Major oil companies remain cautious. The January law opening crude production to private investment was a landmark — but concerns persist about how royalties will be used, about opportunistic operators with no petroleum experience acquiring field concessions, and about the political stability of the transition itself. “US companies need political and economic stability to invest, and they have reservations about Venezuela,” said Rafael Quirós, a petroleum economist at the Central University of Venezuela. “The speed of the political transition and the development of significant US investment are two interdependent variables.”
Rodríguez’s government launched a transparency portal (TransparenciaSoberana.gob.ve) showing the first $300 million generated by US negotiations — allocated to a social protection fund. Secretary of State Rubio said the money is already being spent on hospitals and teacher salaries. On the street, the impact is not yet visible. The government added $30 to the “war bonus” paid to some workers, but unions and pensioners are demanding a minimum wage increase and have called a major demonstration at Miraflores for April 9. The geopolitical realignment is real. The economic transformation it was supposed to unlock is still mostly a promise.