Runoff Or Knockout: Costa Rica’s Sunday Vote Hinges On One Number

Key Points

• A Chaves-aligned candidate is near 40%, the level that can end the race on February 1.
• Record violence is pushing voters toward harder security measures, including an emergency-style option.
• The deeper stake is institutional, as courts and constitutional rules could be rewritten after the vote.

Costa Rica votes on February 1, 2026. If a ticket wins 40% of votes, it wins outright. If not, the top two go to a runoff on April 5.

That math explains the opposition’s strategy. It is trying to hold the front-runner below 40%. It hopes to unify in round two. The field is crowded, with 20 presidential candidacies.

The favorite is Laura Fernández of the Partido Pueblo Soberano. She is backed by President Rodrigo Chaves. The University of Costa Rica’s CIEP poll put her near 44% among likely voters. A small shift could still force April.

Her challengers are split. Álvaro Ramos of the PLN has polled around 9%. Claudia Dobles of Agenda Ciudadana has been near him. She is linked to the 2018–2022 government of Carlos Alvarado.

Ariel Robles of the Frente Amplio has been near 4%. José Aguilar Berrocal of Avanza has been near 3%. He is tied by family to Nayib Bukele.

Costa Rica Election Hinges On Security

Juan Carlos Hidalgo of the PUSC has risen late. Fabricio Alvarado has fallen to about 1.5%.Turnout may decide the threshold. About 3.7 million Costa Ricans can vote. Around 26% said they were undecided late.

In 2022, abstention was about 40%. Another drop would magnify late swings. Crime is the campaign’s organizing fact. Costa Rica has no army and sold stability.

Drug routes and port battles have brought more violence. More than 900 homicides were recorded in 2023, the deadliest year on record.

Fernández signals tougher enforcement and echoes El Salvador’s approach. In debates, candidates discussed a “state of exception” style tool.

Critics warn it can enable abuses and political pressure. Social media has sharpened the tone. Chaves also pushes constitutional change to “clean up” the judiciary and empower the executive.

He cannot run again before 2034. Opponents argue new rules could reshape that limit. A strong bloc in the 57-seat legislature would speed reforms.

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