Rio’s Centrist Mayor Paes Abandons City Hall for Governor’s Race — What Expats Need to Know

Key Points

• Eduardo Paes (PSD), a centrist-populist allied with President Lula’s left-wing coalition, will resign as Rio’s mayor on March 20 to run for governor, breaking his 2024 campaign promise to serve until 2028.
• His departure could shift Rio de Janeiro state from its current right-leaning government under Governor Cláudio Castro (PL) to a Lula-aligned administration — with direct implications for security policy, business climate, and urban governance.
• A 31-year-old political protégé with limited executive experience, Eduardo Cavaliere, will inherit control of a city of 6.2 million residents, including one of Latin America’s largest expat communities.

Eduardo Paes confirmed on February 1 that he will step down as mayor of Rio de Janeiro on March 20 to chase the governor’s mansion in October’s elections.

The announcement, while long anticipated, formalizes a promise broken. During his 2024 re-election campaign — which he won decisively with 60.47% of the vote and 1.86 million ballots — Paes swore repeatedly he would serve his full term.

Paes belongs to the PSD, a centrist party led nationally by the influential powerbroker Gilberto Kassab. Despite centrist branding, Paes governs in coalition with President Lula‘s Workers’ Party and has cultivated left-wing alliances that will define his gubernatorial bid.

He leads every major poll by commanding margins, reaching 55% in some scenarios. The state he seeks to govern is currently run by the right.

Rio Security Gains Face Political Uncertainty

Governor Cláudio Castro of Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party delivered popular crackdowns on the Comando Vermelho drug faction and saw his approval surge to 53% after the massive Operação Contenção.

Castro is expected to resign to pursue a Senate seat, but the right’s gubernatorial succession plan collapsed when legislative president Rodrigo Bacellar was arrested in December for allegedly leaking classified police intelligence to organized crime.

For expats, the practical stakes are considerable. Castro’s security-first governance brought visible police operations and a harder line on organized crime.

A Paes administration at the state level would likely pivot toward Lula-aligned social policy priorities, potentially reshaping policing strategy in a city where safety remains the top voter concern.

At city hall, the transition carries its own risks. Vice-mayor Eduardo Cavaliere, a 31-year-old lawyer and Paes protégé, will assume control with no prior experience running a major administration.

He inherits a municipality facing a healthcare waiting list of over 335,000 people and 12,000 children awaiting daycare spots — challenges that demand seasoned leadership.

Rio’s political landscape is being redrawn. Whether that benefits the city’s residents and its international community remains an open question.

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