Monday’s Global Reset Sends Colombian Peso Surging as Risk Assets Recalibrate

Key Points

• USD/COP plunged to 3,611, down sharply from Friday’s close near 3,675 as the dollar index touched 4-year lows.
• COLCAP dropped 2.11% to 2,422.51, with Mineros leading losses at -9.53% amid a global precious metals rout.
• Gold crashed 9%+ on Friday, its worst single-day drop since 1983, triggered by Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair.
• Cross-asset contagion dominated: oil down 5%, silver collapsed 31%, but the peso strengthened as the “weak dollar” narrative accelerated.

The Big Picture

Colombia’s markets opened Tuesday under the weight of Friday and Monday’s extraordinary global recalibration. The peso surged to 3,611 per dollar—a move of more than 60 pesos from the prior session—as the greenback extended its slide toward multi-year lows.

The DXY index fell below 96 for the first time since early 2022, driven by a convergence of factors: President Trump’s hawkish Fed pick, an easing of US-Iran tensions, and a broader unwind of “King Dollar” positioning.

For Colombia, this is a double-edged dynamic. A weaker dollar supports peso strength and eases dollar-denominated debt burdens.

But the mechanism delivering that weakness—a global risk-off shock through precious metals—hit COLCAP hard on Monday.

What Moved Markets

The Warsh Nomination and Precious Metals Rout

President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on Friday triggered the most violent sell-off in gold since the 1980s.

Gold plunged over 9% on Friday to below $4,700 per ounce, with silver collapsing 31%—its worst day since 1980. The selloff extended into Monday Asian trading, with gold briefly touching intraday lows near $4,400 before stabilizing around $4,714.

The market interpreted Warsh as more hawkish than alternatives, removing one pillar that had supported the precious metals rally: the fear that Fed independence would be compromised by a Trump “puppet.” That narrative collapsed in a single session.

For Colombia, the gold rout directly impacted Mineros, the country’s largest gold miner, which fell 9.53% on Monday—the worst performer on the COLCAP. The contagion spread across the financial sector as the broader risk-off mood took hold.

Oil: US-Iran Talks Deflate Geopolitical Premium

Crude oil fell approximately 5% on Monday after President Trump confirmed that the US and Iran are “seriously talking,” with senior officials set to meet Friday.

This de-escalation, combined with OPEC+‘s decision to delay production increases, removed the geopolitical fear premium that had pushed WTI briefly above $67 last week.

WTI now trades around $61.66 per barrel—its steepest single-session drop in over six months. For Colombia, this is a modest headwind for Ecopetrol and the fiscal accounts, though the peso strength provides some offset in real terms.

The Dollar’s Structural Decline

Beyond Friday’s fireworks, the broader dollar story remains intact. The DXY has fallen below 96—a four-year low—as markets price in Fed rate cuts, question dollar asset valuations, and rotate toward emerging markets.

In January alone, global capital saw a net outflow of $18 billion from US Treasuries and $22 billion from US equities, according to flow data cited by investment banks.

This rotation has been a tailwind for Latin American assets broadly. Year-to-date, the MSCI Emerging Markets index is up approximately 11% in USD terms versus just 2% for the MSCI US.

Within Latin America, Colombia equities have risen about 16% over the past three months, trailing only Chile (+36.6%), Argentina (+28%), and Peru (+27%), but firmly in the top tier globally.

Coffee: Softer, But Not the Driver

Coffee futures retreated further, trading around $3.32-3.40 per pound after falling nearly 8% over the past month.

Improved rainfall in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region and a more favorable 2026 harvest outlook have eased supply concerns. For Colombia, coffee is a secondary factor at the moment—overshadowed by the macro and metals dynamics.

COLCAP Session Breakdown: Feb. 3 (Monday)

The COLCAP closed at 2,422.51, down 2.11% on the session. This was a classic risk-off unwind after January’s sharp rally.

The pattern is textbook for a metals-led selloff: miners and financials under pressure, with defensive infrastructure (Promigas) and diversified conglomerates (Argos) holding up relatively better. Suramericana’s outperformance reflects positioning into insurance ahead of the risk-off repricing.

Technical Levels: USD/COP

The charts show a peso that has broken into new territory. The daily structure shows price well below all key moving averages, with momentum indicators deeply oversold but trending lower.

4-Hour View:

• Price at 3,611, trading below the Ichimoku cloud
• MACD at -8.6, histogram trending negative
• RSI dual-line at 38-48—oversold but not extreme
• Immediate support: 3,606-3,611 (current zone)
• Next support: 3,585 (weekly pivot), then 3,557 (projected 50-day SMA)
• Resistance: 3,644-3,655 (prior support turned resistance), then 3,678-3,685

Daily View:

• Clear downtrend from October highs above 3,900
• MACD at -30.7/-31.3—deeply negative, confirming trend
• RSI at 42—room for further downside before oversold territory
• Key support: 3,585-3,611 zone
• Resistance: 3,640-3,680 first, then 3,712-3,740 (200-day SMA area)

Weekly View:

• Price at 3,611 vs. 200-week SMA at 4,177—significant discount
• RSI at 33-35—approaching weekly oversold levels
• This is the first test of 2024 lows; a break below opens 3,500
• Support: 3,600-3,610 (current), then 3,500, then 3,400 (2023 support)
• Resistance: 3,710-3,778, then 3,831 (20-week SMA)

Takeaway: The peso is in a firmly bullish trend (dollar-bearish). Bounces toward 3,640-3,680 are likely to encounter sellers. A sustained break below 3,600 would signal an acceleration toward mid-3,500s.

Technical Levels: COLCAP

Despite Monday’s 2.11% drop, the longer-term uptrend remains intact. The index has risen from below 1,500 in early 2024 to above 2,400—an extraordinary run that leaves momentum stretched.

Weekly View:

• Index at 2,422.51, near all-time highs
• RSI at 78-79—firmly overbought
• MACD elevated at +161.87—trend strong but momentum extended
• Support: 2,400 (psychological), then 2,300-2,306 (20-week SMA)
• Resistance: 2,475-2,490 (recent highs)

Daily View:

• Pullback from 2,475 highs
• RSI at 64-82 range—cooling from overbought
• MACD positive but histogram narrowing
• Support: 2,380-2,400, then 2,306 (50-day SMA)
• Resistance: 2,475 (prior high)

4-Hour View:

• Consolidation between 2,400 and 2,475
• RSI at 52-73—neutral to slightly overbought
• MACD histogram turning negative short-term
• Key levels: Support at 2,410-2,427, Resistance at 2,462-2,475

Takeaway: Monday’s drop is a healthy correction within an uptrend. As long as 2,300-2,306 holds, the bullish structure remains intact. However, stretched momentum suggests more consolidation or mild pullback before the next leg higher.

What to Watch Tuesday

1. Global Risk Tone: Will precious metals stabilize or extend losses? Gold’s behavior will directly impact Mineros and sentiment.
2. Dollar Index: A bounce in DXY from 4-year lows would pressure the peso; failure to bounce confirms the structural shift.
3. US Government Shutdown: The partial shutdown is expected to be brief, but the January jobs report (scheduled for Friday) has been delayed indefinitely.
4. RBA Decision (overnight): Australia’s central bank is expected to raise rates to 3.85%—a hawkish surprise could ripple through EM FX.
5. US-Iran Developments: Friday’s meeting could further deflate the oil risk premium if talks progress.

The Practical Takeaway

For COP traders: The peso’s rally has been powerful, but the move to 3,611 leaves the pair extended. A technical bounce toward 3,640-3,680 is possible if global risk stabilizes, but the trend favors selling rallies rather than buying dips. A break below 3,600 opens the door to mid-3,500s.

For COLCAP investors: Monday’s drop was a shakeout, not a trend change. The January rally lifted the index too far, too fast, and a pullback to the 2,300-2,350 zone would represent a healthier base.

Mineros exposure is high-risk near-term given precious metals volatility; financials may remain under pressure if the risk-off tone persists.

Cross-Asset Context: Colombia continues to benefit from the broader Latin America re-rating as capital rotates out of US assets and into EM.

This structural tailwind can persist even through short-term volatility—but only if the dollar’s decline continues. If Warsh’s nomination signals a more hawkish Fed and the dollar stabilizes, the EM bid may pause.

Data Snapshot