The S&P/BMV IPC rose 0.35% to 71,390.10, its third consecutive gain, leaving the index just 0.29% below its 2026 high of 71,601.35. The session was calm and constructive despite the Nvidia-led selloff on Wall Street, with 216 million shares trading and LargeCap names leading gains while MidCap lagged. The index has now climbed 10.8% year-to-date and sits 15.5% above the 200-day SMA, confirming the secular uptrend remains intact.
The peso held steady near MXN 17.16–17.18 per dollar, consolidating below last week’s 17.28 high and continuing its post-SCOTUS strength. The Banxico FIX was set at MXN 17.2563. The Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling striking down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs dropped the effective US tariff rate from ~16% to ~9%, and the T-MEC exemption shields 85% of Mexican exports from the new 10–15% Section 122 duties that expire July 24.
Banxico subgobernadora Galia Borja signaled on February 25 that the central bank has room for further rate cuts, citing weak domestic demand and peso strength. With the economy growing just 0.8% in 2025 — the worst since the pandemic — and the Q4 GDP print revised up to only 1.8% annually, the case for resuming the easing cycle as early as March 26 is building, even as core inflation at 4.52% remains stubbornly above target.
Key Indicators — February 26, 2026
| Indicator | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/BMV IPC | 71,390.10 | +0.35% |
| IPC Weekly | — | +0.78% |
| IPC YTD | — | +10.8% |
| Distance from 2026 High (71,601) | — | −0.29% |
| 52-Week Range | 49,799–72,111 | — |
| USD/MXN Spot | 17.16–17.18 | Flat |
| USD/MXN FIX (Banxico) | 17.2563 | — |
| Peso YoY | — | +14.5% vs. 1Y ago |
| Banxico Rate | 7.00% | Paused Feb 5 |
| Inflation (Jan 2026) | 3.79% | Core: 4.52% |
| WTI Crude | $65.25 | −0.29% |
| Brent Crude | $70.85 | −1.54% |
| S&P 500 | 6,908.86 | −0.54% |
| Nasdaq | 22,878.38 | −1.18% |
| DXY | 97.80 | +0.18% |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $5,173 | −0.65% |
BMV Shrugs Off Nvidia Selloff, Builds on Third Straight Gain
The Mexican market’s resilience on Thursday was notable. While the Nasdaq shed 1.18% and Nvidia tumbled 5% in a classic sell-the-news reaction to blockbuster earnings, the IPC quietly extended its winning streak. Over 216 million shares changed hands in a session characterized by steady accumulation rather than conviction buying, with the intraday range of just 0.9% (70,795 to 71,440) reflecting the tightest daily band in weeks.
LargeCap names outperformed, while MidCap and SmallCap indices lagged, suggesting institutional capital continues to favor the heavyweight constituents of the IPC. The real estate (Fibras) segment also posted gains. CEMEX held its annual CEMEX Day 2026 event on February 26, while VISTA Oil & Gas delivered its Q4 2025 earnings webcast. VINTE was scheduled to report Q4 results after the close.
The IPC’s 2025 performance of +29.88% — the best in 15 years — has set a high bar for 2026, but the YTD gain of 10.8% in just under two months suggests momentum is far from exhausted. The index has now surpassed the 71,000-point level that analysts at major brokerages like Actinver and GBM targeted as the 2026 objective, and the question is whether the next leg takes it decisively through the 71,600 zone or whether consolidation sets in first.
Super Peso Consolidates Post-SCOTUS Gains as Rate Cut Signals Emerge
The peso traded in a narrow range around MXN 17.16–17.18 on Thursday, well within the monthly band of 17.08–17.57, and down over 14% year-over-year against the dollar. The SCOTUS ruling on February 20 — striking down Trump’s use of the IEEPA to impose tariffs without Congressional authorization — has been the single most important tailwind for the peso in 2026. With $142 billion in disputed tariff revenue now potentially subject to refund, and 85% of Mexican exports protected under T-MEC from the replacement 10–15% Section 122 duties, the trade risk premium has been substantially compressed.
Banxico held its rate at 7.00% on February 5 — the first pause since June 2024 after twelve consecutive cuts from 11.00% — as the Junta de Gobierno evaluated the impact of new IEPS taxes on cigarettes and soft drinks, and the 5–50% tariffs on Chinese and non-treaty imports effective January 1. Inflation printed 3.79% in January, up from 3.69% in December, while core inflation rose to 4.52% — its highest since March 2024 — driven by food, beverages, and tobacco.
However, subgobernadora Borja’s February 25 comments to Bloomberg changed the tone. She argued that weak consumer spending, falling investment, and the strong peso all point to insufficient demand-side pressure to justify keeping rates in restrictive territory much longer. Banorte expects a 25 bps cut in March and a terminal rate of 6.50%, while HSBC and Santander see the rate staying at 7.00% all year. The next decision is March 26. Banxico released its quarterly inflation report on February 26, now projecting convergence to the 3% target in Q2 2027 rather than Q3 2026.
Bullish Structure Intact as IPC Tests Record Territory
Thursday’s candle was a small-bodied bullish bar opening at 71,026.28, dipping to 70,795.17 before rallying to 71,440.27 and closing near the session high at 71,390.10 (+245.75 points). The price action shows buying interest on dips, with the lower wick suggesting support near the Bollinger midline around 71,086. The close above the midline and within the upper half of the Bollinger envelope is constructive.
RSI sits at 62.91 (slow) and 61.35 (fast), both comfortably in bullish territory but not yet overbought. The MACD remains positive at 1,104.99 over the signal line at 944.14, though the histogram at −160.85 indicates momentum is decelerating from its mid-January peak. This is consistent with consolidation near highs rather than distribution — the index is digesting the massive January rally (from ~64,100 to ~71,600) before deciding on the next move.
The 200-day SMA at approximately 61,811.86 sits 15.5% below the current price, underscoring the strength of the secular trend. The index has been above this long-term average since the rally began in late 2025, and any pullback toward the 68,000–69,000 zone would represent a healthy retest of the lower Bollinger Band without breaking the trend.
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 72,752.75 | Upper Bollinger Band |
| Resistance 2 | 72,111.41 | 52-week high |
| Resistance 1 | 71,601.35 | 2026 YTD high (Feb 12) |
| Current Close | 71,390.10 | Feb 26 close |
| Support 1 | 71,086.61 | Mid-Bollinger Band |
| Support 2 | 69,789.73 | Lower Bollinger Band |
| Support 3 | 61,811.86 | 200-day SMA |
Nvidia Sell-the-News Drags Wall Street; Oil Soft on Iran Talks
The S&P 500 fell 0.54% to 6,908.86, with the Nasdaq shedding 1.18% to 22,878.38 as Nvidia dropped 5% despite beating estimates ($1.62 EPS vs. $1.53 est., $68.13B revenue vs. $66.21B est.). The Dow eked out a 0.03% gain at 49,499.20. The majority of S&P 500 constituents actually rose on the session, but Nvidia’s sheer weight dragged the tech-heavy indices lower — its largest single-day drop since April 2025.
Oil retreated as US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva showed signs of progress, softening the geopolitical risk premium. Brent fell 1.54% to $70.85 and WTI settled at $65.25. For Mexico’s fiscal position and Pemex, oil near $65 remains a headwind — the 2026 budget was built around higher price assumptions. Gold slipped $34 to $5,173 as the DXY firmed 0.18% to 97.80. Bitcoin fell to $67,730, its fourth consecutive loss.
Trade Balance, Banxico Report, and July T-MEC Review Loom Large
Friday brings Mexico’s January trade balance data, which will provide the first read on how the new tariff regime (5–50% on non-treaty imports) is affecting import volumes. Banxico’s Q4 2025 quarterly report, published on February 26, will be closely parsed for any shift in tone on the rate path ahead of the March 26 decision.
The dominant macro theme for the IPC remains the T-MEC review scheduled for July 2026, which coincides with the expiration of Trump’s Section 122 tariffs on July 24. Mexico enters the negotiation from a strengthened position after the SCOTUS ruling and the abatement of CJNG leader “El Mencho” in a joint US-Mexico operation — both of which burnish Mexico’s standing as a cooperative security partner. However, the White House is preparing Section 201 and 301 investigations that could yield more permanent tariff structures, and the automotive sector remains exposed under Section 232.
Domestically, Sheinbaum’s electoral reform initiative heading to Congress and the recently approved workweek reduction are on investors’ radar for their potential impact on business costs and institutional confidence. The January employment data (ENOE), released February 26, will round out the macro picture.
Mexico delivered a remarkably steady session against a volatile global backdrop. The IPC’s ability to grind higher while the Nasdaq was selling off hard speaks to a market driven by domestic fundamentals — strong earnings momentum from the 2025 cycle, a credible Banxico easing path, and the structural tailwind of the SCOTUS ruling defanging Trump’s tariff weaponry.
The risk calendar is front-loaded toward July: the T-MEC review, Section 122 expiration, and potential Section 301 investigations could create a volatility spike for Mexican assets. But for now, the market is pricing in the most benign scenario — T-MEC continuity, gradual rate normalization, and peso stability. At 10.8% YTD, the IPC is one of the best-performing equity indices in emerging markets.
Technically, the IPC is consolidating just below record territory with RSI at 62 and the MACD still positive. The setup favors a breakout above 71,601 toward the upper Bollinger Band at 72,752, though the decelerating histogram warns that the move may lack the conviction of January’s surge. A retreat to the 69,800 lower band would be a buying opportunity within the intact trend.