BMV / S&P/BMV IPC Daily Report • March 10, 2026 • Covering March 9 Session
The Big Three
The S&P/BMV IPC fell 0.63% to 66,890.27, extending losses to a third consecutive session as Iran war jitters gripped global markets. The index plunged as much as 2.8% intraday to 65,427 before recovering sharply after President Trump declared the conflict “almost complete,” trimming the day’s decline significantly. The prior week was devastating: the IPC shed 5.22%, falling from 71,487 to 67,681, its steepest weekly loss in months. The index now sits 7.2% below its 52-week high of 72,111.
The peso staged a remarkable intraday reversal, recovering from a breach of 18.00 per dollar to close at 17.65 — a 0.85% gain. The currency had weakened to its worst level since September 2025 in early trading as oil prices spiked and risk aversion surged. The recovery came after Trump’s comments calmed markets and as Mexico’s status as an oil producer provided a partial offset to the broader EM selloff. Banxico FIX for Friday stood at 17.6770.
Mexico’s February inflation rose to 4.02%, above consensus of 3.94% and the prior 3.79%, breaking seven months within Banxico’s target range. The surprise uptick, driven by the non-core agropecuario component, arrives at the worst possible moment: with oil prices surging toward $100/bbl, analysts now expect Banxico to hold rates steady at its March meeting rather than resume its easing cycle. The policy rate stands at 9.50% after a 50 bps cut on February 6.
01 Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Change |
| S&P/BMV IPC Close | 66,890.27 | −0.63% |
| IPC Prior Week | 67,681 (Mar 6) | −5.22% w/w |
| IPC 52-Wk High | 72,111.41 | −7.2% from high |
| USD/MXN (close) | 17.65 | −0.85% (MXN strengthens) |
| Banxico FIX (Mar 7) | 17.6770 | DOF reference |
| Banxico Policy Rate | 9.50% | −50 bps (Feb 6) |
| CPI (Feb, annual) | 4.02% | +0.23pp vs prior |
| WTI Crude (Mon close) | ~$90/bbl | +4.26% |
| Brent Crude (Mon) | ~$100/bbl | −2.72% (off highs) |
| S&P 500 (Mon) | — | Recovered late (Trump) |
| FTSE-BIVA | 1,327.78 | −0.70% |
| DXY | ~98.9 | −0.12% |
02 Key Movers
| Stock | Change | Note |
| Televisa | +3.86% | Session leader; closed at $10.50 |
| Megacable | −2.88% | Session laggard; closed at $60.78 |
| Chedraui B (weekly) | −3.33% | Retail under pressure; prior Fri worst IPC name |
| PINFRA (prior Fri) | +4.19% | All-time high at $282.38; infrastructure play |
| Grupo México B (prior Fri) | +3.47% | Mining/commodities bid on geopolitical risk |
| Grupo Carso A1 (prior Fri) | −2.83% | Conglomerate selloff; closed at $123.80 |
03 Market Commentary
Monday’s session on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores was a tale of two halves. The S&P/BMV IPC opened at 67,180.14, gapped down immediately, and plunged 2.8% to an intraday low of 65,426.98 as the Iran war escalation sent oil prices surging past $100/bbl and triggered a global wave of risk aversion. Asian markets had already set the tone — Nikkei −7%, KOSPI −8% with circuit breakers, S&P 500 futures −1.7%.
The turnaround came after President Trump declared the Iran conflict “almost complete” and signaled plans to control oil prices. Markets responded with relief: the IPC recovered over two-thirds of its losses to close at 66,890.27 (−0.63%), while Wall Street ended in the green with tech stocks leading the bounce (AMD +5.33%, Micron +5.14%, Broadcom +4.62%). Laura Torres of IMB Capital Quants noted that the BMV “reflected selling pressure from the start in line with international volatility from the US-Iran escalation,” with the Mexican market showing “sensitivity in an environment of simultaneous external and internal pressure.”
The prior week was brutal. The IPC fell 5.22% from 71,487 to 67,681, marking its worst weekly performance in months. The selloff was driven by Iran war fears, a deteriorating US labor market (−92,000 payrolls), and the peso’s weakness toward the 18.00 psychological barrier. Friday’s close of 67,681 (after an intraday low of 67,285) set the stage for Monday’s continued volatility.
Notably, the BMV was unable to fully participate in the late-session global recovery that lifted Wall Street into the green. While the index clawed back from −2.8% to −0.63%, it still closed down for a third consecutive session — underperforming both Wall Street and the Colombian COLCAP (+2.31%), which benefited from a domestic election catalyst that Mexico lacked.
04 Currency
The peso’s Monday session was equally dramatic. USD/MXN opened at 17.79, spiked through the psychologically critical 18.00 barrier in early trading — its weakest level since September 2025 — before staging a sharp reversal to close at 17.65, a gain of 0.85% for the peso. The Banxico FIX reference rate for Friday March 7 was set at 17.6770 per DOF.
Felipe Mendoza of EBC Financial Group attributed the initial weakness to “greater global risk aversion, with investors seeking refuge in the dollar” amid the Iran escalation and Brent surging past $100/bbl. Grupo Financiero Monex ranked the peso 16th among EM currencies in terms of losses at the session open. However, the peso was ultimately the best-performing major EM currency by day’s end, recovering aggressively after Trump’s ceasefire comments.
The February inflation print of 4.02% (vs 3.94% consensus, 3.79% prior) complicates the picture. The headline reading broke seven consecutive months within Banxico’s ±1% target band around 3%, driven by non-core agricultural prices. Combined with oil above $90/bbl and the peso’s volatility, analysts now expect Banxico to pause its easing cycle at its March meeting, keeping the policy rate at 9.50% rather than delivering another 50 bps cut.
05 Technical Analysis
Daily (1D):
Monday’s candle (O: 67,180.14, H: 67,180.14, L: 65,426.98, C: 66,890.27) produced a bearish session with a notable long lower wick. The open equaling the high indicates immediate selling pressure from the first tick, while the extended wick down to 65,427 (a −2.8% intraday drop) followed by a recovery close near 66,890 shows that buyers emerged aggressively at lower levels. The candle pattern resembles a hammer, which is typically a bullish reversal signal when it occurs during a downtrend.
The MACD is bearish: MACD line at 437.60, signal at −187.30, and histogram at −624.90. The divergence between the positive MACD line and the deeply negative histogram reflects the sharp recent correction from elevated levels. The histogram has contracted from even deeper negative territory, suggesting momentum may be stabilizing. A bullish crossover is not yet in view but the rate of deterioration is slowing.
The RSI reads 53.60 (fast) and 37.56 (slow). The divergence between the two components is notable: the fast RSI remains above 50 (neutral), while the slow RSI at 37.56 approaches oversold territory, reflecting the violence of the recent selloff. The 200-day SMA sits at 62,190.93, still 7.0% below the current close, confirming the longer-term bullish trend remains structurally intact. Key overhead resistance is at 67,620–67,957 (declining short-term MAs) and 68,659–68,769 (mid-Bollinger / prior support-turned-resistance).
| Level | Points | Reference |
| R3 | 68,769.20 | Upper Bollinger / prior consolidation |
| R2 | 68,658.66 | Mid-Bollinger / horizontal resistance |
| R1 | 67,619.72 | Declining MA / immediate resistance |
| Close | 66,890.27 | Mar 9 close |
| S1 | 66,000 | Psychological / lower Bollinger |
| S2 | 65,427 | Monday intraday low |
| 200-Day SMA | 62,190.93 | Long-term trend support |
06 Forward Look
Oil — Mexico’s Mixed Blessing:
Mexico is Latin America’s second-largest oil producer, and higher crude prices support Pemex revenues and the fiscal balance. However, unlike Colombia’s more direct equity-market linkage via Ecopetrol, Mexico’s COLCAP-weighted energy exposure is limited. The bigger risk is the inflationary pass-through: oil above $90/bbl will push gasoline and transport costs higher, compounding the already-elevated 4.02% headline CPI. If Brent sustains above $100, Banxico faces a stark dilemma between supporting growth and fighting inflation — a bind that would keep rates elevated and pressure rate-sensitive sectors in the IPC.
Inflation Surprise — Banxico on Hold?
February’s 4.02% headline CPI was the first reading above Banxico’s ±1% variability band around the 3% target in seven months. The non-core agricultural component spiked to its highest level in eight months. With oil prices adding further upside risk to the inflation trajectory, the market now prices a near-certain pause at Banxico’s March meeting. The policy rate at 9.50% (after February’s 50 bps cut) provides a substantial carry advantage, but further easing is off the table until inflation risks recede.
US Macro Calendar — Week of March 10:
US CPI (Wednesday), housing data (Thursday), and Q4 GDP plus PCE deflator (Friday) are the key events. Mexico’s deep trade integration with the US means that any surprise in US inflation or growth data will have outsized effects on the peso and BMV. The T-MEC renegotiation timeline and Trump’s tariff posture remain structural overhangs. The US payrolls shock (−92,000 jobs) has increased the probability of a Fed cut by June, which would narrow the US-Mexico rate differential and support the peso.
Trump’s Comments as Market Catalyst:
Monday’s dramatic reversal was triggered by Trump’s statement that the Iran war is “almost complete.” If confirmed, this would defuse the oil shock and likely spark a sharp rally in the IPC, with the index potentially reclaiming the 68,000–70,000 range quickly. However, if the conflict escalates further or the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, the IPC could retest Monday’s 65,427 low and potentially target the 62,000–63,000 zone near the 200-day SMA.
Verdict
The IPC’s −0.63% close masked a wild session that saw the index plunge 2.8% before recovering on Trump’s ceasefire comments. The peso’s parallel recovery from above 18.00 to 17.65 was equally dramatic. However, the underlying picture is concerning: a 5.22% weekly loss, inflation surprising to the upside at 4.02%, and Banxico now expected to pause its easing cycle. Mexico lacks the domestic catalyst that propelled Colombia’s market on the same day.
Technically, Monday’s hammer-like candle at the 65,427 low is constructive, and the 200-day SMA at 62,190.93 (7.0% below) keeps the longer-term trend bullish. But the MACD histogram at −624.90 and the slow RSI at 37.56 confirm significant intermediate-term damage. The index needs to reclaim 67,620 (R1) and then 68,659 (R2) to neutralize the bearish setup.
Bias: BEARISH — the 5.22% weekly loss, above-consensus inflation, Banxico pause expectations, and geopolitical overhang outweigh Monday’s intraday recovery. A sustained close above 67,620 (R1) with Brent below $90 and a confirmed Iran ceasefire shifts bias to Neutral. A break below 65,427 targets the 62,000–63,000 zone near the 200-day SMA.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All data sourced from BMV, TradingView, Milenio, El Financiero, El CEO, TV Azteca, Investing.com, Infobae, Banco de México, INEGI, and other public sources. Verify all figures independently before making investment decisions.