Key Points
- USD/MXN is holding near 18.01 as the dollar index stays supported into a U.S. data-heavy week.
- The BMV’s IPC is digesting December’s record high, with gains concentrated in a few names.
- Traders frame the move as Fed-path repricing, not a wholesale shift in Mexico risk.
USD/MXN begins the week near 18.01, last 18.0124 at 08:14 UTC. The dollar index is firmer around 98.7, and traders are positioning for U.S. releases that could tilt expectations on how quickly the Fed eases.
There was no verified “rumor trade” driving price. Capital.com’s Kyle Rodda captured the tone: the market is reacting “more about what the U.S. data is going to tell us about the Fed’s policy path.”
For the peso, that matters because the trade remains carry-led: it tends to hold up when volatility is calm, but it can give ground quickly if the dollar’s rate advantage reasserts itself.
The last full cash session—Friday, January 2, Mexico’s first session of 2026—showed that resilience. Monex said the peso closed at 17.90 per dollar, up 0.50% on the day, after trading 17.86–18.01, even as DXY ended slightly higher (+0.10%).
Mexico’s key fundamental print was softer remittances: $5.125 billion in November, down 5.7% year on year, trimming a major, steady FX inflow.
Your charts also argue for “bounce, not break.” The 4-hour RSI is about 58 while the daily RSI sits near 45, consistent with a short-term rebound inside a broader daily downtrend. Support is 18.00 then 17.95; resistance is 18.04–18.05, then 18.16.
Equities are consolidating too. The S&P/BMV IPC ended Friday at 64,141.36, down 0.26% on the day and 2.28% on the week, stepping back from the December 26 record of 65,636.36. Turnover was light at roughly MXN 6.582 billion across about 93.0 million shares.
Offshore, iShares’ EWW held about $1.91 billion in net assets; Jan. 2 volume was 1.72 million shares (30-day average 1.34 million) with a $69.61 NAV. Investors continue to pay for rule-based policy and fiscal restraint.
Top IPC winners (Jan 2): Gfnorte +2.5%, Tlevisa +2.1%, Mega +1.8%, Bolsa +1.4%, Q +0.6%.
Top losers: Gentera -1.3%, Gap -1.3%, Sigmaf -2.0%, Lacomer -2.3%, Peñoles -4.1%.