Mexico IPC Flat at 70,845 for 4th Straight Loss as Banxico Signals March Cut

Thursday’s session was all about Gruma. The world’s largest tortilla flour producer crashed 7.19% after its Q4 2025 results missed consensus badly — net income fell 18% to US$126.6 million while EBITDA contracted 5% to US$277.7 million. Analysts at Bx+ flagged weakness in the US consumer segment, though management guided for cost normalization in H1 2026. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexican markets and Latin American financial news.

The Gruma-led selloff marked the stock’s worst single day since October 7, 2024, when it tumbled 7.57%. GBM Research called the results “neutral” but acknowledged margin pressure from Mexico operations and a slight contraction in the US division.

Beyond Gruma, the damage was widespread but shallow. Megacable fell 2.8%, Bimbo dropped 2.3%, Gentera lost 2.23%, and Chedraui shed 2.21%. The IPC opened at 70,771.22 and traded in a tight 581-point range between a high of 71,284.51 and a low of 70,703.20.

Volume was healthy at 180.6 million titles for a value of MXN 17.55 billion (approximately US$1.015 billion). The fourth consecutive decline leaves the IPC down 0.9% for the week, though it remains up 10.17% year-to-date — a remarkable buffer.

Earnings season continues with Grupo Bimbo reporting Q4 on February 26 and América Móvil — the second-largest IPC component — expected imminently. Both results will be crucial for the index’s direction given the current proximity to all-time highs.

The peso weakened for a second straight session, closing at 17.2768 per dollar according to Banxico data — a depreciation of 0.26% or 4.49 centavos from the prior close. The FIX was set at 17.27. Banco Base’s Gabriela Siller attributed the move to Wednesday’s Fed minutes, which she said reflected an “increasingly restrictive tone” from officials willing to raise rates if inflation persists.

The dollar also found support from US–Iran tensions, with 150 military cargo flights moving weapons systems to the Middle East over 24 hours. The DXY gained 0.19% to 97.89, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index (BBDXY) rose 0.16% to 1,191.08.

Thursday’s main event was Banxico’s minutes from the February 5 decision, which held rates at 7.00% unanimously after twelve consecutive cuts totaling 425bp from the 11.25% peak. The minutes exposed a clear divide on the board about when to resume cutting.

One board member argued the pause “could be shorter than expected” given that IEPS and tariff impacts appear transitory and focused. Another pushed back sharply, insisting the board should show patience through at least H1 2026 before cutting again. The split echoes the broader market debate: Banamex now expects cuts to resume as soon as March, pulled forward from their prior May call, while others see the board holding through June.

January inflation came in at 3.79% headline (up from 3.69% in December), with core inflation accelerating to 4.52% — its highest since March 2024. Banxico has pushed its 3% convergence target from Q3 2026 to Q2 2027, forecasting general inflation at 3.5% and core at 3.4% for year-end. GDP growth in 2025 was estimated at just 0.5%.

The daily chart shows the IPC consolidating after four consecutive red candles, but the structural uptrend remains firmly intact. Price closed at 70,845.66, well above the 200-day SMA at 61,460.09 — a 15.3% cushion that underscores the magnitude of the rally since mid-2025.

The index is trading within the upper portion of the Ichimoku cloud, with the cloud offering support in the 67,286–67,458 zone. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are converging near 70,015–70,195, suggesting a consolidation phase before the next directional move.

The RSI reads 63.00 on the main oscillator and 60.49 on the secondary — moderately bullish territory, cooling from the overbought readings above 70 seen during the January rally. There is still room to run before reaching overheated levels.

The MACD histogram has deepened its negative turn to −90.86, with the MACD line at 1,292.93 and signal at 1,202.07. While the magnitude of the negative histogram has widened from Wednesday’s −39.24, the MACD lines remain well in positive territory, indicating this is a pullback within a bullish trend rather than a reversal.

Wall Street sold off Thursday as the FOMC minutes hangover combined with weak Walmart guidance. The S&P 500 fell 0.28% to 6,861.89, the Dow dropped 0.54% to 49,395.16, and the Nasdaq lost 0.31%. Eight of eleven S&P sectors finished in the red, led by financials, consumer discretionary, and tech.

The only bright spot was Deere, which surged 11.6% after earnings. Walmart fell 1.4% despite beating revenue estimates after its cautious 2026 outlook spooked investors. Software names including Salesforce, Intuit, and Cadence declined 1.3–2.8% on renewed AI disruption fears.

Oil prices held their Wednesday surge. Brent edged up 0.3% to US$70.58 and WTI gained 0.4% to US$65.44 as US–Iran tensions remained elevated. The Pentagon intensified its military buildup in the region with over 150 cargo flights, though diplomatic talks continued in parallel.

For Mexico, elevated oil is a mixed blessing: it supports Pemex and fiscal revenues, but the country now imports nearly half its gasoline, meaning rising crude also feeds into consumer inflation through import costs — an unwelcome dynamic with core CPI already at 4.52%.

Gold spot crossed US$5,015 (+2.2%), extending its recovery from the post-ATH selloff. The DXY’s modest 0.19% gain to 97.89 kept pressure on EM currencies broadly, with the Mexican peso among the underperformers in Banco Base’s regional basket.

Friday brings the crucial US PCE inflation report — the Fed’s preferred gauge. A hot reading would reinforce the hawkish FOMC minutes narrative and pressure both the peso and the IPC. US Q4 GDP data is also due.

Domestically, the earnings calendar heats up with Grupo Bimbo on February 26 and América Móvil expected soon. Banxico’s next policy meeting is March 26 — and after today’s dovish minutes, market odds for a 25bp cut have risen sharply.

The T-MEC renegotiation timeline and Trump’s tariff rhetoric remain the dominant tail risk. The US–Iran standoff adds another layer of uncertainty, particularly for oil-sensitive economies. The FIFA World Cup 2026 tailwind is beginning to feature in analyst models, with infrastructure spending expected to support GDP in the second half.

For regional context, see the Brazil’s Ibovespa report: Brazil’s Ibovespa.

For regional context, see the Argentina’s Merval report: Argentina’s Merval.