The Big Three
Merval plunges −4.1% to cap worst February in years. The index closed at 2,642,105, equivalent to just US$1,809 on a CCL-adjusted basis (−3.5%). In dollar terms, the Merval shed 15.5% in February and is now down 9.6% year-to-date. Banco Macro (−8.3%), Supervielle (−7.7%), and YPF (−7.3%) led the carnage.
Riesgo país surges to 572 bps as bonds bleed. Country risk jumped 18 units on Friday alone, reaching the highest since January 14. Sovereign bonds in dollars fell 0.8% on average, with Globales GD30 (−1.4%) and GD29 (−1.3%) leading losses. Yet the BCRA continued buying, accumulating US$2,713M in 38 consecutive sessions.
Iran crisis poses double-edged sword for Argentina Monday. Joint U.S.–Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei over the weekend, sending Brent surging 13% toward $80/bbl. For Argentina, higher oil prices boost Vaca Muerta export revenues (YPF targets US$14B in 2026 energy exports) but the global risk-off impulse threatens already-fragile equity and bond markets.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval Close | 2,642,105 | −4.1% |
| Merval in USD (CCL) | US$1,809 | −3.5% |
| Merval Monthly (Feb, USD) | — | −15.5% |
| Merval YTD (USD) | — | −9.6% |
| Riesgo País (JP Morgan) | 572 bps | +18 units |
| Dollar Official (BNA sell) | ARS 1,425 | −3.1% (Feb) |
| Dollar Blue | ARS 1,435 | −ARS 45 (Feb) |
| Dollar MEP | ARS 1,437.58 | −2.8% (Feb) |
| Dollar CCL | ARS 1,480.68 | −2.2% (Feb) |
| BCRA Net Purchases (2026) | US$2,713M | 38 consecutive |
| BCRA Gross Reserves | US$45,560M | +US$1,058M (Feb) |
| Brent Crude (Feb 27) | $72.87 | +2.87% |
| S&P 500 | 6,878.88 | −0.43% |
| Argentina CPI (Jan) | 2.9% | ↑ from 2.8% |
| Bitcoin (Feb 27) | $65,669 | −1.57% |
Equities — Banks Lead Merval Into the Abyss
The S&P Merval plunged 4.1% to close at 2,642,105, its sixth consecutive session of losses and its lowest close since early January. On a CCL-adjusted basis, the index fell 3.5% to US$1,809. February’s damage in dollar terms was devastating: the Merval shed 15.5% for the month, erasing weeks of Milei-era optimism and bringing the YTD loss to 9.6%.
Banks bore the brunt of Friday’s selloff. Banco Macro crashed 8.3%, Grupo Supervielle fell 7.7%, and BBVA Argentina dropped 7.2%. YPF slid 7.3% after reporting Q4 2025 losses of US$649 million (full-year loss: US$799 million), attributed to oil and derivative price shifts and a deceleration in gas sales. YPF’s ADR in New York fell 2.8% to US$35.28. Argentine ADRs collectively lost up to 25% in February, with Supervielle’s ADR dropping 6.3% on Friday alone.
Adcap analyst Matías Cattaruzzi attributed the losses primarily to external factors: global risk-off driven by AI disruption fears, falling commodity prices, and tech sector weakness, particularly impacting Globant. Domestically, the reform narrative remained constructive — the Senate approved the labor reform on Friday — but it was insufficient to offset the Wall Street drag.
Currency — Dollars Down, Bonds Down, Reserves Up
February produced one of the most paradoxical months in recent Argentine financial history: the dollar fell across all channels even as equities and bonds hemorrhaged. The official dollar at Banco Nación closed Friday at ARS 1,425, down ARS 45 (−3.1%) for the month. The blue dollar ended at ARS 1,435, making it the cheapest parallel rate for the first time. The MEP settled at ARS 1,437.58 (−2.8% in Feb), and the CCL at ARS 1,480.68 (−2.2%).
The BCRA’s relentless reserve accumulation underpinned the peso’s strength. The central bank purchased US$31 million on Friday alone, extending its buying streak to 38 consecutive sessions and accumulating US$2,713 million since the year began. February net purchases reached US$1,555 million, surpassing January’s US$1,157 million. Gross reserves ended at US$45,560 million despite a technical ARS 796 million drop on Friday linked to month-end encaje adjustments.
The riesgo país told a different story. JP Morgan’s EMBI spread for Argentina surged 18 units to 572 basis points, hitting an intraday high of 576 — the highest since January 14 and erasing its 2026 improvement. Sovereign bonds in dollars fell 0.8% on average, with Globales GD30 and GD29 leading the decline. However, the Treasury successfully placed US$250 million of the new Bonar 2027 (AO27) at a 5.89% yield, suggesting appetite for Argentine credit remains intact at the right price.
Technical Analysis — S&P Merval Daily
The daily chart paints an unambiguously bearish picture. Friday’s candle (O: 2,754,419, H: 2,783,191, L: 2,635,350, C: 2,642,105) was a large-bodied red candle that closed near its session low, confirming persistent selling pressure with no buyer defense into the close.
The MACD is deeply negative: the signal line reads −24,717, the MACD line −59,794, and the histogram −84,511 — the widest negative divergence of the correction. This confirms that downside momentum is accelerating, not stabilizing. RSI at 40.12/33.08 is approaching the oversold boundary at 30, suggesting the index may be due for a technical bounce, but oversold conditions can persist during trend changes.
Price has crashed through the Ichimoku cloud and now trades well below both the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen. The cloud itself has turned red (bearish), indicating the medium-term outlook has shifted from bullish to neutral-bearish. The 200-day SMA at approximately 2,446,781 remains the structural support that separates a correction from a trend reversal — the Merval still trades 8% above this critical level.
Key Levels
| Level | Merval | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 2,965,926 | Feb upper shelf |
| Resistance 2 | 2,863,043 | Ichimoku cloud zone |
| Resistance 1 | 2,780,392 | Kijun-sen / former support |
| Last Close | 2,642,105 | — |
| Support 1 | 2,612,321 | Recent horizontal support |
| Support 2 | 2,446,781 | 200-day SMA |
| Support 3 | 2,200,000 | September breakout zone |
Global Context
Wall Street closed February in the red, with the S&P 500 down 0.43% on Friday at 6,878.88, the Dow falling 1.05%, and the Nasdaq shedding 0.92%. Hotter-than-expected U.S. PPI data (headline +0.5% vs +0.3% expected, core +0.8% vs +0.3%) reinforced concerns that tariff-driven inflation will keep the Fed on hold longer. The Nasdaq dropped 3.4% for the month, its worst February in years.
The weekend brought the biggest geopolitical shock in decades: joint U.S.–Israeli military strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei. Brent surged 13% to approximately $80/bbl, S&P 500 futures fell 1.3%, Dow futures dropped 627 points, and gold spiked 3.3–3.5%. The Strait of Hormuz faces potential disruption.
For Argentina, the oil surge is a rare silver lining. YPF president Horacio Marín projected US$13.5–14 billion in energy exports for 2026, up from US$11 billion in 2025, with the VMOS pipeline reaching 50% completion. Higher crude prices directly benefit Vaca Muerta economics and accelerate the Argentina LNG project timeline. However, global risk-off will pressure Argentine ADRs, widen country risk, and test the carry trade that has been the peso’s primary support pillar.
Looking Ahead
The Iran crisis will dominate Monday’s open. Argentine ADRs in New York will be the first signal — expect banks and Globant to face the heaviest selling. Domestically, the freshly-approved labor reform is a medium-term positive for investment sentiment, reducing indemnification costs, capping union contributions, and offering payroll tax cuts for small businesses. The IMF’s second review of Argentina’s US$20 billion program concluded its mission this week, and the outcome will be critical for bond pricing.
On the macro calendar, February CPI data (expected near January’s 2.9%) will determine whether the BCRA can resume rate cuts from the current 30–32% range. The carry trade — earning peso yield and converting to dollars — has been questioned after recent rate strategy changes, and a risk-off spike could accelerate unwinding. The BCRA’s US$2,713 million war chest provides a buffer, but gross reserves at US$45,560 million must hold for credibility. The cosecha gruesa (soybean harvest) season beginning in March should boost FX inflows, providing seasonal support for the peso.
Verdict
Argentina enters March caught between two narratives. The structural bull case — Milei’s reform agenda, labor modernization now law, IMF backing, Vaca Muerta’s export potential — remains intact. The BCRA’s 38-day buying streak and falling dollar are genuine achievements. But the market is telling a different story: a 15.5% dollar-denominated loss in February, country risk back above 570, and six straight sessions of equity losses.
Monday’s Iran shock will test the floor. The Merval at 2,642,105 still trades 8% above the 200-day SMA at 2,446,781 — that is the line where the correction narrative becomes a trend-change story. Bank stocks, already down 25% from January highs, could overshoot to the downside. The paradox is that higher oil prices are good for Argentina’s fiscal and export picture, even if they are terrible for global equity sentiment. Watch the riesgo país: if it breaks above 600, expect accelerated bond and equity selling. Below 550, the worst is likely priced in.