Latin American Pulse for Monday, April 6, 2026

Kast Meets Milei at Casa Rosada in First Foreign Trip — Security, Energy, Mining, and the Apablaza Extradition — “We Have Common Enemies” — Peru’s Final Polls Before Blackout: Keiko 18.6%, Comedian Álvarez Surges to Second, López Aliaga Falls — 35 Candidates, 6 Days to Vote — Petro Declares War on Colombia’s Central Bank After 100bps Hike to 11.25% — Calls Decision “Unconstitutional,” Pulls Finance Minister — Ecuador’s State of Exception Enters Fifth Day Across Nine Provinces — Markets Reopen After Easter

Risk Snapshot

Chile-Argentina: Kast Meets Milei at Casa Rosada — The Right-Wing Cono Sur Takes Shape

First foreign trip as president; agenda: security (“we have common enemies”), energy, mining; Apablaza extradition dominates — failed arrest in Buenos Aires Thursday, fugitive since 2023; delegation includes canciller Pérez Mackenna, Security minister Steinert, UDI secretary Coloma; bilateral at Casa Rosada this morning; Kast arrives with 34.7-43% approval and fuel crisis at home

What Happened

• —The summit: President José Antonio Kast arrived in Buenos Aires Sunday night for a quick-turnaround state visit — his first foreign trip since inauguration on March 11. This morning he will attend a breakfast at the Chilean Embassy with new ambassador Gonzalo Uriarte, lay a floral offering at the San Martín monument in Plaza San Martín, and then proceed to Casa Rosada for a private bilateral with President Javier Milei. The agenda centres on security, energy, mining, and the Apablaza extradition — continuing the tradition of Chilean presidents choosing Argentina as their first destination.
• —The Apablaza shadow: The visit is dominated by the case of Galvarino Apablaza, former leader of the Frente Patriótico Manuel Rodríguez, accused of masterminding the 1991 assassination of UDI founder Senator Jaime Guzmán. Apablaza lost his political refugee status in Argentina and police attempted to arrest him at his Buenos Aires home last Thursday — but he had already fled. Kast called him a “fugitive from justice” before boarding the plane. The UDI secretary-general Juan Antonio Coloma was added to the delegation specifically to pursue the extradition case and meet with lawyers representing Guzmán’s family. “If someone has been evading justice for so many years and now flees claiming Chile offers no fair trial guarantees, the world will know who is who,” Kast said.
• —The alignment: Before departing, Kast framed the visit in security terms: “We have common enemies today. Those common enemies attack our nations and together we must confront them.” The delegation includes canciller Francisco Pérez Mackenna, Security Minister Trinidad Steinert, and Public Works Minister Martín Arrau — a composition that signals the visit is as much about operational coordination as diplomatic symbolism. Analysts note that the Kast-Milei relationship — forged during the “Escudo de las Américas” summit with Trump and sealed with the notorious motosierra photo in December — represents the clearest right-wing ideological alignment in South America since Piñera-Macri. But Radio Universidad de Chile cautioned that “institutional depth, not personal chemistry, determines whether bilateral relationships last.”

Why It Matters

Kast arrives in Buenos Aires as the weakest new president in Chile’s polling history — with approval between 34.7% and 43% after less than a month — but his foreign policy positioning is strong. Milei just expelled Iran’s top diplomat and declared the Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organisation. Both presidents are aligned with Trump’s hemisphere agenda. And the Apablaza case gives the visit a domestic judicial urgency that elevates it above the usual first-trip courtesies. The energy and mining cooperation agenda matters too: Chile needs Argentine gas (Vaca Muerta), and Argentina needs Chilean Pacific port access for its lithium and copper exports. If today’s bilateral produces concrete commitments on any of these fronts, it will be the first substantive policy output of the Kast presidency. As covered in previous editions, Kast’s fuel crisis — MEPCO elimination, diesel +$580/litre — remains the dominant domestic constraint on his presidency.

RISK: ELEVATED

Peru: The Final Polls Are In — Keiko Leads, a Comedian Surges, and Nobody Knows What Happens Next

Ipsos (Apr 1-2): Keiko Fujimori 18.6%, Carlos Álvarez 12.1%, López Aliaga drops to 3rd; Datum (Apr 1-4): Keiko 14.5%, Álvarez 10.9%, López Aliaga 9.9%; Sensor (Apr 3-4): Keiko leads, Álvarez and López Aliaga tied at 9.2%; CPI: López Aliaga 11.7%, Keiko 10.1%; blackout begins — no polls allowed in final week; 35 candidates; second round virtually certain; debates were decisive; 40% undecided/blank/null

What Happened

• —Keiko consolidates: Across all four major polling firms — Ipsos, Datum, CPI, and Sensor — Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular leads the presidential race heading into the final week. Ipsos’s last simulacro (April 1-2) places her at 18.6% of valid votes, up from 17.3% in late March. Datum (April 1-4) gives her 14.5%. She is strongest in Lima (18.2%), the north (20.3%), the centre (22.2%), and dominates the selva (36.9%). This would be her fourth consecutive second round if she makes it — after losing the ballotage in 2011, 2016, and 2021.
• —The Álvarez surge: The biggest story of the final polls is comedian Carlos Álvarez of País para Todos, who leapt from single digits to second place in the Ipsos simulacro at 12.1% — displacing ultraconservative Rafael López Aliaga. Datum confirms the trend at 10.9%. Álvarez capitalised on his debate performance — including a viral imitation of another candidate — and is strongest in Lima (18.6%). His surge is the “Castillo 2021” risk: an outsider rising in the final stretch to shape the second-round matchup. López Aliaga, who once led several polls, has been declining for two weeks and now sits between 7% and 9.9% depending on the firm.
• —The blackout: Under Peruvian electoral law, no polls may be published in the week before the vote. The surveys released this weekend are the last the public will see before April 12. The numbers reveal extraordinary fragmentation: 35 candidates, no one above 19%, and 35-40% of voters still undecided, planning to vote blank, or intending to nullify their ballot. Only 28% of citizens consider themselves well-informed about the candidates. A second round (June 7) is virtually certain. The question that matters is who accompanies Keiko — and whether a last-minute shift can alter the answer.

Why It Matters

Peru’s election is the hemisphere’s most consequential vote of 2026, and it enters the final week with more uncertainty than any Peruvian election in memory. The Álvarez surge recalls Pedro Castillo in 2021 — who was seventh in polls 10 days out and ended up winning. The difference is that Álvarez’s trajectory is visible and measurable, whereas Castillo’s was invisible until the counting began. For markets, the key question is whether the second round produces a centre-right vs centre-right matchup (Keiko vs López Aliaga or Álvarez) or a polarised left-right contest. The Cerrón habeas corpus remains unresolved — the TC has still not ruled — but with six days left, the practical impact has passed. As covered in previous editions, Peru’s political instability is structural: any president without a legislative coalition risks being deposed. The real contest begins after April 12.

RISK: CRITICAL

Colombia: Petro vs the Central Bank — An Institutional Crisis Over 100 Basis Points

BanRep hiked 100bps to 11.25% on March 31 in a 4-3 vote; Finance Minister Ávila walked out; Petro called it “unconstitutional” and accused the board majority of being “uribista”; threatened “extraordinary measures” and “salario móvil”; deans from major universities wrote public letter defending independence; compared to Chávez by ANDI president; Claudia López called it “populist authoritarianism”; peso is world’s most appreciated currency (+17.68% vs USD); inflation projected 6.3% for 2026

What Happened

• —The hike: On March 31, the Banco de la República‘s board voted 4-3 to raise the policy rate by 100 basis points to 11.25% — the opposite of what the Petro government wanted. Finance Minister Germán Ávila walked out of the meeting before the vote, an unprecedented breach of protocol. BanRep gerente Leonardo Villar defended the decision as necessary to protect purchasing power, with inflation projected at 6.3% for 2026 and 4.8% for 2027. The Colombian peso has appreciated 17.68% against the dollar over the past year — the world’s best-performing currency — partly because high rates attract carry-trade capital.
• —Petro’s escalation: The president responded with a sustained public offensive via X. He called the rate hike “an unconstitutional act,” accused the board majority of being “uribista” (aligned with former president Uribe), compared the situation to the European Central Bank’s treatment of Greece under Syriza, and threatened “extraordinary measures” including “salario móvil” (indexed wages) and forced investment. He said the central bank “is not a dictator of the economy” and “must obey the people.” He accused 20 individuals of benefiting from the policy at the expense of all Colombians. He called on university students to debate economic policy in assemblies.
• —The backlash: The confrontation triggered an institutional defence of central bank autonomy from across the political spectrum. Deans from major universities published a joint letter on April 1 calling on all parties to “protect the autonomy of the central bank.” ANDI president Bruce Mac Master shared a Chávez video attacking central bank independence — drawing the parallel explicitly. Presidential candidate Claudia López called the pullout “populist authoritarianism.” Former president Duque accused Petro of believing his own board appointees would be “servile” and being surprised when they weren’t. Semana called it a “political earthquake.” BanRep’s Villar directly rejected the claim that the bank serves the financial sector.

Why It Matters

This is the most serious institutional confrontation of the Petro presidency. Central bank independence is the cornerstone of Colombia’s investment-grade credit story. If the market believes Petro can override BanRep — through political pressure, legislative action, or constitutional reform — the peso’s 17.68% appreciation reverses, the carry trade unwinds, and Colombia’s sovereign spread widens. The timing is political: Colombia’s presidential elections approach, and Petro’s confrontation is being read as pre-electoral positioning against the “uribista” establishment. The Chávez comparison — introduced by business leaders, not the opposition — is particularly damaging because Venezuela’s central bank destruction is the hemisphere’s cautionary tale. COLCAP closed at 2,280.95 before Easter. Monday’s reopening will be the market’s first verdict on the crisis. As covered in previous editions, Colombia’s C-390 Millennium purchase from Brazil signals Petro building alternative alliances — but today’s central bank fight is the domestic risk that matters most for investors.

RISK: CRITICAL

Ecuador: State of Exception Enters Fifth Day — Nine Provinces Under Military-Police Operations

Decreto 353 (April 2): Guayas, Manabí, Pichincha, Esmeraldas, El Oro, Los Ríos, Santa Elena, Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Sucumbíos plus four cantons; domicile inviolability and correspondence privacy suspended; no curfew; joint ops authorised; follows toque de queda that ended March 30; FBI permanent presence; US joint anti-narco operations; Army destroyed clandestine airstrip; Semana Santa tourism absorbed the shock

What Happened

• —Day five: Ecuador’s state of exception — declared April 2 under Decreto Ejecutivo 353 — enters its fifth day covering approximately 70% of the national population across nine provinces and four cantons. The suspension of domicile inviolability allows joint military-police raids without prior judicial authorisation when there are indications of armed groups, weapons, explosives, or narcotrafficking. Unlike the previous measure (a toque de queda in four provinces until March 30), this decree does not restrict circulation — citizens can move freely while security forces conduct targeted operations.
• —The pattern: Ecuador is now operating under a permanent rotation of emergency measures. The March 30 curfew ended; 72 hours later, the April 2 state of exception began. The cumulative effect is a continuous suspension of constitutional rights in the country’s most populated regions. Amnesty International warned of potential human rights abuses ahead of the World Cup. The FBI has agreed to a permanent presence. The US announced joint operations against narco groups designated as terrorist organisations. And the Ecuadorian Army recently destroyed a clandestine airstrip in Puebloviejo, a major cocaine corridor. Despite the security restrictions, Semana Santa tourism proceeded — a sign that Noboa is calibrating the measures to avoid economic damage.

Why It Matters

Ecuador’s security transformation under Noboa is the most aggressive in the hemisphere outside El Salvador. The shift from blanket curfew to targeted raid authority suggests operational maturation — but the indefinite nature of the exceptions raises rule-of-law concerns. The Colombia border remains the flashpoint: Petro installed a radar on his side; Noboa has US-backed operations on his. If the joint US-Ecuador anti-narco operations produce high-profile captures during the exception period, Noboa’s approach gains legitimacy. If they produce civilian casualties or rights violations, the approach is vulnerable to domestic and international challenge. The Corte Constitucional review is pending. As covered in Saturday’s Pulse, this is the most significant sustained security operation in LatAm outside of El Salvador’s gang crackdown.

RISK: CRITICAL

Regional Snapshot

Markets at a Glance — Pre-Easter Closes (Markets Reopen Today)

Pre-Easter closes from TradingView Tier 0 charts (timestamped Apr 3, 08:41–08:42 UTC). Markets reopen Monday April 6. COLCAP notably has NOT priced the Petro-BanRep crisis (erupted Mar 31, markets closed Apr 2). Kast-Milei from La Tercera/CNN en Español/Emol/BioBioChile/Cooperativa/LaPatilla/Pauta/Radio UdeChile. Peru polls from Ipsos/Datum/CPI/Sensor/CNN en Español/Infobae. Colombia from Infobae/Semana/El Cronista/LaPatilla. Ecuador from Primicias/Teleamazonas/Decreto 353. Cuba from Directorio Cubano/CiberCuba/OnCubaNews. Panama from CNN en Español. Previous Pulse editions.

The Week Ahead

Read More from The Rio Times

• Latin America Economy 2026: Growth Tariffs and Opportunities
• Latin American Pulse for Saturday, April 4, 2026
• Latin America Country Risk Q1 2026: Venezuela Halved, Argentina Rose, Region Held Flat