Trump Launches Cartel Coalition at Doral and Offers Missile Strikes as Colombia Votes, Chile’s Broken Transition Enters Its Final Hours, and Cuba Teeters Under Siege
Executive Summary
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: The hemisphere’s new security architecture was signed into existence on Saturday. President Trump hosted twelve right-aligned Latin American leaders at Trump National Doral Miami for the inaugural “Shield of the Americas” summit, formally launching the Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition—a 17-nation military partnership. Trump offered U.S. missile strikes against cartel leaders, mocked Mexico’s President Sheinbaum by name, and declared Cuba was “in its last moments of life.” The region’s three largest left-governed economies—Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia—were excluded by design.
Colombia votes today in the most consequential election of the year so far: legislative elections for the full 103-seat Senate and 183-seat House, plus three coalition presidential primaries that will reshape the May 31 presidential contest. The Historic Pact and Democratic Center lead polls, while the right-wing Gran Consulta Por Colombia primary—with nine candidates—will determine the conservative standard-bearer. This is the first popular test of whether the hemisphere’s new political architecture resonates beyond presidential palaces.
Chile’s broken transition enters its final 72 hours. President-elect Kast flew to Doral before his own March 11 inauguration, completing a symbolic arc: alignment with Washington before assuming the presidency. The China Mobile submarine cable dispute collapsed the first post-Pinochet transition talks, with the U.S. sanctioning three Chilean officials. Kast returns to Santiago for what the Atlantic Council calls an “emergency government.”
Cuba’s Antonio Guiteras plant—the island’s largest—was reportedly repaired Saturday after a boiler failure left millions without power since March 4. But only about 1,000 megawatts are available—less than half of demand. Trump’s Doral declaration that Cuba is “at the end of the line” and his regime-change framing raise the stakes further as the U.S. oil blockade persists.
Brazil’s Ibovespa closed at 179,365 on Friday—its worst weekly decline since November 2022 at nearly 5%—while Petrobras hit a record R$580 billion market capitalisation on strong 4T25 results. The Copom meets March 17–18 with the expected rate cut now complicated by the Strait of Ormuz energy shock.
Mexico’s Sheinbaum said she would respond to Trump’s Doral mockery on Monday, urging a “cool head.” The CJNG succession crisis following El Mencho’s killing on February 22 remains unresolved, with the cartel at risk of atomisation. Trump’s declaration that “the cartels rule Mexico” landed on a country still managing retaliatory violence across 20 states.
Regional Mood
The Doral summit formalises a hemispheric division that has been building since the January intervention in Venezuela. The Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition creates a parallel security architecture to the OAS—one explicitly designed to exclude the left and reward alignment with Washington. Colombia’s election today offers the first democratic signal on whether voters endorse or resist this realignment. Chile’s inauguration on Wednesday completes the Southern Cone’s rightward sweep. The Strait of Ormuz crisis, now over a week old, compresses fiscal space from Brasília to Santiago. Cuba’s humanitarian trajectory continues to deteriorate, with the UN warning of potential collapse. Every story this week points in the same direction: the region’s institutional centre is being pulled apart by converging pressures.
Risk Snapshot
| Country | Key Driver | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Colombia | Legislative elections today; three presidential coalition primaries; security concerns in conflict zones; Petro fraud allegations; polarised Congress expected | ELEVATED |
| Chile | Kast at Doral before inauguration; transition talks collapsed; China cable dispute; U.S. sanctions on 3 officials; Beijing counter-response; Mar 11 inauguration | ELEVATED |
| Cuba | Guiteras plant reportedly repaired; 1,000 MW available vs. 2,000+ MW demand; Trump declares Cuba “at the end of the line”; U.S. oil blockade persists; UN warns of humanitarian collapse | CRITICAL |
| Mexico | Trump mocks Sheinbaum at Doral; CJNG succession crisis post–El Mencho; cartel retaliation across 20 states; sovereignty tensions over missile offer | ELEVATED |
| Brazil | Ibovespa worst week since Nov 2022 (−5%); Petrobras record R$580B market cap; Copom Mar 17–18 rate decision complicated by Ormuz oil shock; Selic at 15% | ELEVATED |
| Ecuador | U.S. Special Forces joint operations launched Mar 3; Noboa at Doral; first U.S. land operation in LatAm cartel war; Colombia trade war ongoing | ELEVATED |
| Argentina | Milei at Doral as Washington’s primary regional anchor; post-labour-reform optimism; MERVAL sole gainer this week (+2.15%); Doral Charter signatory | STABLE |
The Doral Summit: Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition Launched
Trump offers missile strikes, threatens Cuba, mocks Sheinbaum, and formalises a hemispheric security bloc without the Big Three
What Happened
- President Trump hosted leaders from 12 countries at Trump National Doral Miami on Saturday for the inaugural “Shield of the Americas” summit. He signed a “Commitment to Countering Cartel Criminal Activity” proclamation, formally establishing the Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition—a 17-nation military partnership. Attendees included Milei (Argentina), Bukele (El Salvador), Noboa (Ecuador), Kast (Chile, president-elect), Paz (Bolivia), Peña (Paraguay), Abinader (Dominican Republic), Mulino (Panama), Chaves and Fernández (Costa Rica), Persad-Bissessar (Trinidad and Tobago), Asfura (Honduras), and Ali (Guyana).
- Trump offered U.S. missile strikes against cartel leaders: “You want us to use a missile? They’re extremely accurate. ‘Piu,’ right into the living room. That’s the end of that cartel person.” He framed the coalition as requiring “hard power” and military force, explicitly rejecting a law-enforcement-only approach.
- Trump declared Cuba “in its last moments of life” and said the island was “at the end of the line” with “no money, no oil, a bad philosophy, a bad regime.” The regime-change framing was explicit.
- Trump mocked Mexico’s Sheinbaum, imitating her voice and declaring “the cartels rule Mexico.” Sheinbaum said she would respond Monday and urged a “cool head.”
- Kristi Noem, fired as DHS Secretary earlier in the week, was appointed Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas. Rubio, Hegseth, and Lutnick attended; Stephen Miller spoke at the Defence Secretary-level Americas Counter Cartel Conference at SOUTHCOM headquarters on March 4–5.
Why It Matters
The Doral summit replaces the postponed Summit of the Americas and creates a parallel security architecture to the OAS. By design, it excludes the three largest left-governed economies in the region: Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. This is not an oversight—it is the institutional expression of a hemispheric fracture that has solidified since the January intervention in Venezuela.
The missile offer is unprecedented in modern inter-American relations. International law experts have noted that drug trafficking is a criminal offence and does not constitute legal justification for military strikes. The coalition’s “hard power” framing directly contradicts the OAS Charter’s prohibition on intervention. As IISS analyst Irene Mia noted, without Mexico and Brazil, the coalition cannot address the core narcotrafficking corridors it claims to target.
For Latin America’s right-aligned governments, the summit offers military backing and diplomatic cover. For the absent trio, it confirms their exclusion from Washington’s security orbit. The question is whether this architecture produces structural outcomes or remains symbolic. The Doral Charter’s “secure infrastructure” protocols—requiring signatories to block Chinese companies from ports, 5G networks, and submarine cables—are the concrete deliverables to watch.
Key Watch
Implementation of the “secure infrastructure” protocols across signatory nations. Noem’s operational role as Special Envoy. Whether the coalition produces joint military operations beyond the Ecuador precedent. Sheinbaum’s Monday response. Brazil and Mexico’s institutional counter-response through the OAS or bilateral channels.
RISK: ELEVATED
Colombia
Legislative elections and presidential coalition primaries reshape the political landscape
What Happened
- Colombia votes today in legislative elections for all 103 Senate seats and 183 House seats, plus three simultaneous coalition presidential primaries. Polls opened at 8:00 and close at 16:00; initial results are expected before sundown. Land and fluvial borders are closed for Colombian nationals, and ley seca is in effect since Saturday afternoon.
- The Gran Consulta Por Colombia (right-wing) primary features nine candidates; polls consistently identify Senator Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático) as the favourite. The centre-right Coalición de la Esperanza primary and the leftist Frente por la Vida primary also take place today. Under Colombian law, losing primary candidates must drop out by March 9.
- Neither of the top two presidential polling leaders—Iván Cepeda (Historic Pact, left) and Abelardo de la Espriella (Defensor de la Patria, right)—is competing in today’s primaries. Both will proceed directly to the May 31 first round.
- Polls project the ruling Historic Pact to win the largest share of legislative seats, with the Democratic Center second. Small parties face an existential threshold: 3% nationally for the Senate, 50% of the departmental quotient for the House. Several parties risk losing representation entirely.
- President Petro has issued repeated claims of potential electoral fraud, a tactic analysts describe as designed to rally base turnout and provide an excuse if results are unfavourable. Colombia was not invited to the Doral summit.
Why It Matters
Today’s vote is the first of three electoral events in 2026 that will determine Colombia’s post-Petro trajectory. The congressional composition will shape whether the next president governs with a legislative majority or faces the same gridlock that stalled Petro’s labour and healthcare reforms. The primaries will thin the presidential field from a crowded cluster to a clearer three-way contest between left, right, and centre.
The election takes place under heightened security concerns. Humanitarian organisations have warned that in conflict-affected regions, armed groups threaten the integrity of the democratic process. Vote-counting in the proportional representation system is rapid in urban areas but can take days in isolated zones, meaning the full picture may not emerge until mid-week.
Colombia’s absence from Doral adds geopolitical weight to the results. If the right consolidates in Congress and the primaries, it signals that the hemispheric realignment is being ratified domestically. If Petro’s coalition holds or expands, it suggests the leftist project retains resilience despite Washington’s exclusion.
Key Watch
Initial legislative results by tonight. Gran Consulta Por Colombia primary outcome—Valencia vs. Peñalosa vs. Dávila. Whether Historic Pact retains Senate plurality. Congressional composition for the 2026–2030 term. Primary losers must exit by March 9, clarifying the May 31 presidential field.
RISK: ELEVATED
Chile
Kast at Doral before inauguration; broken transition; U.S.–China cable dispute defines Day One
What Happened
- President-elect José Antonio Kast attended the Doral summit on Saturday—four days before his own inauguration on March 11. The sequence sends a direct signal: alignment with Washington before assuming office. Secretary of State Rubio is confirmed to attend the Santiago ceremony.
- The transition process collapsed on March 4 when Kast pulled out of talks with outgoing President Boric over the China Mobile submarine cable dispute. The 19,873-kilometre Chile China Express cable, approved by Boric’s transport secretary in January, drew U.S. visa sanctions on three Chilean officials. Kast denied receiving advance notice; Boric said he was informed weeks prior. The breakdown is the first failure of the post-Pinochet transition process.
- Kast enters without an absolute congressional majority. The Senate is evenly divided; the balance in the lower house rests with the populist People’s Party. His cabinet draws primarily from the private sector and think tanks, not the political class.
- Kast’s “Border Shield” immigration crackdown begins on inauguration day, with a 3,000-strong border force pledged for Chile’s northern frontier.
Why It Matters
Chile’s broken transition marks a rupture in one of Latin America’s most cherished democratic norms. As Carnegie Mellon’s Ignacio Arana Araya noted, Chile is “losing the mature, collaborative and efficient transfer of power that has characterised post-Pinochet politics.” The cable dispute is the proximate trigger, but the deeper driver is an ideological gulf between the continent’s youngest progressive ex-president and its most right-aligned incoming one.
Kast’s appearance at Doral completes the Southern Cone’s rightward sweep: every major government in the subregion except Brazil is now aligned with Washington. The “secure infrastructure” protocols signed at Doral will immediately apply to the cable question, creating a test case for the coalition’s ability to translate declarations into concrete policy. GlobalSource Partners analyst Robert Funk frames the real challenge ahead: “the bigger story is how Kast moves forward managing the relationship with China and the U.S.—that is the headache Kast is going to have going forward.”
Key Watch
March 11 inauguration ceremony and international attendance. Border Shield activation. Cable project decision—cancellation, rerouting, or renegotiation. Congressional coalition-building with the People’s Party. First 100-day economic reform agenda: Codelco audit, fuel subsidy restructuring, copper-sector regulatory changes.
RISK: ELEVATED
Regional Snapshot
Cuba
Cuban authorities announced Saturday that the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant has been repaired after a boiler failure on March 4 left millions without power. However, only about 1,000 megawatts of capacity are available—less than half of current demand. Trump’s Doral declaration that Cuba is “in its last moments of life” raises the regime-change pressure. The U.S. oil blockade continues; blackouts exceed 20 hours daily in some provinces. The UN has warned of humanitarian “collapse.” Mexico sent two ships of humanitarian aid in February. Cuba’s GDP fell 4% in the first nine months of 2025.
Mexico
Sheinbaum said she would address Trump’s Doral mockery on Monday, calling for a “cool head.” The CJNG succession crisis following the February 22 killing of El Mencho remains the country’s dominant security challenge, with retaliatory violence having erupted across 20 states. Trump’s offer of missile strikes against cartel leaders and his declaration that “the cartels govern Mexico” land amid the most complex period in U.S.–Mexico security relations since the FTO designations. The IPC fell 1.56% on Friday to 67,313—the steepest single-session decline among tracked indices this week.
Ecuador
Noboa attended the Doral summit after hosting SOUTHCOM commander Gen. Francis Donovan in Quito on March 2. U.S. Special Forces launched joint operations with Ecuadorian commandos on March 3—the first U.S. land operation in the administration’s cartel war. The operations target designated terrorist organisations Los Choneros and Los Lobos. Noboa posted photos with Trump and wrote that “the time is over” for cartels crossing borders with impunity. Ecuador expelled Cuba’s ambassador on March 4. The Colombia trade war enters a new phase as the 50% reciprocal tariff public comment period has closed.
Bolivia
President Rodrigo Paz attended the Doral summit—a significant marker of Bolivia’s post-MAS realignment with Washington. Paz, inaugurated in November after ending 20 years of MAS rule, faces a critical domestic test: subnational elections on March 22 for governors, mayors, and local authorities. His coalition partner Doria Medina and VP-turned-opponent Lara are backing competing slates. Inflation remains around 23%, and the economy faces dollar shortages. The March 22 vote is the first real measure of Paz’s political capital.
Peru
With 35 days until the April 12 presidential and legislative elections, the field remains fragmented among 36 registered candidates. Rafael López Aliaga leads at 12–15%, Keiko Fujimori at 8–10%, and comedian Carlos Álvarez at approximately 5%. Undecided voters still constitute over 40% of the electorate. Interim President José María Balcázar, the country’s fourth president in a single five-year term, entered office on February 18 with 63% disapproval. The ballot will also reinstate the Senate for the first time since 1992—60 seats to be filled alongside the presidential race.
Brazil
The Ibovespa closed Friday at 179,365, down 0.61% on the session and nearly 5% on the week—its worst five-day stretch since November 2022. Petrobras surged approximately 5% on Friday to a record R$580 billion market capitalisation after reporting R$15.6 billion in 4T25 net profit and R$8.1 billion in dividends above consensus. The Strait of Ormuz crisis bifurcates Brazil’s market story: what damages the index strengthens the national oil producer. The Copom meets March 17–18 with the expected 50bp cut to 14.50% now complicated by energy-driven inflation and DI futures repricing. Brent crude surged past US$93.
Markets at a Glance
| Index | Close | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 179,365 | −0.61% | Worst week since Nov 2022; Petrobras record cap offset by Ormuz selloff |
| MERVAL | 2,626,115 | +2.15% | Sole gainer; Milei Doral positioning and post-labour-reform rally |
| IPC (Mexico) | 67,313 | −1.56% | Steepest Friday decline; cartel tensions and Ormuz risk-off |
| COLCAP | 2,175 | −0.32% | Pre-election caution; election-day trading tomorrow |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,314 | +0.16% | Holding above 10,000 support; Kast inauguration 3 days away |
| USD/BRL | 5.2438 | −0.82% | Petrobras inflows helped real; weekly dollar +2.14% vs BRL |
| Selic | 15.00% | — | Copom Mar 17–18; 50bp cut expected but Ormuz may alter guidance |
| Brent Crude | US$93+ | Surging | Strait of Ormuz closed 8+ days; tanker traffic down ~90% |
| Petrobras (PETR4) | R$43.12 | +~5% | Record R$580B market cap; 4T25 net profit R$15.6B; dividends above consensus |
Market data reflects Friday, March 6, 2026 closing prices sourced from Trading Economics, Rio Times daily briefs, and B3. Awaiting TradingView Tier 0 charts from editor for final verification.
The Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Legislative elections & presidential coalition primaries | Colombia |
| Mar 9 | Primary losers must exit presidential race (Colombian law deadline) | Colombia |
| Mar 10 | Sheinbaum responds to Trump’s Doral remarks; Monday press conference | Mexico |
| Mar 11 | José Antonio Kast inaugurated as president; “Border Shield” activates | Chile |
| Mar 14 | Peru candidate registration deadline for April 12 general election | Peru |
| Mar 17–18 | Copom meeting — first potential rate cut of 2026; Selic at 15.00% | Brazil |
| Mar 22 | Subnational elections — governors, mayors, local authorities | Bolivia |
| Apr 12 | General election — president, Senate (first since 1992), & Chamber of Deputies | Peru |
| May 31 | Presidential election first round | Colombia |
| Ongoing | Strait of Ormuz blockade — oil prices, shipping disruption, EM risk repricing | Global |
| Ongoing | U.S.–Ecuador joint military operations; “Shield of the Americas” implementation | Regional |