Colombia’s Election Splits Congress Down the Middle as Valencia, López and Barreras Win Primaries; Doral Coalition Takes Shape Without the Big Three; Chile’s Kast Returns to Santiago for Wednesday Inauguration; Cuba’s Guiteras Plant Back Online but Grid Remains Fragile
Executive Summary
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: Colombia delivered the hemisphere’s first democratic verdict on the new political order yesterday. The ruling left-wing Historic Pact—President Petro’s coalition—emerged as the largest force in the Senate, with the right-wing opposition Democratic Center close behind, producing a fragmented Congress that guarantees no president will govern with a legislative majority in the 2026–2030 term. Three simultaneous presidential primaries crystallised the May 31 field: Paloma Valencia won the right, centre-left Claudia López the centrist consultation, and Roy Barreras the left. Neither of the two overall polling leaders—left-wing senator Iván Cepeda (Historic Pact, barred from the leftist primary by the electoral authority) and right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (Defender of the Homeland)—competed yesterday and proceed directly to the first round.
Brazil’s Ibovespa closed at 179,365 on Friday—its worst weekly decline since November 2022, falling nearly 5%—while Petrobras hit a record R$580 billion market capitalisation on strong fourth-quarter results. The Copom meets March 17–18 with the expected rate cut now complicated by the Strait of Ormuz energy shock. Brent crude remained above US$93.
Chile’s president-elect José Antonio Kast returns to Santiago today after attending Saturday’s Doral summit. His March 11 inauguration is now 48 hours away. The broken transition with outgoing President Boric has not been restored, and the “Border Shield” immigration crackdown activates on inauguration day. Secretary of State Rubio is confirmed to attend the ceremony.
Mexico’s President Sheinbaum responds today to Trump’s Doral mockery, in which he imitated her voice and declared “the cartels rule Mexico.” The CJNG succession crisis following El Mencho’s February 22 killing remains unresolved, with retaliatory violence still active across multiple states. The IPC fell 1.56% on Friday—the steepest single-session decline among tracked indices.
Cuba’s Antonio Guiteras plant—the island’s largest—reconnected to the national grid at 6:03 a.m. Sunday, recovering approximately 200 megawatts after four days offline. But the grid operates far below demand: only about 1,000 MW available versus 2,000+ MW needed. Trump’s Doral declaration that Cuba is “at the end of the line” and the continuing U.S. oil blockade leave the island’s energy crisis unresolved.
Argentina’s MERVAL was the sole gainer among tracked indices this week, rising 2.15% to 2,626,115 as Milei’s Doral positioning and post-labour-reform optimism sustained the rally. Milei served as Washington’s primary regional anchor at the summit, signing the counter-cartel coalition proclamation alongside eleven other leaders.
Regional Mood
Colombia’s election confirms what the Doral summit declared from the top down: the hemisphere is divided, and neither side commands a decisive majority. The fragmented Colombian Congress mirrors the fragmented continent—left and right locked in competitive equilibrium, with centrist forces holding the balance. Sheinbaum’s Monday response to Trump’s mockery will set the tone for U.S.–Mexico relations through the CJNG crisis. Kast’s Wednesday inauguration completes the Southern Cone’s rightward sweep. The Strait of Ormuz crisis, now entering its second week, continues to compress fiscal space across the region. Cuba’s grid repair buys days, not stability. Every indicator this week points to a hemisphere managing multiple concurrent crises without institutional consensus on how to resolve any of them.
Risk Snapshot
| Country | Key Driver | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Colombia | Left-wing Historic Pact leads fragmented Senate; right-wing Valencia wins primary; May 31 presidential field now set; no majority for any bloc; final count due mid-week | ELEVATED |
| Chile | Kast returns from Doral; Mar 11 inauguration in 48 hours; transition not restored; Border Shield activates on Day One; Rubio attending ceremony | ELEVATED |
| Cuba | Guiteras reconnected Sunday morning; ~1,000 MW available vs 2,000+ MW demand; Trump declares Cuba “at the end of the line”; U.S. oil blockade persists | CRITICAL |
| Mexico | Sheinbaum responds today to Trump’s Doral mockery; CJNG succession crisis post–El Mencho; cartel retaliation across 20 states; sovereignty tensions | ELEVATED |
| Brazil | Ibovespa worst week since Nov 2022 (−5%); Petrobras record R$580B market cap; Copom Mar 17–18 rate decision complicated by Ormuz oil shock | ELEVATED |
| Ecuador | U.S. Special Forces joint operations since Mar 3; Noboa at Doral; first U.S. land operation in LatAm cartel war; Colombia trade war ongoing | ELEVATED |
| Argentina | Milei as Washington’s primary regional anchor at Doral; MERVAL sole gainer (+2.15%); post-labour-reform optimism; coalition signatory | STABLE |
Colombia
Historic Pact leads fragmented Congress; Valencia, López and Barreras win presidential primaries; May 31 field takes shape
What Happened
- —Congressional vote: Colombia elected all 103 Senate and 183 House seats on Sunday. Preliminary results show the ruling left-wing Historic Pact—President Petro’s coalition—emerging as the largest force in the Senate, consolidating an expansion of its parliamentary presence. The right-wing Democratic Center, founded by former president Álvaro Uribe, placed second, growing from its current 13 seats to an estimated 16–17. The centrist Liberal Party holds third with approximately 13 seats, followed by centre-left Green Alliance (~11), the centre-right Conservative Party (~10), centrist Party of the U (~8), centre-right Radical Change/Alma (~7), Mira/New Liberalism (~5), and National Salvation (~4). Final results require a vote-by-vote tally expected by mid-week.
- —Presidential primaries: Senator Paloma Valencia (Democratic Center) won the nine-candidate Gran Consulta Por Colombia right-wing primary decisively—the largest vote total of any primary. Former Bogotá mayor Claudia López won the centrist Consultation for Solutions primary. Roy Barreras defeated Daniel Quintero in the leftist Front for Life primary. Under Colombian law, all losing primary candidates must drop out by today, March 9.
- —Invalid votes: Blank and invalid ballots were more than double their 2022 levels—a notable signal, as both leading presidential candidates who did not participate in the primaries—left-wing senator Iván Cepeda (Historic Pact), who was barred by the electoral authority from the leftist consultation after competing in his party’s own October primary, and right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (Defender of the Homeland), who chose to bypass the right-wing consultation—had urged supporters to cast null votes rather than participate in the consultations.
- —Security and fraud claims: Defence Minister Pedro Sánchez reported a group of approximately 2,400 people attempting to enter Colombia via an illegal border crossing with Venezuela despite border closures. President Petro described the incident as evidence of large-scale fraud. Over 126,000 law enforcement officers were deployed nationwide. The ELN declared a unilateral ceasefire to allow the election to proceed. The EU deployed 40 observers.
Why It Matters
The fragmented Congress guarantees that Colombia‘s next president—whoever wins on May 31—will face the same legislative gridlock that stalled Petro’s reform agenda. No party or coalition commands an outright majority. The Historic Pact’s expansion proves the left retains resilience despite Washington’s exclusion of Colombia from the Doral summit, while the Democratic Center’s growth signals the traditional right’s recovery under the Uribe brand.
Valencia’s right-wing primary victory is the headline for the presidential race. Her margin positions her as the conservative standard-bearer, but the real contest lies between the candidates who did not compete yesterday: Cepeda on the far left and de la Espriella on the populist right. Valencia (right), López (centre-left) and Barreras (left) now join a crowded May 31 field that could produce a six- or seven-way first round with no candidate above 20%.
Several parties failed to cross the 3% Senate threshold and lose representation entirely—among them Roy Barreras’s Broad Unitary Front, Federico Gutiérrez’s Creemos party, and Juan Daniel Oviedo’s All for Colombia movement. The consolidation benefits the established parties and narrows the number of viable presidential vehicles heading into May.
Key Watch
Final vote-by-vote tally due mid-week for definitive seat allocations. Primary losers must formally exit by today. Whether the null-vote signal translates into presidential polling movement for Cepeda and de la Espriella. COLCAP reaction when markets open today—pre-election caution should give way to clarity pricing. Petro’s fraud allegations and whether they gain institutional traction or remain rhetorical.
RISK: ELEVATED
Doral Summit Aftermath: The Coalition Takes Shape
Seventeen-nation military pact signed; Noem named envoy; Sheinbaum responds today; excluded trio weighs counter-response
What Happened
- —Coalition launched: President Trump hosted twelve leaders at Trump National Doral Miami on Saturday for the “Shield of the Americas” summit, signing a proclamation establishing the Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition. Attendees included Milei (Argentina), Bukele (El Salvador), Noboa (Ecuador), Kast (Chile, president-elect), Paz (Bolivia), Peña (Paraguay), Abinader (Dominican Republic), Mulino (Panama), Chaves (Costa Rica), Persad-Bissessar (Trinidad and Tobago), Asfura (Honduras), and Ali (Guyana).
- —Military doctrine: Trump told assembled leaders that military force is the only path to defeating cartels and offered U.S. missile strikes against cartel leaders. He declared Cuba “at the end of the line” with explicit regime-change framing. He mocked Mexico’s Sheinbaum by imitating her voice and stated that “the cartels rule Mexico.”
- —Noem appointment: Kristi Noem, removed as DHS Secretary earlier in the week, was named Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas. She pledged personal access to all summit leaders and vowed to “destroy the cartels.” Rubio, Hegseth, Lutnick, and Bessent attended.
- —Excluded trio: Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia—the three largest left-governed economies in the hemisphere—were absent by design. The summit replaced the postponed Summit of the Americas, which the Dominican Republic had scrapped in late 2025 after Mexico and Colombia threatened to withdraw.
Why It Matters
The Doral summit creates a parallel security architecture to the OAS—one explicitly built around Washington and designed to reward ideological alignment. The “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, codified in the 2025 National Security Strategy, now has an operational vehicle. CSIS analysis notes the summit amplifies the administration’s counter-China strategy, with “secure infrastructure” protocols requiring signatories to block Chinese companies from ports, 5G networks, and submarine cables.
The practical question is implementation. Without Mexico—the epicentre of cartel violence—and without Colombia—the top cocaine producer—the coalition cannot address the core narcotrafficking corridors it claims to target. Ecuador’s joint operations with U.S. Special Forces, launched March 3, serve as the operational prototype, but scaling beyond a willing partner to the broader hemisphere requires cooperation that the excluded trio will not provide.
Sheinbaum’s Monday response is today’s key political event. Her stated approach—”cool head”—suggests measured pushback rather than escalation, but the sovereignty implications of Trump’s missile offer and his declaration that cartels govern her country leave little room for conciliation. Mexico’s cooperation on the El Mencho operation two weeks ago demonstrates willingness to act, but on its own terms rather than under a U.S.-led military framework.
Key Watch
Sheinbaum’s Monday press conference—tone and substance on sovereignty, cartel cooperation, and U.S. military offers. Noem’s operational agenda as Special Envoy. Whether the “secure infrastructure” protocols produce concrete Chinese company exclusions. Brazil and Mexico’s counter-response through the OAS or bilateral channels. Trump–Xi summit timing and whether the Doral Charter’s anti-China provisions complicate preparations.
RISK: ELEVATED
Chile
Kast returns from Doral with 48 hours to inauguration; broken transition; Border Shield activates Wednesday
What Happened
- —Doral before Santiago: President-elect Kast attended the Shield of the Americas summit on Saturday—three days before his own inauguration. The sequence sends an unambiguous signal: alignment with Washington before assuming the presidency. Secretary of State Rubio is confirmed to attend the March 11 ceremony in Santiago.
- —Broken transition: The transition with outgoing President Boric collapsed on March 4 over the China Mobile submarine cable dispute. The 19,873-kilometre Chile China Express cable, approved by Boric’s transport secretary in January, drew U.S. visa sanctions on three Chilean officials. Kast declared the transition over after a 22-minute meeting ended in mutual accusations. This is the first failure of Chile’s post-Pinochet transition process.
- —Governance challenge: Kast enters office without an absolute congressional majority. The Senate is evenly divided; the balance in the lower house rests with the populist People’s Party. His cabinet draws primarily from the private sector and think tanks. His “Border Shield” immigration crackdown, pledging a 3,000-strong force for the northern frontier, activates on inauguration day.
Why It Matters
Chile’s broken transition ruptures one of Latin America‘s most cherished democratic norms. The cable dispute is the proximate trigger, but the deeper driver is the ideological gulf between the continent’s youngest progressive ex-president and its most right-aligned incoming one. The “secure infrastructure” protocols signed at Doral create an immediate test case: Kast must decide whether to cancel, reroute, or renegotiate the China cable project within his first days in office.
Kast’s appearance at Doral completes the Southern Cone’s rightward sweep: every major government in the subregion except Brazil is now aligned with Washington. The IPSA edged up 0.16% on Friday to 10,314, holding above the 10,000 support level as markets price in Kast’s pro-business, pro-Washington orientation. The real governance test begins Wednesday when legislative coalition-building with the People’s Party determines whether Kast can deliver on his economic reform agenda—Codelco audit, fuel subsidy restructuring, and copper-sector regulatory changes.
Key Watch
March 11 inauguration ceremony and international attendance. Border Shield activation and northern frontier deployment. Cable project decision—cancellation, rerouting, or renegotiation. Congressional coalition-building with the People’s Party. Beijing’s counter-response to the Doral secure-infrastructure protocols.
RISK: ELEVATED
Regional Snapshot
Cuba
The Antonio Guiteras plant reconnected to the national grid at 6:03 a.m. Sunday, recovering approximately 200 megawatts after four days offline. However, only about 1,000 MW of total capacity are available—less than half of the island’s demand. Daily blackouts of 12–20 hours remain the norm in most provinces. Trump’s Doral declaration that Cuba is “in its last moments of life” intensifies regime-change pressure. The U.S. oil blockade, imposed after Venezuela’s oil shipments were cut following the January Maduro capture, continues to strangle fuel supply. Cuba’s GDP fell 4% in the first nine months of 2025.
Mexico
Sheinbaum responds today at her Monday press conference to Trump’s Doral remarks, in which he imitated her voice and declared “the cartels govern Mexico.” She has urged a “cool head” while affirming that cooperation with the U.S. must respect Mexican sovereignty. The CJNG succession crisis following the February 22 killing of El Mencho remains the country’s dominant security challenge, with retaliatory violence active across 20 states. The IPC fell 1.56% on Friday to 67,313—the steepest single-session decline among tracked indices. Trump also warned he is prepared to do “whatever is necessary” if cartel chaos continues spilling across the border.
Ecuador
Noboa attended the Doral summit after hosting SOUTHCOM commander Gen. Francis Donovan in Quito on March 2. U.S. Special Forces launched joint operations with Ecuadorian commandos on March 3—the first U.S. land operation in the administration’s cartel war, falling under the Operation Southern Spear umbrella. Operations target FTO-designated groups Los Choneros and Los Lobos. The DEA announced 16 arrests and 6 tonnes of cocaine seized in Europe linked to the Ecuadorian Los Lobos cartel. Ecuador’s role as the operational prototype for the Doral coalition is now established.
Bolivia
President Rodrigo Paz attended the Doral summit, marking Bolivia’s post-MAS realignment with Washington. Subnational elections on March 22—for governors, mayors, and local authorities—are the next critical test of Paz’s political capital. The MAS party has effectively disappeared from the electoral contest, fielding no candidates in any departmental capital. Paz’s coalition partner Doria Medina and VP-turned-opponent Lara are backing competing slates. Inflation remains around 23%, dollar shortages persist, and the political landscape is deeply fragmented across more than fifteen parties per municipality.
Peru
With 34 days until the April 12 presidential and legislative elections, the field remains fragmented among a record 36 registered candidates. Rafael López Aliaga leads polls at 12–15%, Keiko Fujimori at 8–10%, and comedian Carlos Álvarez at approximately 5%. Undecided voters still constitute over 40% of the electorate. Interim President José María Balcázar, the country’s ninth president in a decade, entered office on February 18 with deep disapproval. The ballot will also reinstate the Senate for the first time since 1992—60 seats to be filled alongside the presidential race.
Brazil
The Ibovespa closed Friday at 179,365, down 0.61% on the session and nearly 5% on the week—its worst five-day stretch since November 2022. Petrobras surged approximately 5% to a record R$580 billion market capitalisation after reporting R$15.6 billion in fourth-quarter net profit and R$8.1 billion in dividends above consensus. The Strait of Ormuz crisis bifurcates Brazil’s market story: what damages the index strengthens the national oil producer. The Copom meets March 17–18 with the expected 50bp cut to 14.50% now complicated by energy-driven inflation. Brent crude surged past US$93. The dollar closed at R$5.2438, down 0.82% on Friday but up 2.14% on the week.
Markets at a Glance
| Index | Close | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 179,364.82 | −0.61% | Worst week since Nov 2022 (−4.99%); Petrobras record cap offset by Ormuz selloff |
| MERVAL | 2,626,114.83 | +2.15% | Sole gainer; Milei Doral positioning and post-labour-reform rally |
| IPC (Mexico) | 67,313.50 | −1.56% | Steepest Friday decline; cartel tensions and Ormuz risk-off |
| COLCAP | 2,175.41 | −0.32% | Pre-election caution; post-election repricing expected today |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,314.03 | +0.16% | Holding above 10,000 support; Kast inauguration 2 days away |
| USD/BRL | 5.2438 | −0.82% | Petrobras inflows helped real on Friday; weekly dollar +2.14% vs BRL |
| Selic | 15.00% | — | Copom Mar 17–18; 50bp cut expected but Ormuz may alter guidance |
| Brent Crude | US$93+ | Surging | Strait of Ormuz entering second week; tanker traffic down ~90% |
| Petrobras (PETR4) | R$43.12 | +~5% | Record R$580B market cap; 4T25 net profit R$15.6B; dividends above consensus |
Market data reflects Friday, March 6, 2026 closing prices. Equity index figures sourced from TradingView Tier 0 charts provided by editor. Supplementary data from Trading Economics and Rio Times daily briefs.
The Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | Primary losers must exit presidential race (Colombian law deadline); final count begins | Colombia |
| Mar 10 | Sheinbaum responds to Trump’s Doral remarks; Monday press conference | Mexico |
| Mar 11 | José Antonio Kast inaugurated as president; “Border Shield” activates; Rubio attends | Chile |
| Mar ~12 | Final vote-by-vote tally for definitive congressional seat allocation | Colombia |
| Mar 14 | Peru candidate registration deadline for April 12 general election | Peru |
| Mar 17–18 | Copom meeting — first potential rate cut of 2026; Selic at 15.00% | Brazil |
| Mar 22 | Subnational elections — governors, mayors, local authorities | Bolivia |
| Apr 12 | General election — president, Senate (first since 1992), & Chamber of Deputies | Peru |
| May 31 | Presidential election first round | Colombia |
| Ongoing | Strait of Ormuz blockade — oil prices, shipping disruption, EM risk repricing | Global |
| Ongoing | U.S.–Ecuador joint military operations; Shield of the Americas implementation | Regional |