Latin American Pulse for Friday, February 13, 2026

Risk Snapshot

Venezuela — Amnesty Bill Postponed to Feb 19; Prisoner Deadline Missed; Thousands March in Caracas; Wright Tours Oil Fields

What Happened

• —Amnesty Bill Postponed: The National Assembly debated the Amnesty Law for Democratic Coexistence on Thursday but suspended the session after pro-government and opposition lawmakers clashed over Article 5, which requires beneficiaries to appear in court to request amnesty. Opposition lawmaker Nora Bracho called the requirement “completely unnecessary,” while ruling-party member Iris Varela argued beneficiaries must “acknowledge crimes they have committed.” The debate will resume February 19. The prisoner release deadline of February 13—set by Jorge Rodríguez himself—has effectively been missed.
• —Largest Post-Maduro Protest: Thousands of opposition demonstrators marched in Caracas on Thursday—National Youth Day—in the first major opposition rally since Maduro’s January 3 capture. Protesters chanted “We are not afraid” and demanded the release of all remaining political prisoners. Exiled leader María Corina Machado wrote on X: “VENEZUELA WILL BE FREE! Long live our students!” The Rodríguez government organized a counter-demonstration that also attracted thousands. Relatives of inmates chained themselves to the Zona 7 detention center.
• —Wright Oil Tour: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright—the highest-ranking American official to visit Venezuela in nearly 30 years—toured Chevron-PDVSA joint venture facilities in the Orinoco Belt with Acting President Delcy Rodríguez on Thursday. Wright said the U.S. could drive “a dramatic increase” in Venezuelan oil, gas, and electricity production by year-end. Bloomberg reported ConocoPhillips and other companies that lost assets under nationalization are in “active discussions” with the Rodríguez government over compensation. Wright stated bluntly: “We control the flow of the dominant industry of Venezuela.”
• —Prisoner Count: Foro Penal now counts 431 political prisoners confirmed released since January 8, with over 600 remaining in detention. The government claims higher figures but has not provided dates or names that can be independently verified.
• —Guanipa Status: Juan Pablo Guanipa remains under house arrest in Maracaibo with an ankle monitor. The Attorney General’s Office told CNN it would provide no further information on the case.

Why It Matters

The amnesty bill’s postponement on the very day Rodríguez had promised all prisoners would be free exposes the fault line at the center of Venezuela’s transition: the ruling party wants reconciliation on its terms, with each released prisoner formally acknowledging guilt, while the opposition demands automatic, unconditional amnesty. This is not a procedural disagreement—it defines whether the transition is genuine or a managed rebranding of Chavismo.

The dueling protests reveal a Venezuela where the fear barrier has broken. Students marching openly against the government on Youth Day—the same date that in 2014 saw three protesters shot dead under Maduro—is a barometer of how fundamentally the political space has shifted. Whether that space remains open depends entirely on the security apparatus’s response in the coming weeks.

Wright’s visit crystallizes the transactional nature of the U.S.-Venezuela relationship: oil access in exchange for political reform, with Washington openly acknowledging it holds the economic leverage. The Democrats’ introduction of the Venezuela Oil Proceeds Transparency Act signals this arrangement faces domestic political scrutiny.

Risk Level: Elevated

Cuba — Day 4: Hotels Closing Across Resort Areas; Air Canada Suspends Through May; Crisis Turns Structural

What Happened

• —Hotel Closures: The government is now shutting hotels across Varadero, Cayo Santa María, Cayo Coco, and Holguín as part of what Vice Prime Minister Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga called a “consolidation” of tourism to reduce energy consumption. At least eight hotels have been confirmed closed, with guests relocated to higher-standard properties with better generator capacity. Meliá reduced its hotel availability on the island. Tourism workers are on seven-days-on, seven-days-off rotations, staying in nearby hotels because there is no fuel for commuting.
• —Airline Suspensions Deepen: Air Canada extended its Cuba suspension through at least May 2026. Air Transat suspended through April 30. WestJet, Sunwing, and WestJet Vacations cancelled all Cuba operations. Russia completed its final evacuation flights this week; all subsequent Aeroflot service to Cuba has been cancelled starting February 24. Iberia is maintaining its Madrid-Havana route with flexible fare policies but no cancellations so far. Air Europa added technical refueling stops in Santo Domingo.
• —Mexico Aid Delivered: The two Mexican Navy vessels carrying 814 tons of humanitarian aid arrived in Cuba on Thursday. An additional 1,500 tons of powdered milk and beans remain planned for future shipments.
• —Tourism Collapse Deepens: Cuba closed 2025 with only 1.8 million international visitors and a 21.5% hotel occupancy rate in the first half. Canada (754,010 visitors) and Russia (131,882) were the leading source markets, both declining year-on-year. The UK, Australia, and Canada have all issued travel advisories urging citizens to avoid non-essential travel.

Why It Matters

The hotel closures mark a qualitative shift: Cuba’s fuel crisis has moved from an aviation problem to a structural economic crisis. Tourism was the last major source of hard currency; closing hotels during peak season is an admission that the energy deficit cannot be managed through rationing alone. Workers sleeping in hotels because there is no fuel for transport is a portrait of an economy operating at subsistence level.

Air Canada’s extension through May signals the airline industry does not expect a resolution for at least three months. With Canadian tourists accounting for the vast majority of arrivals, this effectively eliminates Cuba’s primary revenue stream during its most important season.

Risk Level: Critical

Argentina — Senate Passes Labor Reform 42–30 After 13-Hour Session; Clashes Outside Congress

What Happened

• —Labor Reform Passes: The Senate approved Milei’s flagship Labor Modernization Bill 42–30 in the early hours of Thursday after more than 13 hours of debate. The bill received support from La Libertad Avanza (20), UCR (10), PRO (3), and several provincial caucuses. Milei hailed it as “a turning point in Argentine labor history.” The bill now moves to the Chamber of Deputies, with the ruling coalition targeting a vote before February 27.
• —Street Clashes: Trade union-mobilized protesters converged on the Congress building, blocking traffic and clashing with police as the session unfolded. Demonstrators hurled Molotov cocktails at security forces. Opponents argue the reform strips protections against unjust dismissal, extends the workday to up to 12 hours, and limits the right to strike in essential services.
• —Key Provisions: The reform caps redundancy payments, introduces company-level collective bargaining over sector-wide agreements, creates new hiring categories for digital platforms and part-time work, limits strikes in essential services, and offers tax incentives for employment formalization. Opposition Peronist Senator José Mayans objected that the bill amended 41 existing laws and should not have been debated in a single session.
• —CPI Confirmed: INDEC’s January CPI of 2.9% month-on-month (32.4% YoY) was the fifth consecutive month of acceleration, driven by food (+4.7%), restaurants and hotels (+4.1%), and communication (+3.6%). Economists say the methodology still underestimates real price rises. The INDEC credibility crisis continues under new head Pedro Lines.
• —Market Reaction Negative: Despite the labor reform passage, the MERVAL fell 5.50% on Thursday to 2,851,780—extending its decline to over 13% from the January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502. The selloff suggests investors remain more concerned about the CPI acceleration, INDEC credibility crisis, and street violence than encouraged by legislative progress. Argentine peso and bonds also came under pressure.

Why It Matters

The 42–30 vote margin represents a broader coalition than Milei has assembled for any previous legislation, drawing support well beyond his core La Libertad Avanza bloc. This is the legislative test many investors were waiting for: proof that his strengthened congressional position after the midterms can translate into structural reform. The bill now faces the lower house, where timing before February 27 is ambitious but achievable.

The street violence, however, foreshadows a potentially difficult implementation. Labor unions have not yet announced their response but a general strike is widely expected. The political question is whether Molotov cocktails at Congress help or hurt Milei’s narrative of a country in need of modernization.

Risk Level: Elevated

Colombia — Emergency Declared; COP$8 Trillion Emergency Tax Plan; 870 km² Submerged

What Happened

• —Emergency Declared: President Petro declared a state of emergency across all Caribbean coast provinces and Chocó on Wednesday. The 30-day decree covers regions where more than 130 emergencies struck 181 municipalities. UNGRD reports over 69,000 families affected in half of Colombia’s 32 provinces, with more than 870 square kilometers submerged.
• —Emergency Tax: Finance Minister Germán Avila announced plans to issue emergency tax decrees to raise COP$8 trillion (~$2.2 billion) for relief and infrastructure repair. The proposed levy would apply to companies with net assets exceeding COP$10 billion (~$2.7 million), with progressive rates up to 1.2%. Approximately 15,000 companies would be affected.
• —Córdoba Devastation: The department of Córdoba remains the worst hit, with 156,000 people affected and 80% of territory underwater. More than 4,300 homes destroyed. At least 1,200 cattle dead according to the ranchers’ association. IDEAM director Ghisliane Echeverry told ministers: “In one day we received the amount of rain expected for an entire month.”
• —Death Toll Rising: The confirmed death toll stands at 44 across 16 departments as of February 11, up from 22 on February 9. Multiple additional fatalities from landslides in Nariño, Antioquia, and Cauca continue to be reported.
• —Agricultural Impact: In Córdoba alone, 157,000 hectares of farmland remain submerged. In Urabá, over 1,200 hectares of banana crops flooded for prolonged periods—likely total losses. Coffee-growing regions are seeing soil saturation delaying flowering and increasing fungal disease.

Why It Matters

The emergency declaration unlocks the fiscal tools Petro’s government had hesitated to deploy. The COP$8 trillion emergency tax is politically explosive ahead of the March 8 legislative elections—it allows Petro to frame the crisis as requiring extraordinary measures from corporate Colombia, while the opposition will argue it is an opportunistic wealth tax disguised as disaster relief. The Constitutional Court must still validate the emergency decree.

The flooding’s agricultural impact could generate food price inflation through the first half of 2026, particularly for plantain, yucca, and banana exports. IDEAM warns that March and April seasonal rains could compound the crisis further.

Risk Level: Critical

Brazil — Election Race Tightens as Banco Master Scandal Engulfs Institutions; Carnival Begins Tomorrow

What Happened

• —Election Race Narrows: A Genial/Quaest poll (Feb 5–9, 2,004 voters, ±2pp) showed Lula at 37% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 33% in the tightest first-round scenario—a statistical tie. In a simulated runoff, Lula’s lead has shrunk to five points, down from a 16-point cushion six months ago. The consolidation of the right accelerated after São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas formally endorsed Flávio in late January. The October 4 general election is now a genuine contest, not the comfortable reelection many expected.
• —Banco Master Deepens: What Finance Minister Haddad has called potentially the largest bank fraud in Brazilian history continues generating near-daily revelations. The scandal now implicates two Supreme Court justices (Toffoli and Moraes), governors across the political spectrum, a former Lula justice minister whose law firm was retained by the bank, and the largest individual donor to Bolsonaro’s 2022 campaign. With R$40 billion in estimated losses, 1.6 million affected creditors, and Vorcaro’s claim of “friends in all branches of government,” comparisons to Lava Jato are becoming routine. Brazil just recorded its worst-ever Transparency International corruption score at 35/100.
• —Market Whipsaw: The Ibovespa surged 2.03% on Wednesday to a historic 189,699—breaching 190,000 intraday for the first time—but gave it all back Thursday, falling 1.02% to close at 187,766 in a region-wide pre-CPI risk-off. The real touched R$5.1872 midweek, its lowest since May 2024. Suzano surged 13.3% on record earnings. BCB president confirmed the March rate cut at BTG’s CEO Conference. Thursday was the last B3 session before Carnival; markets reopen Wednesday February 18.
• —Carnival Tomorrow: Rio Carnival officially launches Saturday, February 14, with 462 blocos and five nights of Sambódromo parades (Special Group Feb 15–17, Champions Parade Feb 21). The holiday is a real-economy test of consumer confidence in an election year, and will pause political Brasília through Ash Wednesday.

Why It Matters

Brazil is entering its most consequential election cycle since 2022 with institutions under simultaneous pressure from both the left and right. The Banco Master scandal threatens the Supreme Court’s credibility at the very moment it needs public trust to defend the democratic gains of Bolsonaro’s conviction and the January 8 trials. If the scandal continues to implicate figures across the political spectrum, it risks fueling the anti-establishment narrative that Flávio Bolsonaro is already exploiting—his central campaign plank is amnesty for January 8 participants, including his jailed father.

The market rally exists in tension with this political backdrop. Foreign inflows and rate-cut expectations have driven the Ibovespa to records, but Thursday’s 1.02% pullback showed the limits of euphoria heading into a CPI release that could reprice the entire EM carry trade. With B3 closed Monday–Tuesday for Carnival, positions are locked in at 187,766 until Wednesday—leaving investors exposed to any CPI fallout with no exit.

Risk Level: Elevated

Panama — CK Hutchison Threatens Maersk with Legal Action; Multi-Front Dispute Escalates

What Happened

• —CK Hutchison vs. Maersk: CK Hutchison warned A.P. Moller-Maersk on Thursday that “any steps” the Danish group takes to operate the Balboa and Cristóbal ports without its agreement could “result in legal recourse.” Maersk’s subsidiary APM Terminals was appointed by Panamanian authorities as temporary administrator of both ports after the Supreme Court ruling. The warning opens a third legal front alongside ICC arbitration and the investment treaty dispute.
• —Investment Treaty Notice: CK Hutchison notified Panama of a separate dispute under a bilateral investment protection treaty, saying it would pursue “all available recourse including additional national and international legal proceedings.” Analysts expect the multi-jurisdictional legal strategy to take years.
• —China Retaliation Continues: China’s state firm investment freeze and cargo rerouting guidance remain in place. The $23 billion CK Hutchison port sale to the BlackRock-led consortium remains entangled, with China demanding merger review and proposing Cosco join the buyer group.
• —Mulino Holding: President Mulino continues to dismiss Chinese threats and maintains the concession will “never again” go to a single company. Port operations under Maersk’s temporary administration continue without reported disruption.

Why It Matters

CK Hutchison’s threat against Maersk introduces the Danish shipping giant as an unwilling party to the U.S.-China proxy battle. If Maersk faces legal liability for operating the ports at Panama’s request, it creates a chilling precedent for any company asked to step into a role vacated by Chinese interests. This could complicate future decoupling efforts across the hemisphere.

The multi-front legal strategy—ICC arbitration, investment treaty claims, and now potential Maersk litigation—is designed to maximize pressure on Panama’s fiscal position. Each proceeding creates contingent liabilities that could affect Panama’s sovereign credit profile over time.

Risk Level: Critical

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