Key Market Events for the Week of April 6–10, 2026

Week Overview

The key market events this week center on an oil-shock inflation reckoning. March CPI (Friday 8:30 AM, cons. +1.0% MoM / 3.4% YoY vs. February’s 0.3% / 2.4%) is expected to deliver the largest single-month headline jump since the 2022 energy crisis, driven by the Hormuz-related surge in gasoline and energy prices that began in early March. Core CPI (cons. 0.3% MoM / 2.7% YoY vs. 0.2% / 2.5%) will show whether the oil shock is bleeding into non-energy prices — the answer determines whether the Fed treats this as transitory or embedded. Core PCE (Thursday 8:30 AM, cons. 0.4% MoM / 3.0% YoY vs. 0.4% / 3.1%) arrives one day earlier as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. FOMC Minutes (Wednesday 2:00 PM) from the March 18 hold will reveal how the committee discussed tariff inflation, oil prices, and the deteriorating labor market before last week’s NFP release. Speaking of which: Monday opens with the delayed reaction to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (cons. +56K vs. −92K in February) — released to closed Good Friday markets, the data will gap into Monday’s open. Easter Monday closes the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Australia. For LATAM, Brazil’s March IPCA (Friday 8:00 AM, prior 0.70% MoM / 3.81% YoY) is the first full-month inflation read since the Copom’s 25 bps cut to 14.75% — a hot print could freeze the easing cycle. Mexico CPI (Thursday, prior 0.50% MoM / 4.02% YoY) arrives with Banxico minutes the same day, providing the framework for the next rate decision. Peru’s central bank decides Thursday (prior 4.25%). Q4 GDP final (Thursday, cons. 0.7% QoQ) and Personal Spending complete the US picture. India’s RBI holds (Wednesday, cons. 5.25%), BoK decides (Thursday overnight), and China CPI (Thursday overnight, cons. 1.2% YoY) round out Asia.

Three Themes That Will Define the Week

Week in Context

Q2 opens under a pall. The US economy shed 92K jobs in February, consumer confidence has collapsed to 55.5 (Michigan) and 91.2 (Conference Board), and the Iran–Hormuz conflict has sustained Brent above $90 for over a month. Last week’s compressed Easter schedule delivered ISM Manufacturing (52.3), US Retail Sales, BanRep’s expected hike to 11.25%, Eurozone flash CPI at 2.5%, and the Good Friday NFP release — all of which markets had limited time to digest. This week is the reckoning. Monday’s gap trade on the NFP data sets the tone: if payrolls recovered to +56K (consensus), markets may stabilize; if they came in negative again, recession pricing intensifies immediately. Then the inflation data arrives in force. Core PCE on Thursday (cons. 3.0% YoY) would mark the Fed’s preferred gauge returning to 3-handle territory — a psychologically significant threshold that pushes the 2% target further away. Friday’s CPI (cons. 3.4% YoY) captures the first full month of the oil shock’s impact on consumer prices. FOMC Minutes Wednesday will reveal whether the committee’s internal models have already incorporated these dynamics or whether they’re still operating on pre-war assumptions. For LATAM, the inflation trifecta — Brazil IPCA, Mexico CPI, Colombia CPI — will show whether the global energy shock is transmitting to the region’s largest economies, each of which is at a different point in its monetary cycle: Brazil cutting cautiously, Mexico paused, Colombia hiking aggressively. Peru’s rate decision (Thursday) and Chile’s CPI add further texture. The week’s data density is extraordinary: PCE, GDP, Personal Income/Spending, CPI, Michigan, FOMC Minutes, three LATAM inflation prints, two Asian rate decisions, and the NFP aftermath — all in five days.

Monday is defined by the gap. US equity, bond, and FX markets open for the first time since Good Friday’s NFP release — whatever the March payrolls number, it gets priced in at 9:30 AM. If payrolls rebounded to +56K (consensus) or better, the opening should be orderly; if they came in negative for a second consecutive month, expect a sharp risk-off gap in equities and a Treasury rally. ISM Services (10:00 AM, cons. 54.8 vs. 56.1) follows immediately — the services sector has been the economy’s backbone, and any significant deceleration would compound NFP weakness. The Prices Paid component (prior 63.0) will signal whether the oil shock is feeding into services inflation. Brazil’s PMIs (9:00 AM) and Focus survey (7:25 AM) provide the first post-Easter LATAM reads. Easter Monday closes the UK, EU, Australia, South Africa, and China — thin European and Asian liquidity means the US session carries outsized importance.

Markets normalize after Easter. Final Services PMIs confirm the March flash readings — EZ Services (cons. 50.1) barely in expansion territory contrasts with the UK (cons. 51.2) holding up better. Sentix Investor Confidence (cons. −7.5 vs. −3.1) measures the post-Easter shift in European investor mood — the expected sharp drop would reflect the combined impact of the CPI spike, growth downgrade, and geopolitical uncertainty. US Durable Goods final (cons. −1.0%) confirms the capex picture. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (12:00 PM) will update oil price forecasts — critical context for CPI expectations later in the week. Chile’s copper exports and trade balance gauge how the world’s largest copper exporter is faring amid elevated commodity prices. Brazil’s trade balance (prior $4.21B) measures external sector resilience. Consumer Credit (3:00 PM, cons. $11.40B) shows whether Americans are leaning harder on credit amid falling confidence.

The FOMC Minutes are the week’s policy centerpiece. The March 18 meeting held rates at 3.50–3.75% with an unchanged dot plot — but the minutes will reveal the internal debate on tariff pass-through, oil-price modeling, and whether any members pushed for a more dovish signal given the labor market deterioration visible in the February data. Language on “transitory” versus “persistent” inflation will be closely parsed. The RBI decision (12:30 AM, cons. hold 5.25%) is India’s monetary policy anchor. German Factory Orders (cons. +3.2% vs. −11.1%) should show a sharp rebound from January’s collapse, but the underlying trend remains weak. Chile CPI (8:00 AM) provides a critical Andean inflation read — with the central bank having held at 4.50% and hinted at cuts, any upside surprise would delay easing. Mexico Consumer Confidence (8:00 AM, prior 44.4) gauges household sentiment ahead of Thursday’s CPI. Brazil’s IGP-DI wholesale inflation (prior −0.84% MoM) adds to the price picture ahead of Friday’s IPCA.

The week’s most loaded session. Core PCE (8:30 AM, cons. 0.4% MoM / 3.0% YoY) is the datapoint that matters most for Fed policy — a return to 3.0% annual core would be the first time since late 2024 and would push rate-cut expectations further out. It arrives alongside Q4 GDP final (cons. 0.7% QoQ, confirming the sharp deceleration from Q3’s pace), Personal Spending (cons. +0.5%), and Personal Income (cons. +0.3%). Mexico CPI (8:00 AM, prior 4.02% YoY) comes with Banxico’s March 26 minutes (11:00 AM) — together they form the complete picture of Mexican monetary policy direction. If headline CPI has accelerated above 4.5% on energy pass-through, the case for a Banxico hold or even hike strengthens; if it’s moderated, the 11 economists who wanted a cut in March gain credibility. Brazil Retail Sales (8:00 AM, prior +0.4% MoM) tests consumer resilience under 14.75% rates. Peru’s BCRP (7:00 PM, prior hold 4.25%) could deliver a cut if growth data has softened sufficiently. Colombia CPI (7:00 PM, cons. 5.47% YoY) validates last week’s BanRep hike. China CPI overnight (cons. 1.2% YoY) and BoK complete the Asian slate.

The week’s climax. US CPI (8:30 AM, cons. +1.0% MoM / 3.4% YoY) is expected to deliver a shock headline — a full percentage-point jump in the annual rate from February’s 2.4%, driven almost entirely by gasoline and energy. This would be the highest YoY reading since Q3 2023 and the largest single-month acceleration in years. Core CPI (cons. 0.3% / 2.7%) will determine the market reaction: if core holds at 0.3% or below, markets will treat the headline spike as an energy-driven transitory event; if core prints 0.4%+, the narrative shifts to broadening inflation and rate cuts get repriced out of 2026 entirely. Brazil IPCA (8:00 AM, prior 0.70% MoM / 3.81% YoY) releases 30 minutes before US CPI — the Copom’s easing path depends on this number. A reading above 0.80% MoM or 4.0% YoY would be hawkish for the April 28–29 meeting; a reading at or below February levels clears the runway for a larger 50 bps cut. Michigan sentiment prelim (10:00 AM, cons. 52.1 vs. 53.3) would mark a new multi-year low if confirmed, with the 1-year inflation expectation (prior 3.8%) potentially jumping above 4% for the first time since the 2022 energy shock — a major psychological threshold. Canada Employment (cons. +12.6K vs. −83.9K) tests whether February’s labor market collapse was an anomaly. This is the week that defines Q2 positioning.

The Bottom Line

The oil shock meets the inflation data. Friday’s CPI is the week’s gravitational center — a 3.4% headline reading would be the most dramatic single-month acceleration in consumer prices since the energy crisis, and while everyone knows it’s coming, the market’s reaction will hinge entirely on core. A 0.3% core reading (in line with consensus) lets the Fed maintain its “transitory energy shock” framing; a 0.4%+ core prints and the transitory narrative dies, with profound implications for rate expectations, bond yields, and risk assets through year-end. Thursday’s Core PCE (cons. 3.0% YoY) provides the Fed’s own preferred reality check one day earlier — returning to a 3-handle on core PCE is symbolically and practically significant. FOMC Minutes Wednesday will show whether the committee was already modeling these outcomes at the March 18 meeting or whether the data will force a recalibration. For LATAM, Brazil IPCA is the make-or-break number for the Copom’s April meeting. The central bank cut 25 bps to 14.75% with no forward guidance and raised its own 2026 inflation forecast to 3.9%. A benign March IPCA opens the door to a 50 bps acceleration; a hot print locks in another cautious 25 bps or even a pause. Mexico CPI plus Banxico minutes frame the next Mexican rate decision. Peru’s BCRP could deliver a surprise cut. Monday’s NFP gap trade, ISM Services, and the Easter catch-up ensure that no single session is quiet. Five days, two inflation gauges, three LATAM CPI prints, two Asian rate decisions, and the FOMC’s own internal debate. This is the week that sets the tone for Q2. Position for the core.