Key Market Events for the Week of March 23–27, 2026

Week Overview

Markets digest last week’s central bank cascade — the Copom’s 25 bps cut to 14.75%, the Fed hold at 3.50–3.75% with an unchanged dot plot, and the ECB/BoE/BoJ holds — while two more LATAM rate decisions arrive. Banxico announces Thursday at 3:00 PM ET (cons. hold at 7.00%, with a Reuters poll showing 16 of 28 economists expecting no change, 11 expecting a 25 bps cut to 6.75%, and one forecasting a hike). Chile’s central bank decides Tuesday at 5:00 PM ET (cons. hold at 4.50%, though FocusEconomics consensus points to a 25 bps cut to 4.25%). Flash PMIs for the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, and Australia (Tuesday) provide the first March activity read under the shadow of the Iran–Hormuz conflict and elevated oil prices. The Copom minutes (Tuesday 7:00 AM) will reveal the internal debate behind last week’s smaller-than-expected cut. Brazil’s mid-month IPCA-15 (Thursday, prior 0.84% MoM / 4.10% YoY) is the next inflation checkpoint after the Copom’s upward revision to 3.9% for 2026. Mexico delivers retail sales and first-half March CPI (Monday/Tuesday), unemployment and trade balance (Friday), plus the Banxico decision itself. The US schedule features Michigan consumer sentiment final (Friday, prelim 55.5), import/export prices (Wednesday), and durable goods (Thursday). Germany’s Ifo Business Climate (Wednesday, cons. 86.3) tests whether defense-spending optimism survives the geopolitical reality. Colombia is closed Monday (St. Joseph). Argentina is closed Tuesday (Memorial Day).

Three Themes That Will Define the Week

Week in Context

Last week delivered the quarter’s most consequential 48 hours: the Fed held at 3.50–3.75% with an unchanged dot plot still showing one 25 bps cut for 2026, Powell’s press conference acknowledged tariff and geopolitical inflation risks without shifting the rate path, and the ECB and BoE both held as expected. For LATAM, the Copom cut 25 bps to 14.75% — Brazil’s first rate reduction since May 2024 — but delivered it cautiously, without forward guidance, citing the “more uncertain” external environment from the Middle East conflict. The cut was unanimous, but the absence of signaling left markets guessing about April: a 50 bps move if oil retreats, a pause if it doesn’t. This week’s follow-through comes from three directions. First, the Copom minutes and IPCA-15 will clarify whether the easing path is accelerating or decelerating. Second, Banxico and Chile add two more LATAM rate decisions to the global conversation. Third, the flash PMIs will reveal whether March activity is holding up under war-era oil prices and tariff uncertainty, or whether the cracks visible in the February US data are deepening. Germany’s Ifo and UK CPI round out the developed-market picture. Michigan sentiment (final, Friday) will show whether the US consumer confidence collapse to 55.5 — the lowest since late 2022 — is holding or deepening further, with 1-year inflation expectations at 3.4% and 5-year at 3.2%.

A lighter open. Mexico Retail Sales (8:00 AM, prior +4.3% YoY / −0.1% MoM) are the day’s LATAM headline — strength would complicate Banxico’s Thursday decision by suggesting the economy doesn’t need rate cuts, while weakness would embolden the 11 economists forecasting a 25 bps reduction. Brazil’s Focus survey (7:25 AM) will show whether last week’s sharp IPCA forecast jump to 4.10% has stabilized or continued climbing after the Copom cut. EU Consumer Confidence (cons. −15.0 vs. −12.2) is expected to drop sharply, reflecting the war’s impact on household sentiment. Colombia markets are closed for St. Joseph.

The week’s most data-dense session. Eurozone flash PMIs (4:15–5:00 AM) set the tone — consensus expects German Manufacturing to slip below 50 again (49.8 vs. 50.9), signaling that the February manufacturing recovery may have been a one-month wonder as Hormuz-driven input costs bite. The Copom minutes (7:00 AM) are critical: markets want to know how many members favored 50 bps, what the committee’s oil-price assumptions were, and whether the absence of forward guidance signals genuine uncertainty or a deliberate return to meeting-by-meeting decisions. Mexico’s first-half March CPI and January Economic Activity (prior +3.30% YoY) provide the last inputs before Banxico’s Thursday call. US flash PMIs (9:45 AM) will show whether February’s 10-month-low composite reading was weather-driven or the start of a trend. Chile’s rate decision closes the day (5:00 PM, cons. hold 4.50%) — with inflation at 2.8% YoY and the bank hinting at near-term cuts, a surprise 25 bps reduction to 4.25% is a live possibility. Argentina is closed for Memorial Day.

The UK inflation/ECB speech double. UK CPI (3:00 AM, cons. 3.0% YoY) is expected to hold steady — but core CPI at 3.1% remains well above the BoE’s target, reinforcing last week’s hold decision. Lagarde speaks (4:45 AM) just days after the ECB released new staff projections showing 2026 GDP growth revised down 0.3 pp to 0.9% due to the Middle East crisis, with inflation projected to spike to 3.1% in Q2 before declining. German Ifo (5:00 AM, cons. 86.3 vs. 88.6) is expected to fall sharply — the expectations component (cons. 86.0 vs. 90.5) would signal that the defense-spending euphoria that lifted German sentiment in February is colliding with the reality of war, tariffs, and still-contracting manufacturing. Brazil’s FGV Consumer Confidence (7:00 AM, prior 86.1) gauges household sentiment post-Copom cut. US import prices (cons. 0.2% MoM) and crude inventories round out the day.

The week’s heavyweight session. Brazil’s IPCA-15 (8:00 AM, prior 0.84% MoM / 4.10% YoY) is the most market-moving LATAM datapoint — it will either validate or challenge the Copom’s decision to cut into an environment where its own 2026 inflation forecast jumped to 3.9%. A reading below 0.80% MoM would support expectations for a larger April cut; above 0.90% would reignite hawkish positioning. The BCB Inflation Report (7:00 AM) will provide the committee’s detailed scenario analysis, including oil-price assumptions and growth projections. Banxico (3:00 PM, cons. hold 7.00%) is the day’s global anchor — with the market split roughly 60/40 between hold and cut, the decision will move the peso significantly either way. Core inflation above 4.4% argues for patience; weak economic activity argues for action. The vote split and statement language matter as much as the decision. US claims (cons. 211K) provide the weekly labor market pulse. Argentina Economic Activity (prior +3.5% YoY) continues tracking the Milei-era recovery.

Week-closing employment and sentiment data. Mexico Unemployment (8:00 AM, prior 2.60%) and Brazil Unemployment (8:00 AM, prior 5.4%) provide simultaneous labor market reads from LATAM’s two largest economies. Mexico’s Trade Balance (prior −6.481B MXN) and Brazil’s Current Account and FDI data round out the external accounts picture. Michigan Consumer Sentiment final (10:00 AM, prelim 55.5) will confirm whether the February collapse in US consumer confidence has stabilized — the 1-year inflation expectation at 3.4% remains elevated, reflecting both tariff pass-through fears and oil-price anxiety. Spanish flash CPI (cons. 2.4% vs. 2.3%) provides the first March eurozone inflation read ahead of the full release next week. Baker Hughes rig count and CFTC positioning data close the week, with BRL and MXN speculative positions closely watched after the Copom cut and Banxico decision.

The Bottom Line

Two LATAM rate decisions, the Copom post-mortem, and the first real activity data under war-era conditions. The Banxico decision is the week’s single most consequential call for Latin American markets — a hold reinforces the “higher for longer” narrative across EM central banks, while a cut to 6.75% would signal that the growth imperative is winning despite sticky core inflation. Chile’s decision (Tuesday) is the quieter of the two but equally telling: with inflation at 2.8% and the bank signaling cuts ahead, a surprise move would mark the region’s second easing in a week. For Brazil, the Copom minutes and IPCA-15 form a paired read — the minutes reveal the committee’s thinking, the inflation data test whether that thinking holds. A benign IPCA-15 reading would clear the runway for a 50 bps cut in April; a hot one would validate last week’s cautious 25 bps approach. The flash PMIs will tell us whether March activity is buckling under $90+ oil, elevated input costs, and geopolitical uncertainty, or whether the Eurozone manufacturing recovery and US resilience are holding. German Ifo is the canary: if defense-spending optimism can’t survive one month of reality, the European growth story weakens fast. Michigan sentiment (Friday) captures the US consumer mood at a critical juncture — with inflation expectations unanchored and confidence near multi-year lows, any further deterioration would raise recession risk into the conversation. This is a week where LATAM central banks tell us which way they’re leaning. Listen carefully.