March 3, 2026 • Mexico City Morning Briefing • Covering the March 2 Session
The Big Three
IPC drops 1.15% to 70,584.75 as Operation Epic Fury sends shockwaves through global markets — the benchmark opened at its high of the day (71,487.82) and sold off steadily as the U.S.–Iran conflict escalated, with Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closure and retaliatory strikes across the Gulf rattling risk appetite. Televisa and Cuervo led the decline while mining heavyweight Grupo México held near record levels.
Peso weakens to 17.33 as dollar surges on safe-haven flows — the peso depreciated 0.62% to close at 17.31 per dollar, its third consecutive losing session. The DXY hit a 5-week high of 98.56 as Brent crude spiked 9% to $79.45. Banco Base warned the conflict could become a prolonged regional war with no clear resolution timeline.
Inflation accelerates to 3.92% in early February, Banxico paused at 7% — the first-half February INPC reading showed continued upward pressure from agricultural prices (the highest quincenal for farm goods since 1995) and services inflation. With the next Banxico decision on March 26, markets are pricing in an extended pause as the central bank monitors fiscal and tariff pass-through effects.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/BMV IPC Close | 70,584.75 | −821.02 (−1.15%) |
| IPC Session Range | 70,092.86 – 71,487.82 | 1.95% spread |
| IPC All-Time High | 72,111.41 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| IPC vs ATH | −2.12% | −1,526.66 pts |
| USD/MXN Close | 17.33 | +0.01 (+0.06%) |
| USD/MXN FIX (Banxico) | 17.34 | +0.12 vs prev FIX |
| Banxico Rate | 7.00% | Paused Feb 5 |
| Inflation (1H Feb, annual) | 3.92% | ↑ from 3.79% Jan |
| Core Inflation (1H Feb) | 4.52% | ↓ from 4.56% prev |
| S&P 500 | 6,881.62 | +2.74 (+0.04%) |
| Brent Crude | $79.45 | +$6.65 (+9.1%) |
| WTI Crude | $72.74 | +$5.72 (+8.5%) |
| DXY (Dollar Index) | 98.56 | +0.96% (5-wk high) |
| VIX | 21.44 | +1.58 (+7.96%) |
| UST 10Y Yield | 4.02% | ↑ from 3.94% |
Equities
The S&P/BMV IPC opened March with a 1.15% decline to 70,584.75, shedding 821 points as Operation Epic Fury and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a global risk-off repricing. The index opened at its session high of 71,487.82 and ground lower throughout the day, touching 70,092.86 before recovering slightly into the close — a bearish “open high, close low” session that signals sellers were firmly in control.
Consumer-facing and media stocks bore the brunt of the selling: Grupo Televisa led decliners, falling 2.82% to $10.00 amid ongoing pressure from its dividend cancellation announced last week and a Q4 2025 earnings miss. Becle (José Cuervo) dropped 2.28% to $17.14 as the tequila maker faced a double headwind from risk aversion and a stronger dollar eroding export competitiveness. Airlines and tourism-adjacent names tracked their Wall Street counterparts lower as investors priced in the potential for sustained oil prices above $80 and disrupted travel routes.
On the positive side, Grupo México held near record territory at $220.14 (previous close $219.03), buoyed by copper’s safe-haven bid and the mining sector’s structural tailwind. Peñoles remains the IPC’s standout YTD performer at +246.77%, riding gold’s extraordinary surge to $5,408/oz. The sector divergence underscores a market increasingly split between commodity beneficiaries and domestically oriented names exposed to consumption risk.
Despite Monday’s pullback, the IPC remains approximately 2.1% below its all-time high of 72,111.41 set on February 12. The index entered 2026 on a powerful 29.88% rally in 2025 — its best annual performance in 15 years — driven by gold and copper gains that supercharged the mining sector. Bx+ estimates IPC earnings growth of 15% for 2026, though the index now trades at 16.3x P/E, slightly above its five-year average, suggesting the easy gains are behind us.
Currency
The peso closed at 17.31 per dollar (Milenio) after depreciating 0.62% on the session — its third consecutive decline. Intraday, the pair traded between 17.23 and 17.37, with the Banxico FIX for March 2 coming in at 17.34 versus the previous 17.2193. In offshore trading Sunday night, the peso had briefly weakened to 17.3838, a level not seen since early February, before recovering.
Gabriela Siller of Banco Base described the session as one of “strong risk aversion,” noting that the peso’s decline was moderate relative to other EM currencies. The DXY surged to 98.56, a 39-day high, as safe-haven demand accelerated following the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and Iran’s retaliatory strikes. The peso’s relative resilience reflects Mexico’s status as a net oil exporter — the surge in crude prices provides a partial offset to the risk-off impulse.
Despite the session’s weakness, the peso ended February at approximately 17.23, appreciating 1.31% for the month and marking four consecutive months of gains. Year-over-year, the peso remains 15.3% stronger versus the dollar. The key near-term level to watch is 17.38–17.40 — a sustained break above would signal further deterioration and open space toward 17.57, the February intraday high.
Technical Analysis
IPC Daily Chart — S&P/BMV IPC (1D, BMV)
Monday’s candle printed a modest red body with a long lower wick, suggesting buyers stepped in near 70,093 but could not reclaim the opening level. The session occurred within the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a market in transition rather than full-blown breakdown — a critical distinction from the Colombian COLCAP, which fell through its cloud entirely.
OHLC: O 71,487.82 • H 71,487.82 • L 70,092.86 • C 70,584.75
RSI (14/14): 61.51 / 54.19 — both readings remain comfortably in neutral territory, well above the oversold threshold of 30. The dual RSI configuration shows the faster reading at 61.51 is pulling back from recent highs but has not yet generated a bearish crossover with the slower 54.19 line. There is room to fall before generating a technical buy signal.
MACD (12,26,9): 1,016.12 / 813.75 / −202.37 — the MACD line remains above the signal line at 1,016 vs 813, but the histogram has turned negative at −202.37, confirming decelerating bullish momentum. This divergence — price still well above the 200-SMA but momentum fading — typically precedes either a consolidation phase or a deeper correction.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price sits within the cloud (Kumo), signaling indecision. The cloud’s leading span has begun to narrow, suggesting reduced forward support. A close below 69,789 (cloud base) would confirm a bearish breakout and shift the medium-term trend.
Moving Averages: The 200-day SMA at 61,942.08 remains far below current levels (+13.9%), providing a significant structural cushion. The index continues to trade above all major moving averages, with the 50-day and 100-day still in bullish alignment. The orange rising trendline from August 2025 lows is being tested near 69,200–69,800.
USD/MXN Overlay: The chart overlays the peso at 30.26/30.20 (inverted scale), showing the currency weakening in tandem with the equity selloff. The correlation has tightened over the past week as geopolitical risk drives both assets.
Key Levels
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 72,111.41 | All-time high (Feb 12) |
| Resistance 2 | 70,832.64 | Recent swing high / chart level |
| Resistance 1 | 70,330.85 | Prior support, now resistance |
| Current Close | 70,584.75 | March 2 close |
| Support 1 | 69,789.73 | Ichimoku cloud base |
| Support 2 | 69,234.22 | Key horizontal support |
| Support 3 | 68,187.01 | February consolidation low |
| Support 4 | 67,286.24 | Deep pullback zone |
| 200-SMA | 61,942.08 | Long-term trend anchor (+13.9%) |
Global Context
The session was dominated by the fallout from Operation Epic Fury — the joint U.S.–Israeli military operation launched over the weekend that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top military officials. Iran retaliated with strikes on U.S. assets across the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria, and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to tanker traffic — effectively halting the passage of approximately 20% of the world’s petroleum and LNG supply.
Oil prices responded violently: Brent surged 9.1% to $79.45 (intraday high $82.37, the highest since January 2025), while WTI jumped 8.5% to $72.74. Analyst forecasts are escalating rapidly — Citi expects Brent at $80–$90 this week, JPMorgan sees a 3–4 week Hormuz squeeze pushing Brent above $100, UBS warns a sustained disruption could drive prices past $120, and Barclays targets a $100–$120 band.
Wall Street staged a remarkable intraday reversal: the S&P 500 touched −1.2% before recovering to close flat at 6,881.62 (+0.04%). The Nasdaq recovered from −1.6% to finish +0.36% at 22,748.86, while the Dow slipped 0.15% to 48,904.78. Defense stocks surged (Northrop Grumman +6%, Palantir +5.8%, Lockheed Martin +3.3%) and energy names rallied, but airlines and cruise lines were hammered (Carnival −10.6%, American Airlines −4.9%, Royal Caribbean −5.6%). UST 10-year yields rose to 4.02% from 3.94%.
The recovery was short-lived: overnight futures pointed sharply lower for Tuesday, with S&P futures down 0.9%, Nasdaq −1.2%, and Dow −428 points as the conflict escalated further. Asian markets opened deep in the red — Nikkei −3.06%, Hang Seng −1.25%, CSI 300 −1.54%. Gold surged to $5,408/oz on safe-haven demand.
For Mexico specifically, the oil shock is a double-edged sword: as a net crude exporter, higher prices boost government revenues and Pemex’s financial position, but elevated energy costs feed into inflation at a time when the CPI is already trending higher (3.92% annualized). The Hormuz disruption also threatens global supply chains, which could delay any nearshoring-driven recovery that the market has been pricing in.
Looking Ahead
Tuesday, March 3: Encuesta Banxico (February expectations survey) — watch for any upward revision to inflation forecasts and downward revisions to GDP growth given the new geopolitical backdrop. This is the first survey that will capture post-Iran-strike expectations.
Thursday, March 5: Consumer Confidence (February) and Private Consumption (December 2025) from INEGI. These readings will gauge whether the domestic consumer has remained resilient or is starting to fade under the weight of inflation and uncertainty.
Friday, March 6: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (February). A strong print would reinforce the Fed’s pause narrative and support the dollar, adding pressure on the peso. A weak reading could reopen the door for a July rate cut, currently priced at 45% probability.
Monday, March 9: Mexico trade balance (January) and the full February INPC release from INEGI. The trade data will provide the first look at how the new China-targeted tariffs (5–50% on 1,463 product lines) are affecting import patterns.
March 26: Banxico monetary policy decision. The consensus expectation is a hold at 7.00%, but the oil shock and its potential inflationary pass-through add a new hawkish variable. Natixis IM, HSBC, and Santander all see Banxico keeping rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026, while consensus expects two 25bp cuts to 6.50% by year-end.
Verdict
Mexico entered the Iran crisis from a position of relative strength — the IPC was within 2% of all-time highs, the peso was riding a four-month winning streak, and the mining sector’s dominance was masking softness in domestically oriented names. That strength now faces its most severe test since the tariff shock of late 2025.
The technical picture is more constructive than Colombia’s: RSI at 61/54 has ample room before oversold territory, the MACD remains positive (though histogram is fading), and the 200-SMA at 61,942 provides a 13.9% cushion. The index is consolidating within the Ichimoku cloud rather than breaking below it. But the negative histogram and the bearish open-high/close-low candle pattern warn that more downside is likely before a sustainable floor forms.
The key risk for Mexico is not the equity market — it’s the inflation-rate channel. If Brent sustains above $80–$90 for more than two weeks, the pass-through into transportation and energy costs will make Banxico’s 7% rate look increasingly tight. That would kill the rate-cut narrative, strengthen the dollar further, and pressure both the peso and rate-sensitive equities. Watch the 69,790 cloud base on the IPC and 17.38–17.40 on USD/MXN as the first lines of defense. A breach of either would signal a deeper repricing is underway.