Ibovespa rallied 1.40% to 183,447 on ceasefire optimism. The benchmark index surged for a second consecutive session as investors priced in a potential end to the Iran conflict. The index briefly topped 185,000 intraday before retreating as Wall Street closed mixed.
Brent crude collapsed 11.2% to $87.80 per barrel. The sharpest single-day decline in months followed Trump’s signal that the war is nearing completion and reports of multi-national SPR releases. WTI fell 11.9% to $83.45, unwinding the war premium that had pushed prices above $119.
Rumo (RAIL3) surged 6.96% on Ultrapar acquisition talks. Bloomberg reported advanced negotiations between Ultrapar, Perfin, and Cosan for a 30% stake in the rail logistics company. Magazine Luiza and Cosan also rallied over 6% as the rate-sensitive retail sector caught a bid from easing DI futures.
01Session Data
| Metric | Value | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa Close | 183,447.00 | +1.40% |
| Session High | 185,323.62 | intraday peak |
| Session Low | 180,692.83 | opening dip |
| Volume | R$ 23.2B | above 50d avg |
| USD/BRL | 5.1575 | −0.13% |
| DXY | 98.93 | −0.24% |
| S&P 500 | 6,781.48 | −0.21% |
| Brent Crude | $87.80 | −11.20% |
| Iron Ore 62% Fe | $103.75 | +2.13% |
| Gold | $5,236.50 | +2.60% |
| VIX | 22.81 | −10.55% |
02Market Commentary
The Ibovespa climbed 1.40% to 183,447 points on Tuesday, marking its second consecutive gain and its strongest single-session advance in over a week. The rally was fueled by growing optimism that the Iran conflict may be approaching its conclusion, after President Trump signaled the war is “very complete, pretty much.” The index briefly surpassed 185,000 intraday before surrendering roughly 1,900 points into the close as Wall Street turned mixed.
The session’s dominant catalyst was the stunning collapse in crude oil prices. Brent plunged 11.2% to $87.80 per barrel after touching nearly $120 on Monday, while WTI cratered 11.9% to $83.45. The unwinding of the war premium triggered a broad risk rotation out of energy and into rate-sensitive sectors. Logistics and retail stocks led the charge, with Rumo surging nearly 7% on Bloomberg-reported acquisition talks and Magazine Luiza rallying 6.5% as easing DI futures lifted the entire consumer discretionary complex.
On the losing side, Raízen fell 5.5% to R$ 0.52, extending its slide amid ongoing concerns about the company’s R$ 50 billion debt load. Cosan‘s CEO confirmed during a results call that the group is working on a plan for Raízen’s financial restructuring but will not sell assets at distressed prices. Braskem also retreated 4.5% as petrochemical margins compressed alongside the crude oil selloff.
In macro data, the first preview of the March IGP-M showed a contraction of 0.19%, moderating from February’s −0.49% reading. The Producer Price subindex narrowed from −0.88% to −0.36%, suggesting that wholesale deflation may be fading. DI futures closed largely flat with a mild hawkish tilt into the close, as traders weighed the oil-driven relief against lingering inflation risks from weeks of elevated energy costs. The Copom meets next week on March 17–18, with the market still pricing a 50 bps cut to bring Selic to 14.50%.
03Technical Analysis
The Ibovespa printed a strong bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart, opening at 180,921 and closing at 183,447 after reaching an intraday high of 185,324. The session’s 4,631-point range was the widest in over two weeks, signaling a decisive shift in momentum after the war-driven selloff that took the index from its all-time high of 192,624 to a low near 178,600 last week.
Price is now recovering toward the Ichimoku cloud zone, with the close sitting just below the Tenkan-sen near 184,640. The Kijun-sen rests at approximately 179,531, which held as support during Monday’s session. The broader cloud structure remains bullish, with Senkou Span A at 177,099 and Senkou Span B at 174,965 providing layered support well below current prices. The 200-day simple moving average sits at 152,076, confirming the long-term uptrend remains firmly intact.
Momentum indicators are improving from neutral territory. The RSI reads 59.12 on the faster signal and 50.60 on the slower line, indicating room for further upside before reaching overbought levels. The MACD histogram remains negative at −1,644, but the signal lines at 2,707 and 1,062 suggest the bearish crossover that began during the war selloff may be preparing to reverse. A confirmed MACD bullish crossover would validate the recovery thesis.
| Level | Points | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 192,624 | ATH (Feb 25) |
| Resistance 2 | 185,324 | Session high |
| Resistance 1 | 184,640 | Tenkan-sen |
| Support 1 | 179,531 | Kijun-sen |
| Support 2 | 177,099 | Senkou Span A |
| Support 3 | 174,965 | Senkou Span B |
04Forward Look
The Central Bank is widely expected to deliver a 50 bps cut, bringing Selic to 14.50%. The collapse in oil prices since last week strengthens the case for easing, though the Focus survey’s upward revision of Selic expectations to 12.13% for year-end signals the market wants to see more inflation data before pricing an aggressive cutting cycle.
Pre-oil-shock data drops today. Any above-consensus reading cements the stagflation narrative ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. Below-consensus would reinforce the rate-cut case and likely weaken the DXY further, supporting the real and risk assets.
Trump has signaled the war is near completion, but Iran’s IRGC called the comments “nonsense” and threatened to halt all Hormuz exports. The gap between diplomatic rhetoric and military reality remains wide. Any re-escalation would immediately reverse the oil-driven risk rally.
Finance Minister Haddad indicated his secretary Dario Durigan would likely succeed him, providing continuity for fiscal policy. The market is watching for confirmation from Lula, with any surprise appointment potentially disrupting the current constructive fiscal narrative.
05Verdict
The Ibovespa is in recovery mode. Tuesday’s 1.40% gain, built on the back of a historic crude oil collapse and ceasefire optimism, has lifted the index decisively off last week’s war-driven lows. The recapture of the 183,000 level puts the Tenkan-sen resistance at 184,640 within striking distance, and a break above that line would open a path toward the session high at 185,324.
The setup is cautiously bullish but fragile. The oil-driven rally could reverse in a single headline if the Strait of Hormuz closure intensifies or diplomatic channels break down. The VIX at 22.81 is still elevated by historical standards, and the MACD histogram remains negative, meaning the technical recovery is incomplete.
Today’s US CPI print is the near-term swing factor. A benign reading would validate the rate-cut thesis on both sides of the equator and likely push the Ibovespa toward 185,000+. A hot number would revive stagflation fears and test the 179,500 Kijun-sen support. With the Copom meeting just one week away, the next few sessions will determine whether this bounce becomes a sustained recovery or a bear-market rally within the broader war correction.
Bias: Cautiously bullish above 179,500, with 184,640 as the key resistance to clear.