Ibovespa extends its losing streak to three sessions, closing at 186,016 (−0.24%) as Vale’s 3.57% plunge overwhelmed the broader market. Trading resumed at 13:00 on Ash Wednesday (shortened session, 13h–17h55) with the index oscillating between 187,865 and 185,290. The S&P 500 closed up 0.56%, but Vale ON — the index’s heaviest weight — negated the positive backdrop. Despite three down days, the Ibovespa is still up 2.57% in February and 15.45% YTD.
Vale (VALE3) collapsed 3.57% to R$83.92 as Chinese markets remain shut for Lunar New Year through February 24, removing the iron ore anchor. With Dalian and Shanghai closed, liquidity migrated to Singapore, where iron ore settled at ~$95.95/tonne — the lowest since November. Beijing offered no holiday stimulus signals. Vale has now turned negative for February (−0.47%) after being up 16.62% YTD entering the session.
FOMC minutes revealed a near-unanimous hold at 3.50–3.75%, but deep divisions on next steps — “several” members floated further hikes if inflation persists. The 10-2 vote masked a more contentious internal debate than expected. This complicates the rate-cut narrative supporting Brazilian risk assets and the R$33+ billion in foreign equity inflows through February 11. The real softened modestly to R$5.2406 (+0.20%).
Session Data
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 186,016.31 | −0.24% |
| Ibovespa Futures | 185,435 | −0.86% |
| USD/BRL | R$5.2406 | +0.20% |
| S&P 500 | +0.56% | +0.56% |
| Dow Jones | 49,662.66 | +0.26% |
| Nasdaq | 22,753.63 | +0.78% |
| Brent Crude | $67.55 | +0.19% |
| Iron Ore (Singapore) | ~$95.95/t | lowest since Nov |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,932.83 | +0.09% |
| BTC/USD | $68,083 | +0.91% |
| Ibovespa YTD | +15.45% | Feb: +2.57% |
Blue Chips & Key Movers
| RAIZ4 | Raízen | +6.35% |
| RECV3 | PetroReconcavo | +3.59% |
| CSAN3 | Cosan | +2.94% |
| SANB11 | Santander Unit | +1.86% |
| PETR3 | Petrobras ON | +1.11% |
| PETR4 | Petrobras PN | +0.81% |
| PCAR3 | Pão de Açúcar | −4.55% |
| VALE3 | Vale ON | −3.57% |
| IRBR3 | IRB Brasil | −3.03% |
| MRFG3 | Marfrig ON | −1.44% |
| ABEV3 | Ambev ON | −1.35% |
| BBDC3 | Bradesco ON | −0.61% |
Market Commentary
The B3’s return from Carnival was a tale of two markets. Energy names surged on a 4% oil rally — Raízen +6.35%, PetroReconcavo +3.59%, Cosan +2.94% — driven by US-Iran tensions and the failure of Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva. Miners went the opposite way as Chinese markets stayed shut.
Petrobras advanced just 0.81% despite oil’s move — underperforming its commodity beta and signaling pre-earnings caution ahead of Q4 results.
Vale’s 3.57% decline was the session’s defining event. Without the Dalian iron ore benchmark, Singapore contracts slipped to $95.95/tonne — the lowest since November. Beijing offered no stimulus signals. Vale was the single largest contributor to the Ibovespa’s negative close.
Banks were split. Santander units surged 1.86% to the session high, Itaú added 0.46%, but Bradesco fell (ON −0.61%, PN −0.29%). The divergence likely reflects pre-earnings positioning as the Copom-signaled March easing approaches. Tesouro Direto yields declined across the curve (IPCA+ 2050 fell to 6.86% from 6.92%).
Turnover of R$89.4 billion was inflated by Ibovespa options expiry — roughly triple normal volume. The real softened to R$5.2406 (+0.20%), which ONE Investimentos attributed to global dollar strength rather than domestic factors. Focus consensus still projects R$5.50 year-end.
Technical Analysis
Ibovespa — Daily (TradingView, Feb 19 07:10 UTC): O: 186,464 / H: 187,657 / L: 185,001 / C: 186,016 (−448, −0.24%). Small bearish candle with a pronounced upper wick — the index tested 188,000 before sellers emerged in the final hours.
Price remains above all Ichimoku lines: Tenkan-sen ~185,415, Kijun-sen ~181,987, cloud at 176,163–172,875. The 200-SMA at 148,616 (25% below) confirms the secular uptrend is robust.
Two cautionary signals: the MACD histogram has turned negative at −233.15 (MACD 5,637 crossing below signal 5,403), and RSI reads 73.29 — overbought, the highest since October 2025.
Bollinger Bands: upper at 192,930, midline ~180,789, lower ~169,483. Three down days have pulled price away from the upper band — constructive for sustaining the uptrend. Key levels: resistance at 187,500–188,000, support at Tenkan (185,415) then Kijun (181,987). The Ibovespa sits just 225 points below its Feb 9 all-time closing high of 186,241.
| Level | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 192,930 | Upper Bollinger Band |
| Resistance 2 | 190,000 | Psychological / BB Investimentos target |
| Resistance 1 | 187,500 | Recent consolidation ceiling |
| Close | 186,016 | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 185,415 | Tenkan-sen (daily) |
| Support 2 | 181,987 | Kijun-sen (daily) |
| Support 3 | 176,163 | Senkou Span A (Ichimoku cloud) |
Forward Look
China holiday vacuum (through Feb 24): Without Dalian pricing, Vale trades on sentiment and Singapore futures. Any surprise Beijing stimulus would be immediately bullish. Current base case: no announcements, continued pressure.
FOMC fallout: “Several” members floating hikes complicates the carry trade thesis behind R$33B+ in foreign equity inflows. If rate-cut expectations are pushed out, USD/BRL could test R$5.30.
Copom March easing: The domestic counterweight. A Selic cut from 15.00% would be the cycle’s first, reigniting appetite for rate-sensitive sectors. Consensus: 25bp to 14.75%, though 50bp has non-trivial probability.
Supreme Court tariff ruling (Feb 20): Polymarket gives 70% odds the court strikes down Trump’s tariffs. Invalidation would trigger global risk-on — a major tailwind for Brazilian equities.
Three down sessions in a row, but the Ibovespa remains within 225 points of its all-time high — this is consolidation, not capitulation.
Messy but manageable. Vale’s 3.57% plunge dominated, yet the index held above 185,000 — a sign of underlying strength. Energy names offset the mining drag, with Raízen‘s 6.35% surge and oil’s 4% rally providing a floor.
The catalyst calendar favors bulls: Copom’s March easing signal, potential Supreme Court tariff invalidation (Feb 20), and Chinese markets reopening Feb 24 all tilt positive.
RSI at 73.29 is overbought but not extreme for a market with 10 record closes in 2026. Tenkan-sen at 185,415 is first support — a hold there keeps the path to 190,000 intact.
Key risk: a hawkish Fed repricing that slows the R$33B+ foreign inflow wave. Without carry trade support, these valuations get thinner. Technical bias: Bullish above 185,400; Neutral 182,000–185,400; Bearish below 182,000.