B3 / Ibovespa Daily Report · February 27, 2026 · Covering February 26 Session
The Big Three
Ibovespa holds 191K for the third straight session as Nvidia’s post-earnings selloff hammers the Nasdaq. The index dipped just 0.13% to 191,247 on R$27.4 billion turnover, digesting Tuesday’s 13th record close of 2026 while New York’s Nasdaq dropped 1.18% after investors punished the chipmaker with a 5.5% decline despite another earnings beat.
IGP-M deflation of −0.73% surprises to the downside, setting a benign stage for Friday’s IPCA-15. February’s wholesale price index beat the −0.65% median, reversing January’s +0.41%. The market now expects the broad CPI’s 12-month rate to drop to 3.81% from 4.50% — comfortably within the target band and fueling rate-cut expectations for Copom’s March meeting.
B3 itself delivers a blowout Q4, beating the Street with R$1.4 billion in recurring profit. The exchange operator’s earnings topped Bloomberg consensus by 17%, riding the wave of record-setting volumes and foreign inflows that surpassed R$35.6 billion year-to-date through February 20 — already exceeding all of 2025’s R$25.4 billion total.
01Session Data
| Metric | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa Close | 191,247.46 | −0.13% |
| Session High | 192,624 | +0.59% |
| Session Low | 190,419 | −0.56% |
| Volume | R$27.43B | avg range |
| USD/BRL (Comercial) | 5.1389 | +0.27% |
| DXY | 97.68 | +0.06% |
| S&P 500 | 6,908.86 | −0.54% |
| Dow Jones | 49,499.20 | +0.03% |
| Nasdaq | 22,878.38 | −1.18% |
| VIX | 15.06 | +1.07% |
| Brent Crude | ~$68 | −1.0% |
| Gold | $5,226 | +0.97% |
| IGP-M (Feb) | −0.73% | vs −0.65% exp |
02Key Movers
| Stock | Sector | Change | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| POMO3 | Industrials | +5.56% | Q4 earnings beat: net income R$341.7M (+7.2% YoY) |
| HAPV3 | Healthcare | +4.78% | Rebound from prior selloff; sector rotation into defensives |
| PCAR3 | Retail | +4.25% | Pão de Açúcar bounce after prior-session loss on Q4 miss |
| VALE3 | Mining | −0.84% | Profit-taking after +2.55% prior session; still +5.80% in Feb |
| RDOR3 | Healthcare | −4.53% | Sell-the-news on Q4 results despite strong Jan-Feb commentary |
| VAMO3 | Logistics | −2.98% | Continued pressure; fleet renewal headwinds under Selic 15% |
03Market Commentary
The Ibovespa spent Thursday consolidating near record levels in a session shaped by two crosscurrents: a benign domestic inflation surprise and a risk-off tone imported from Wall Street. The index opened at 191,248, briefly touched 192,624 (+0.59%) before selling pressure from New York’s Nvidia reaction dragged it to a 190,419 low (−0.56%). By the close it had recovered to 191,247, down a negligible 0.13% — marking the third consecutive session above the 191K floor. Volume at R$27.4 billion was in line with the 20-day average.
The session’s internal rotation was sharp. Blue chips gave back ground after a torrid run: Vale ON slipped 0.84% after Wednesday’s 2.55% surge, though it still holds a commanding 5.80% gain for February and roughly 24% year-to-date. Bradesco PN fell 0.90%, Banco do Brasil ON lost 1.09%, and Itaú PN dipped 0.25%. Petrobras was the exception, holding flat with PETR4 at +0.10% and PETR3 at −0.14%, as oil markets whipsawed on US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. Felipe Cima of Manchester Investimentos described the session as “quite volatile for markets, mainly in oil, with a lot of anxiety over the Iran nuclear negotiations.”
The real action was in the second tier. Marcopolo surged 5.56% on a Q4 earnings beat — net income of R$341.7 million, up 7.2% year-over-year. Hapvida rallied 4.78% in a defensive rotation, while Pão de Açúcar climbed 4.25% in a bounce from its prior-session loss. On the losing side, Rede D’Or tumbled 4.53% in a classic sell-the-news dynamic despite CEO Paulo Moll reporting strong January-February trends in both the hospital and insurance segments. Vamos dropped 2.98% and Natura fell 2.73%.
Across the Atlantic, Nvidia’s 5.5% post-earnings selloff set the tone. Despite posting Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion and earnings above estimates, investors questioned the sustainability of hyperscaler capex growth. The S&P 500 fell 0.54% to 6,908.86, the Nasdaq dropped 1.18% to 22,878, while the Dow eked out a 0.03% gain. The disconnect between Brazil’s resilience and the US tech rout underscores the ongoing EM rotation trade — as Ágora Investimentos noted, global investors are “slightly more skeptical of the AI thesis,” which paradoxically benefits value-heavy EM indices like the Ibovespa.
04Technical Analysis
Daily (1D):
The daily chart shows the Ibovespa consolidating in a tight range just below its all-time closing high of 191,490 (Feb 24). Price remains firmly above the Ichimoku cloud, with the Tenkan-sen at 191,005 providing immediate dynamic support and the Kijun-sen at 189,101 offering secondary support. The cloud’s leading span sits near 150,276 — irrelevantly far below — confirming the deeply bullish trend structure on a medium-term basis. The 200-day SMA at approximately 150,276 is some 21% below the close.
Momentum indicators are flashing caution. The MACD histogram at −259.98 is negative and widening slightly, suggesting near-term momentum is cooling even as the signal lines (5,308 / 5,048) remain elevated in positive territory. The bearish divergence between price (near ATH) and MACD histogram (negative and deepening) warrants monitoring. RSI at 69.87 has pulled back from overbought territory, sitting right on the 70 threshold — neither screaming for a correction nor signaling fresh impetus. Safra’s technical team identified resistance at 194,000 and key support at 186,000, with a secondary floor at 180,300. A healthy consolidation between 190,000 and 192,000 would reset short-term oscillators without threatening the prevailing trend.
| Level | Price | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 194,000 | Safra resistance target |
| Resistance 2 | 192,624 | Intraday high (Feb 26) |
| Resistance 1 | 191,490 | ATH close (Feb 24) |
| Pivot | 191,247 | Feb 26 close |
| Support 1 | 189,101 | Kijun-sen (daily) |
| Support 2 | 186,000 | Safra first support / Bollinger area |
| Support 3 | 180,300 | Safra secondary support |
05Forward Look
IPCA-15 on Friday.
The preview inflation print is expected at 0.56% monthly, which would bring the 12-month rate down to 3.81% from 4.50%. After today’s IGP-M deflation surprise, a soft IPCA-15 reading below 0.50% could reignite rate-cut bets for the Copom’s March 17-18 meeting — the first potential easing since Selic reached 15%.
US PPI and Month-End Rebalancing.
Friday’s US producer price index will round out the inflation picture. With the Fed signaling patience — swaps price only 2% odds of a March cut — any upside surprise could pressure EM assets. Meanwhile, Ptax fixing and month-end portfolio rebalancing may amplify FX volatility in the final session of February.
Iran Nuclear Talks Remain the Oil Wildcard.
Oil prices have been whipsawing on headlines from Geneva, and the US advisory for American-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters adds a persistent geopolitical risk premium. Any breakdown in negotiations could spike Brent above $70 and benefit Petrobras; a deal would ease the premium and weigh on the stock.
Earnings Season Continues.
After-hours releases from B3 (R$1.4B recurring profit, beat consensus), Caixa Seguridade, and Axia will be digested on Friday. The Aegea CVM approval for a potential IPO adds another catalyst on the equity supply side. Petrobras Q4 results on March 5 remain the next major blue-chip event.
Verdict
Thursday’s session was the market catching its breath for a second consecutive day, not losing conviction. The Ibovespa touched 192,624 intraday, dipped to 190,419 in sympathy with the Nasdaq’s Nvidia selloff, and still closed just 0.13% lower — holding 191K for the third straight session. The ability to digest a 5.5% Nvidia decline with barely a scratch speaks to the domestic narrative’s independence from the US tech trade.
The structural bull case remains intact. Foreign flows of R$35.6 billion year-to-date already exceed all of 2025’s R$25.4 billion. The IGP-M deflation surprise at −0.73% strengthens the case for a March rate cut. B3’s own blowout earnings — R$1.4 billion in recurring profit, 17% above consensus — confirm the exchange itself is riding the rally. February is set to close with roughly 5.3% gains, putting the Ibovespa on track for its seventh consecutive monthly advance — the longest such streak since the 16-month run from April 1996 to July 1997.
The risk comes from altitude. RSI at 69.87 is flirting with overbought, the MACD histogram is printing negative bars at −260, and the disconnect between a flat Ibovespa and a falling Nasdaq cannot hold forever. BTG’s February Sentiment Compass shows managers getting more selective — 32% favoring utilities, 32% financials — defensive positioning that acknowledges the rally’s maturity. A consolidation toward 189,000 would be healthy, allowing moving averages to catch up before the next leg. The path to 200,000 remains open, but it runs through Friday’s IPCA-15 and the Copom’s March signal.
Bias: BULLISH · trend intact but tactically stretched · watch IPCA-15 and 189K support