Ibovespa Flat After Wild Swing on Trump

01Session Data

02What Happened

Today’s Ibovespa market report covers a session that was anything but quiet — even if the closing print barely moved. The B3’s benchmark index eked out a +0.05% gain to 188,052.02, but the 4,037-point intraday range (from 185,214 to 189,251) told the real story of a market caught between two competing forces: Trump’s hawkish overnight speech and emerging Hormuz diplomacy.

The session opened in the red after Trump’s Wednesday night address to the nation torpedoed the de-escalation narrative that had powered the Ibovespa’s four-day winning streak. Trump declared U.S. objectives “nearing completion” but promised “extremely hard” hits over the next two to three weeks, vowing to bring Iran “back to the Stone Ages.” Oil surged more than 5% after hours, Asia reversed hard (Nikkei −2.38%, Kospi −4.47%), and European markets fell broadly with the STOXX 600 losing about 1%. The Ibovespa opened down 1.29% at 185,537 and sank to 185,214 mid-morning.

The turnaround came from two diplomatic developments. First, Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported that Tehran is developing a transit monitoring protocol with Oman for the Strait of Hormuz. Second, the UK announced that roughly 40 countries are discussing a joint effort to reopen the strait and prevent Iran from holding “the global economy hostage.” These headlines pushed the index above 189,000 before profit-taking and holiday caution pulled it back to the flat close.

The sectoral split was stark. Petrobras and oil-linked names surged on Brent’s nearly 8% jump to US$ 109.03 per barrel, acting as the Ibovespa’s primary support. PRIO3 rallied after reporting Q1 production of 155,300 boe/d, a 42.1% annual increase. On the other side, banks — the index’s largest weighting — were hammered by rising yields and risk aversion: Itaú fell 1.21%, Bradesco dropped 1.52%, Banco do Brasil lost 1.02%, and BTG Pactual declined 0.57%. Santander was the sole exception among large banks, rising a marginal 0.10%.

Cyrela fell 3.51% after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to neutral and cut the price target. RD Saúde led the Ibovespa’s losers. Vale reversed early losses to close up 0.66%, helped by Bank of America upgrading the stock to buy with a R$ 100 price target. VP Alckmin confirmed he will leave the MDIC ministry by April 4 to join Lula’s reelection ticket, and Petrobras continued GLP deliveries despite Lula ordering the cancellation of a fuel auction.

Wall Street also staged an intraday reversal. The S&P 500 recovered from a 1.5% loss to close up 0.11%, the Nasdaq gained 0.18%, while the Dow slipped 0.12%. Tesla fell 5.4% on weak Q1 deliveries. Blue Owl capped private credit redemptions after requests of 40.7% in its OTIC fund. The week closed with the Ibovespa up 3.58% — its second consecutive week with gains above 3% — and foreign inflows in March reaching approximately R$ 11.7 billion, bringing the YTD total to around R$ 53.4 billion.

03Key Movers

Gainers

Losers

04Technical Snapshot

The Ibovespa closed at 188,052.02, printing an indecisive doji-like candle with long upper and lower wicks — a sign of equilibrium between bulls and bears. The session opened at 187,923, plunged to 185,214 (−1.46%), rallied to 189,251 (+0.69%), and settled just 99 points above Wednesday’s close.

RSI stands at 59.46 (signal: 50.84) — bullish but approaching the 60 threshold that has historically capped rallies in recent months. The MACD histogram at 1,073.45 (MACD: 752.63, signal: 320.87) remains in a strong bullish crossover with momentum widening. The index is trading above all major Ichimoku levels and well above the 200-day SMA at 155,877.

Key levels: Resistance at 188,450 (upper Bollinger vicinity) → 189,251 (Thursday’s intraday high) → 191,490 (February’s all-time high). Support at 184,460 → 183,667 / 183,508 (SMA cluster) → 183,122 → 182,736 / 182,059 (20-day area) → 178,099 → 175,669 (lower Bollinger) → 155,877 (200-day).

The real held near its strongest level since May 2024 at R$ 5.16, barely moving on the session despite the wild swings in equities and oil. The MACD is negative (−0.0041 / −0.0092 / −0.0133), confirming the downtrend in the dollar. RSI at 48.87 (signal: 42.99) is neutral, suggesting room for further real appreciation. The carry trade — with Selic at 14.75% versus the Fed at 4.25–4.50% — continues to attract foreign inflows, with the weekly drop of 1.51% in USD/BRL reflecting sustained positioning. Key support: 5.12 (May 2024 low) → 5.05. Resistance: 5.20–5.23 (SMA cluster) → 5.37 (upper Bollinger).

05Verdict

Thursday’s session will be remembered for the intraday drama, not the closing number. The Ibovespa survived a hawkish geopolitical shock, losing nearly 1,500 points at the open before clawing back to close essentially flat — the fifth consecutive gain for the index. That the recovery happened on thin holiday volume (R$ 24.6B vs. the R$ 35.6B daily average) makes the resilience more, not less, impressive.

The market is being held up by two structural pillars. First, the Petrobras/oil trade: as long as Hormuz stays effectively closed and Brent sits above $100, energy names provide a floor for the index even when everything else sells off. Second, the carry trade: Selic at 14.75% with a strong real at R$ 5.16 continues to pull foreign capital into Brazil, as evidenced by March’s R$ 11.7 billion in net inflows and the staggering R$ 53.4 billion YTD total.

But the banking sector’s weakness is a warning. Itaú, Bradesco, and Banco do Brasil — three of the Ibovespa’s heaviest weights — all closed red, and only Petrobras’s surge prevented a materially negative session. If oil turns (on a surprise ceasefire) without a compensating rally in domestics, the rotation could be painful.

Bias: Cautiously bullish — but structurally exposed to a binary Easter weekend. The technical setup remains supportive (MACD bullish, RSI below overbought, above all moving averages), and the carry trade provides a floor. However, the next session on Monday April 6 must absorb Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls (published into a closed market), any weekend Hormuz developments, and potentially the April 6 ceasefire deadline that markets had been pricing. Volatility on Monday’s open is virtually guaranteed.

06Forward Look

Good Friday (April 3): B3 and all Brazilian markets closed. U.S. markets also closed, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the March nonfarm payrolls report at 08:30 ET — the data drops into a vacuum with no market to react.

Easter Weekend (April 4–5): Trump has promised “extremely hard” strikes on Iran. Any Hormuz developments — positive or negative — will accumulate with no price discovery until Monday. The April 6 ceasefire deadline (set when Trump paused attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure on March 27) remains the key binary event.

Monday April 6: The most information-dense open of the quarter. Markets must simultaneously price in NFP data, any Hormuz/ceasefire progress (or escalation), and the expiration of Trump’s energy infrastructure pause. Gap risk is elevated in both directions. The Ibovespa first preview for May–August removed Cyrela, Localiza, IRB(Re), and Axia preferred class C, with no additions. Next Copom: April 28–29.

Key context: Focus IPCA 2026 at 4.31%. Year-end Selic consensus at 12.25%. QAV (jet fuel) +55% effective April 1. BTG Pactual swapped PRIO for Petrobras and brought back Embraer in its April model portfolio, reflecting a bet on de-escalation and lower oil ahead. The domestic macro story is supportive — Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.0 in March (slowest contraction since May 2025) — but the war remains the dominant variable.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.