B3 / Ibovespa Daily Report · March 27, 2026 · Covering March 26 Session
1
IPCA-15 surprises to the upside at +0.44% (vs +0.29% cons) as war-driven costs bite harder than expected. The March mid-month inflation gauge decelerated from February’s 0.84% but overshot consensus by 15 basis points, driven by airfares (+5.94%) and food prices. The 12-month rate held at 3.90%, within the target band, but ASA immediately raised its full-year IPCA estimate from 4.4% to 4.6%. Bradesco warned that fuel and fertilizer cost pressures “will be more difficult to reverse in the short term.” The BCB’s RPM confirmed inflation will stay above the 3% target for the next two years.
2
Wall Street rout deepens as Nasdaq enters correction — Lagarde warns markets “too optimistic.” The Nasdaq fell 2.38%, officially entering correction territory at −10% from its October ATH. The S&P 500 dropped 1.74% and the Dow lost 1.01% after ECB President Lagarde warned that equity markets were “too optimistic” amid the “real shock” of the Iran war. The IRGC Navy commander Tangsiri was confirmed killed in an Israeli airstrike, escalating tensions further. Iran rejected the 15-point US peace proposal, demanding a halt to “aggression” and recognition of Hormuz sovereignty.
3
Petrobras holds green on Marlim Sul discovery and $102 Brent while banks and cyclicals bleed. PETR4 rose ~0.6% as Brent surged 4.61% to $101.89 and the company announced a pre-salt oil discovery at Marlim Sul in the Campos Basin. Petrobras also expanded diesel and gasoline supply to distributors after shortage warnings. Banks dragged the index: Itaú −1.0%, Bradesco −0.6%, Banco do Brasil −1.17%, Sabesp −1.0%+. Americanas surged 17% on its judicial recovery exit filing. The BCB conducted two $500 million line auctions ($1 billion total) in the afternoon to support the real.
01Session Data
| Metric | Value | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa Close | 182,732.67 | −1.45% |
| USD/BRL | R$ 5.2562 | +0.69% |
| Brent Crude (Jun) | $101.89 | +4.61% |
| S&P 500 | ~6,468 | −1.74% |
| Nasdaq | 21,408 | −2.38% (correction) |
| Stoxx 600 | 580.84 | −1.13% |
| IPCA-15 (MoM) | +0.44% | vs +0.29% cons |
| Selic Rate | 14.75% |
02Market Commentary
Today’s Ibovespa market report covers a session that erased Wednesday’s 1.60% rally in full. The index fell 1.45% to 182,733 as a triple headwind converged: an IPCA-15 surprise, a global equity rout triggered by Lagarde’s warning, and oil surging back above $100 after the IRGC Navy commander’s assassination. The four-day recovery from 176,219 to 185,424 is now partially unwound, though the index remains 6,500 points above last week’s war-period low. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of B3 and Latin American financial markets.
The IPCA-15 defined the domestic mood. At +0.44% against a +0.29% consensus, the miss was concentrated in volatile items — airfares surged 5.94% and food prices exceeded expectations — but the signal was clear: the war’s cost pressures are feeding through faster than anticipated. The BCB’s Inflation Report confirmed inflation will remain above the 3% target for two years, and director Picchetti flagged that the geopolitical conflict’s “duration and intensity remain unpredictable.” ASA’s immediate revision of its 2026 IPCA estimate from 4.4% to 4.6% is the kind of re-anchoring that complicates the easing path. The May 25 bp cut remains the base case, but the margin of confidence has narrowed.
The external selloff was severe. The Nasdaq entered correction territory at −10% from its ATH after Lagarde’s “too optimistic” warning, the S&P 500 dropped 1.74%, and the Stoxx 600 fell 1.13%. Iran’s rejection of the peace proposal and the Tangsiri killing sent Brent back above $100. Petrobras held positive on the oil rebound and the Marlim Sul discovery, but it could not carry the entire index as banks and rate-sensitive names sold off. The BCB’s $1 billion FX intervention via line auctions in the afternoon session prevented a sharper real decline.
03Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows a long red candle (O 185,424 / H 185,424 / L 182,570 / C 182,733) that opened at the high and sold off — a classic distribution pattern. Notably, the MACD histogram has turned positive at 63.09 (signal: −97.92, MACD: −161.01), marking the first bullish crossover since the war selloff. However, the crossover fired on a down day — a signal that needs confirmation from a green session to avoid a failed cross. RSI at 51.39 (fast) and 47.63 (slow) shows the fast line above 50 but the slow line still below, confirming the momentum recovery is incomplete.
Price has pulled back to the Senkou Span cluster at 182,034–182,276, which is now the immediate support zone. The Bollinger mid-band at 181,001 and the Kijun-sen at 180,720 provide secondary support. The 200-day SMA at 154,679 remains far below, confirming the secular uptrend is intact. A close below 181,001 would negate the MACD crossover and signal the recovery is failing.
Support & Resistance
| Level | Points | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 188,610 | Upper Bollinger / Feb ATH zone |
| Resistance 1 | 183,831 | Tenkan-sen |
| Close | 182,733 | March 26, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 182,034 | Senkou Span cluster |
| Support 2 | 181,001 | Bollinger mid / MACD confirm zone |
| Support 3 | 177,194 | Lower Bollinger Band |
04Forward Look
Trump’s strike pause expires Friday. Iran has rejected the 15-point peace proposal and demanded a halt to “aggression” plus Hormuz sovereignty recognition. If no deal materialises, the market must reprice the resumption of strikes — targeting 177,194 (lower Bollinger). Any breakthrough would be immediately bullish for banks and cyclicals.
Gol’s shares and warrants trade for the last time today. The incorporation into GLA is effective April 1. Rede D’Or goes ex-JCP today (R$350 million distribution, R$0.1591/share).
University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are the week’s final US macro release. Deteriorating confidence would support the recession narrative and could paradoxically help rate-sensitive Brazilian names if Fed cut expectations revive.
05Verdict
Thursday’s 1.45% decline was a reality check. The IPCA-15 miss confirmed that war-driven inflation is feeding through faster than the market priced, Lagarde’s warning amplified the global risk-off, and Iran’s rejection of the peace proposal pushed Brent back above $100 — all in a single session. The Ibovespa has given back Wednesday’s entire rally and now sits in the middle of its post-war range (176,219–185,424). The MACD bullish crossover fired but on a down day, requiring a green session Friday to confirm the signal. The five-day pause expires tomorrow — making Friday the most important session since the war began.
Bias: NEUTRAL — binary on Friday’s ceasefire deadline. A close above 183,831 (Tenkan-sen) with a confirmed MACD crossover upgrades to Cautiously Bullish. A break below 181,001 on pause expiry reinstates the bearish case and targets the 177,194 lower Bollinger.
Deep Dive
For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide