The Big Three

01Session Data

02Market Commentary

Gold moved mostly sideways on Thursday, consolidating after the previous session’s strong rally, with price action showing hesitation near the $5,200 level. The FXCM daily close at $5,191.65 (+0.15%) came after an intraday push to $5,200.60 that failed to hold. As FXDailyReport noted, the session looked more like “a pause rather than a reversal” — constructive price action as long as $5,000 holds as structural support.

The session’s dominant catalyst was JPMorgan’s Feb 25 research note, which reiterated its $6,300 year-end 2026 target and raised the long-term gold forecast by 15% to $4,500/oz. The bank projected 800 tonnes of central-bank buying in 2026 — lower than the 863 tonnes purchased in 2025 but still well above the pre-2022 average of 400–500 tonnes. JPMorgan framed this as a structural shift in reserve allocation rather than a cyclical phenomenon, noting that 76% of central banks surveyed expect gold to form a larger share of reserves within five years.

Silver stole the spotlight, surging 2.07% to $90.08 and leading the precious metals complex for the second day. The recovery from the historic Jan 29 ATH of $121.88 to the Feb 1 wipeout near $70 — triggered by CME margin hikes from 15% to 18% — has regained $20 per ounce in under three weeks. The gold/silver ratio has compressed dramatically from above 100:1 to approximately 58:1, reflecting a structural re-rating driven by post-Lunar New Year Chinese physical buying, the Supreme Court’s IEEPA tariff ruling on Feb 20, and persistent industrial demand from AI data centers, EVs, and solar.

Dollar weakness provided a tailwind for metals, with the DXY slipping on yuan strength after the Chinese currency rallied to a 2.75-year high. The US 10Y yield drifted lower to 4.01%, compressing real yields further. Geopolitically, the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva kept the risk premium embedded in precious metals pricing. An absence of concrete progress would likely reinforce the safe-haven bid, while a breakthrough deal could temporarily unwind the geopolitical premium.

03Technical Analysis

Gold — Daily (1D):

Gold remains firmly above the Ichimoku cloud, with the cloud base at $5,013 and cloud top at $5,045 providing structural support. The 200-SMA at $3,958 is 31.2% below current price, confirming the secular uptrend remains intact. The Bollinger Bands show price near the upper band at $5,290, with the midline at $5,022 serving as the key mean-reversion target on any pullback. MACD lines at 103.19 / 99.56 are positive but converging, with the histogram at +3.63 — notably thin, suggesting momentum is coasting rather than accelerating. RSI reads 59.14 / 56.34, comfortably in neutral-bullish territory with room to run before overbought. The key level is $5,240 (the recent local high); a daily close above that opens the path toward $5,342 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) and ultimately the $5,598 ATH.

Silver — Daily (1D):

Silver’s chart is more dynamic. Price at $90.08 sits just above the Ichimoku cloud (spanning approximately $84–$87), having reclaimed the cloud on the Feb 25–26 rally. The 200-SMA at $53.73 is an extraordinary 67.6% below spot, reflecting the metal’s parabolic move over the past year. MACD lines at 1.030 / 0.702 are positive but the histogram at −0.329 is slightly negative — a cautionary signal that the bullish crossover needs follow-through. RSI at 55.55 / 49.06 is neutral, well below overbought territory. Key resistance sits at $91.27 (3-week high touched intraday), then $92.83 and the psychologically important $95 zone. Support runs through the Ichimoku cloud at $84–$87 and the structural floor at $70.50.

04Forward Look

US-Iran Geneva Talks.

The third round of nuclear negotiations is the week’s dominant geopolitical risk. Failure to produce concrete progress keeps the military escalation premium intact and supports gold. A breakthrough deal would temporarily compress the geopolitical bid, but structural demand from central banks would likely cushion any selloff.

US Jobless Claims and Fed Commentary.

Thursday’s initial claims data and scheduled Fed speakers will shape rate-cut expectations. St. Louis Fed President Musalem’s comment that the “fed funds rate is near neutral” supports the dovish case, which compresses real yields and lifts non-yielding gold. Three rate cuts are increasingly priced for 2026.

Silver Supply Deficit and Industrial Demand.

The Silver Institute’s 2026 forecast projects the sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, with mine production capped at 1.05 billion ounces since most silver is a byproduct of zinc and copper mining. Demand from AI data centers, EVs, and solar continues to absorb supply, even as high prices trigger some substitution in the solar sector.

Section 122 Tariff Review Clock.

Trump’s Section 122 counter-tariffs at 10% — imposed after the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs — are set for review in approximately 150 days. The uncertainty window keeps the trade-war premium embedded in precious metals and supports safe-haven flows into both gold and silver.

Verdict

The precious metals complex remains in a structural bull market with JPMorgan’s $6,300 call and 15% long-term anchor revision serving as the week’s clearest institutional signal. The fact that gold consolidated above $5,166 — never seriously threatening the $5,000 floor — after a sideways session is constructive. The $5,200 level is the immediate gate; a daily close above $5,240 (the recent local high) would open the path toward $5,342 and eventually the $5,589 ATH.

Silver’s story is more dramatic and arguably more compelling. The recovery from $70 to $90 has been built on structural foundations — Chinese physical buying, a six-year supply deficit, and AI/EV/solar industrial demand — rather than the leveraged speculation that drove the $121.88 ATH. The gold/silver ratio compressing from 100:1 to 58:1 represents a massive re-rating of silver’s fair value relative to gold. If this trend persists, silver’s next target is $95 and then a retest of $100.

The risk is complacency. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned that gold and silver may be more vulnerable than investors assume, arguing that much of the current demand is momentum-driven. If the US-Iran talks produce a surprise breakthrough or the Fed delivers unexpectedly hawkish commentary, the geopolitical and rate-cut premiums could unwind simultaneously. But the structural backstop — central bank buying at 800 tonnes/year and a silver market in deficit — limits the downside far more than in prior cycles.

Bias: BULLISH · gold: consolidation above $5,000 is base-building · silver: structural deficit and ratio compression favor outperformance · watch $5,240 gold break and $91.27 silver reclaim