Gold · Silver · Precious Metals · Daily Report
Gold reversed a 1.9% intraday decline to reclaim $5,177 (+1.53%) as Trump’s Iran war-end signal transformed the session from a safe-haven liquidation into a risk-on rebound — the precious metal’s wildest Monday since the war began on February 28. The session followed a brutal pattern: gold spiked above $5,400 on the initial Hormuz closure fears, then crashed to $5,081 as the DXY rallied and margin calls forced liquidation of profitable gold positions to cover equity losses. Trump’s “practically concluded” comment reversed the dollar rally and pushed gold back above $5,100 into the close. The March 10 session has extended the recovery to $5,180, approaching the $5,207 resistance.
Silver surged 6.59% to $89.06 — dramatically outperforming gold — compressing the gold/silver ratio from ~61.3 to 58.1 in a single session and signaling that leveraged capital is returning to the white metal after the January 30 crash. Silver’s volatility continues to dwarf gold’s: the 24-hour range of $82.85–$90.00 represents a 8.6% span, compared with gold’s ~2.5% range. The chart shows silver reclaiming the Ichimoku Kijun-sen at $87.15 and testing the $89.16 cloud zone. Silver remains 27% below its January 29 all-time high of $121.88, versus gold’s 7.5% deficit from its $5,595 ATH — but the pace of recovery is accelerating.
The Iran war is the dominant variable: gold spiked to $5,400 when Hormuz closed, crashed to $5,018 on margin calls and rate-cut repricing, and is now recovering as Trump signals resolution — demonstrating that precious metals are trading on the war premium, not on structural fundamentals. The Fed rate-cut timeline has been repriced dramatically: markets now price just one 25bp cut in September (80% probability), down from multiple cuts expected before the conflict. U.S. February CPI lands Wednesday and will determine whether the oil-driven inflation spike is durable or transitory. A soft print would reignite the rate-cut narrative that powered gold to $5,595 in January; a hot print would cap the recovery.
01
Session Data
| Metric | Value | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $5,177 | +1.53% |
| Gold Session High | $5,183 | — |
| Gold Session Low | $5,061 | — |
| Gold ATH (Jan 29) | ~$5,595 | −7.5% from ATH |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | $89.06 | +6.59% |
| Silver Session High | $90.00 | — |
| Silver Session Low | $82.85 | — |
| Silver ATH (Jan 29) | ~$121.88 | −26.9% from ATH |
| DXY (Dollar Index) | 99.20 | +0.21% |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 58.1x | −4.7% |
| Brent Crude | $98.96 | +6.76% |
| S&P 500 | 6,795.99 | +0.83% |
02
Market Commentary
Monday’s precious metals session was defined by the paradox that has characterized the Iran war era: gold initially surged on the geopolitical shock, then sold off as the macro consequences of that very shock — a stronger dollar, higher rates, and margin calls — overwhelmed safe-haven flows. Gold opened above $5,100 and briefly spiked toward the $5,400 area as Brent crude topped $119 and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed. But the rally reversed violently as the DXY strengthened, 10-year Treasury yields pushed above 4%, and forced liquidation of profitable gold positions to cover equity margin calls sent spot gold crashing to $5,081 — down 1.9% on the day at one point.
The reversal came when Trump told CBS News the war is “practically concluded.” Gold reclaimed $5,100 into the close and the March 10 session has extended the recovery to $5,180, approaching the $5,207 resistance level visible on the daily chart. The week ended as gold’s worst weekly performance of 2026 — a 2.5% decline that snapped a four-week winning streak — with forex.com’s Michael Boutros noting that the intraday high of $5,419 failed to produce a daily close above resistance, leaving the broader rally at an inflection point.
Silver dramatically outperformed gold on the session, surging 6.59% to $89.06 against gold’s 1.53% gain. The 24-hour range of $82.85–$90.00 represents an 8.6% span — extraordinary by any measure but routine for silver in the current regime. The gold/silver ratio compressed from ~61.3 to 58.1, its sharpest single-session tightening since early February. USAGOLD noted that at 61.3, silver remains historically undervalued relative to gold and may have room to outperform if industrial and investment demand accelerate together. Silver’s industrial demand thesis — AI chip fabrication, photovoltaic cells, EV components — remains structurally intact.
The macro backdrop is the key tension. The Fed rate-cut timeline has been dramatically repriced: markets now assign an 80% probability to just one 25bp cut in September, down from multiple cuts expected before the war. The U.S. 10-year yield back above 4% and the DXY at 99.20 represent headwinds for non-yielding gold. But the structural supports remain formidable: central bank demand continues with the PBoC extending purchases for a 15th consecutive month in January, the U.S. labor market delivered an unexpected −92,000 payroll miss on Friday, and the stagflation signal from weak jobs combined with rising oil prices creates the exact macro cocktail that has historically powered gold to new highs.
03
Technical Analysis
Gold (TradingView, Mar 10 08:09 UTC):
Gold is trading at $5,180 after opening the session at $5,139, with an intraday range of $5,117–$5,186. The Ichimoku cloud remains bullish: price trades above the cloud with the Senkou Span area at approximately $4,935–$5,037, well below spot. The Kijun-sen at $5,104.94 has been reclaimed, and the Tenkan-sen sits near $5,175.65 — price is testing this level for a sustained break above. The 200-day SMA at $4,023.46 is 22% below spot, confirming the secular uptrend remains firmly intact. The MACD shows the signal line at 89.41 with the MACD line at 75.61, producing a histogram of −13.81 — still negative but significantly compressed from the post-crash readings, suggesting the correction is losing momentum. RSI at 56.85/55.47 has recovered from neutral territory to a mildly bullish zone. Key resistance at $5,207 (prior swing high) and $5,327 (upper Bollinger/pre-crash zone); support at $5,104 (Kijun) and $4,883 (recent swing low).
Silver (TradingView, Mar 10 08:09 UTC):
Silver is trading at $89.16 after surging from an $86.08 low, printing a bullish engulfing candle that has reclaimed the Kijun-sen area at $87.15 and is testing the Ichimoku cloud zone around $89.16–$92.83. The MACD has turned constructive: the histogram is positive at +0.638, with the signal at 0.330 and the MACD line at 0.308 — the lines are converging toward a potential bullish crossover. RSI at 54.34/51.97 has crossed above the 50 neutral line for the first time since late February. The 200-day SMA at $55.58 sits 37% below spot, confirming the long-term uptrend. Key resistance at $92.83 (upper Bollinger/cloud top) and $94.50 (prior consolidation); support at $86.25 (Tenkan-sen area) and $83.56 (chart level). A sustained close above $89.16 and then the $92.83 cloud top would confirm silver is re-entering its bullish structure.
| Level | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | $5,327 | Upper Bollinger / pre-crash zone |
| Resistance 2 | $5,207 | Prior swing high (chart) |
| Resistance 1 | $5,176 | Tenkan-sen / current test level |
| Spot | $5,177 | Current (perpetuals) |
| Support 1 | $5,105 | Kijun-sen (daily) |
| Support 2 | $5,037 | Senkou Span area (cloud floor) |
| Support 3 | $4,883 | Recent swing low |
| Level | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | $94.50 | Prior consolidation zone |
| Resistance 2 | $92.83 | Upper Bollinger Band / cloud top |
| Resistance 1 | $89.16 | Ichimoku cloud zone (current test) |
| Spot | $89.06 | Current (perpetuals) |
| Support 1 | $86.25 | Tenkan-sen area |
| Support 2 | $83.56 | Chart level / prior support |
| Support 3 | $80.20 | 200-period area / structural support |
04
Forward Look
U.S. CPI Tuesday → Gold’s Inflection Point
February CPI is the most important near-term catalyst for precious metals. A soft print would revive multi-cut rate expectations and push gold toward $5,327 (pre-crash resistance). A hot print combined with oil above $90 would reinforce the “one cut in September” repricing and cap gold below $5,200 while pressuring silver more aggressively given its higher beta. The consensus expects 0.3% m/m headline and 0.3% core.
Iran War Endgame → War Premium Unwind
If Hormuz reopens this week, gold could paradoxically rally as the rate-cut repricing reverses: oil dropping to $80–85 would reduce inflation expectations and bring forward the Fed easing timeline. Conversely, a prolonged conflict keeps rates higher for longer but sustains safe-haven demand — a two-way push that may keep gold range-bound between $5,000 and $5,400 until resolution. Silver would likely outperform gold on the downside of oil, as industrial demand recovery would benefit the white metal more than a pure safe-haven play.
FOMC March 17–18 → Dot Plot Guidance
The Fed meets next week with rates at 3.50–3.75% and markets pricing just one cut in September. The updated dot plot and economic projections will signal whether the committee views the oil spike as transitory or as requiring a hawkish recalibration. Dovish guidance would be explosive for gold; a hawkish hold with elevated inflation projections could push gold below $5,000 and silver toward $80.
Central Bank Demand → Structural Floor
The PBoC has extended gold purchases for 15 consecutive months, and global central bank demand surpassed 5,000 metric tons in 2025 for the first time in history. This structural bid provides a floor under gold regardless of rate expectations. For silver, industrial demand from AI semiconductors, solar panels, and EVs continues to tighten supply, but the speculative froth that drove the metal to $121 has been purged — meaning any recovery will be more gradual and fundamentally grounded than the January blow-off top.
Gold’s structural bull survives the war-driven volatility — but the rate-cut repricing caps the near-term upside until CPI clarity arrives.
Gold at $5,177 trades above its Ichimoku cloud, with the 200-day SMA at $4,023 confirming the secular uptrend, and RSI at 57 in a healthy zone. The MACD histogram at −13.81 is still negative but sharply compressed, suggesting the correction from the $5,595 ATH is losing momentum. The key question is whether the $5,207 resistance can be cleared: if so, $5,327 is the next target; if not, the $5,037–$5,105 support zone will be tested. Central bank demand (PBoC at 15 months) and the stagflation signal from −92K payrolls combined with oil above $90 provide structural support.
Silver’s 6.59% surge to $89.06 dramatically outperformed gold and compressed the ratio to 58.1x. The white metal is testing its Ichimoku cloud zone ($89–$93) with a positive MACD histogram and RSI crossing above 50 — the most constructive technical setup since mid-February. The industrial demand thesis (AI, solar, EVs) provides a fundamental floor, but silver remains 27% below its $121.88 ATH and its higher volatility means the recovery will be nonlinear. A sustained close above $92.83 would confirm the bullish re-entry.
Bias: Moderately Bullish Gold above the cloud with structural central bank demand. Neutral-to-Cautiously Bullish Silver — outperforming gold but needs to clear the $92.83 cloud top for confirmation.