Key Points
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- U.S. growth was strong in Q3 (GDP 4.4%), but inflation inside GDP also ran hotter and oil stocks rose again.
- Europe’s consumer mood improved and UK retail conditions stabilized, but fiscal math stayed tight.
- Latin America and Asia showed mixed resilience: Brazil’s tax haul jumped, Mexico’s core inflation rose, and Japan’s inflation cooled as the BoJ held.
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United States
\nThe data were dense and pointed in two directions at once. Q3 GDP was revised to 4.4% q/q, with real consumer spending at 3.5% and corporate profits up 4.7% q/q. That is solid demand and solid margins.
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\nThe price side was also firm. The GDP price index was 3.7% and core PCE for Q3 was 2.9%. Monthly PCE stayed steady later in the day. Core PCE was 0.2% m/m in October and November, with y/y at 2.7% in October and 2.8% in November.
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\nPersonal spending rose 0.5% m/m in both October and November. Income was softer: 0.1% in October and 0.3% in November. Claims stayed low: initial 200k and continuing 1.849M, with the 4-week average down to 201.5k.
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\nEnergy did not help disinflation today. Crude inventories rose 3.602M and gasoline rose 5.977M. Cushing rose 1.478M. Refinery utilization fell 2.0%, which helps explain why product stocks built.
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\nTreasury bills inched higher (4- and 8-week at 3.630%). TIPS cleared at 1.940%. GDPNow held 5.4%. Net: growth is strong and inflation is manageable, but it is not falling fast.
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Europe and UK
\nEurozone confidence improved again to −12.4 from −13.2. That fits the recent pattern of sentiment recovering before hard activity. In the UK, public sector borrowing was −£11.58B, while the cash requirement rose to £16.91B.
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\nThe CBI distributive trades survey improved sharply to −17 from −44, and GfK confidence ticked up to −16. Read-through: households feel slightly less squeezed, but the state still runs a tight cash position.
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Canada
\nNew house prices fell 0.2% m/m, a small but steady cooling signal for shelter inflation.
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Asia-Pacific
\nJapan delivered a clearer disinflation signal. National CPI eased to 2.1% y/y and core CPI to 2.4% y/y, with negative monthly prints. PMIs improved: composite 52.8, manufacturing 51.5, services 53.4.
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\nThe BoJ held its policy rate at 0.75%. Korea’s consumer confidence improved to 110.8. Australia was the day’s growth surprise: the composite PMI jumped to 55.5, with services 56.0 and manufacturing 52.4, a sharp acceleration in private activity.
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Latin America and Africa
\nBrazil’s federal tax revenue jumped to R$292.72B ($54B), up from R$226.75B ($42B), improving near-term fiscal optics. Mexico’s first-half January inflation was firm in the core (0.43%); headline was 0.31%.
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\nColombia’s external gap narrowed as the trade deficit improved to −$1.55B and import growth slowed to 0.3% y/y. Argentina’s retail growth cooled to 21.2% y/y from 27.8%, still high but losing pace.
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What it means
\nThis was a “strong activity, slower disinflation” day for the U.S. Growth is running hot enough to keep the Fed cautious. Europe’s consumer mood is improving, but fiscal constraints remain a brake.
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\nAsia is splitting: Japan is cooling cleanly while Australia is re-accelerating. Latin America looks mixed: Brazil’s revenue surge helps credibility, but Mexico’s core inflation remains sticky. For positioning, quality duration still works, but do not assume quick rate cuts.
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\nPrefer service-heavy growth in the U.S. and Australia, exporters linked to stable demand, and in Latin America favor countries where fiscal discipline is improving and inflation is drifting down, not up.
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.
Related: Latin American Pulse | Brazil Morning Call