Global Economy Briefing: January 14, 2026

Key Points

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• U.S. consumers surprised on the upside: retail rose 0.6% and existing home sales jumped 5.1%.

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• Pipeline inflation was mixed: PPI softened on the month, but core measures stayed sticky; oil and gasoline stocks built.

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• Asia stayed stable: Korea’s trade surplus widened, Japan’s producer inflation cooled, and India’s WPI turned positive.

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United States

\nThe story was demand that refuses to fade. November retail sales rose 0.6% m/m, with core sales up 0.5% and the control group up 0.4%.
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\nThat is broad enough to matter for growth. Existing home sales rose to 4.35M in December, up 5.1% m/m.
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\nMortgage demand also jumped: applications rose 28.5% as the 30-year rate eased to 6.18%, with purchases up (index 184.6) and refis up (1,313.1).
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\nThe current-account deficit narrowed to $226.4B from $249.2B. Inflation looked calmer on the surface, but not clean. November PPI was 0.2% m/m and 3.0% y/y.
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\nCore PPI was flat m/m but 3.0% y/y. The ex-food/energy/transport measure stayed hot at 3.5% y/y. Business inventories rose 0.3%.
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\nEnergy did not help: crude inventories rose 3.391M and gasoline inventories rose 8.977M, with Cushing up 0.745M.
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\nDistillates were flat to slightly lower and heating oil fell 0.745M. GDPNow rose to 5.3%. Confidence improved (PCSI 53.81).
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\nNet: growth is strong, but costs are not fully tamed.
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Europe and UK

\nLong rates stayed high but showed mixed pressure. The UK sold 10-year gilts at 4.456% and Germany sold 30-year bunds at 3.450%, both important signals for financing conditions in 2026.
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\nPolicy speakers stayed active. The day’s macro message was “tight financial conditions, slow easing.”
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Canada

\nThe leading index rose 0.26% m/m again. Confidence improved (PCSI 49.28 from 46.43). This points to slow, steady growth rather than a break.
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Latin America

\nBrazil’s inflation stayed contained (headline still in the mid-4s), but services and confidence improved (PCSI 55.14).
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\nFX outflows continued at −$1.696B, smaller than the prior −$4.127B. The trade channel stayed supportive earlier in the month, but flows remain the near-term swing factor.
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\nMexico’s confidence eased slightly (PCSI 54.22 from 55.16). Argentina’s confidence improved (PCSI 48.61).
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Asia-Pacific

\nIndia’s WPI inflation turned positive at 0.83% y/y, with manufacturing inflation rising to 1.82% and food still slightly negative (−0.43%).
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\nJapan’s producer inflation cooled to 2.4% y/y with a 0.1% m/m rise; machine tool orders slowed to 10.6% y/y.
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\nKorea stayed strong: exports rose 13.3% y/y, imports 4.6% y/y, and the surplus widened to $12.17B.
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\nThe central bank held at 2.50%. Australia’s inflation expectations eased to 4.6% and reserves rose to A$113.9B.
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What it means

\nThis was a “strong demand, sticky costs” day for the U.S. That keeps the Fed in gradual mode even with falling headline inflation.
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\nEurope’s long yields remain a constraint, so growth will rely on services and external demand.
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\nKorea’s surplus and Japan’s cooler producer prices support the global goods cycle without reigniting inflation.
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\nIn LATAM, Brazil’s flows are the key risk despite better confidence. Tilt: keep quality duration but be selective.
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\nFavor U.S. services and housing-adjacent names; add to Asia exporters tied to Korea’s cycle; prefer MXN carry over BRL until Brazil’s outflows fade.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.

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