Today’s global economy briefing for February 26, 2026 covers Nvidia smashing Q4 estimates with $68.1 billion in revenue and a $78 billion Q1 guide that silenced AI bubble fears, eurozone CPI confirming at 1.7% — below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time in over a year — and US crude inventories surging 16 million barrels in the largest weekly build of 2026. Here’s what moved markets on Wednesday.
The Big Three
Economic Dashboard
| INDICATOR | ACT | EST | PREV | VERDICT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI YoY (Jan, final) | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | ● In-line |
| Core CPI YoY (Jan, final) | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | ● In-line |
| GDP QoQ (Q4, final) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | ● In-line |
| GfK Consumer Climate (Mar) | −24.7 | −23.0 | −24.2 | ▼ Miss |
| Consumer Confidence (Feb) | 91 | 90 | 90 | ▲ Beat |
| BoJ Core CPI YoY | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | ▲ Cooler |
| Crude Oil Inventories | +16.0M | +1.8M | −9.0M | ▼ Massive build |
| 5-Year Note Auction | 3.615% | — | 3.823% | ▲ Strong demand |
| MBA Mortgage Rate (30Y) | 6.09% | — | 6.17% | ▲ Decline |
| PPI YoY (Jan) | −2.9% | — | −3.0% | ● Steady |
| BoK Rate Decision (Feb) | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | ● Hold |
| Private CapEx QoQ (Q4) | 0.4% | −0.1% | 6.4% | ▲ Beat |
| Current Account (Q4) | $7,702M | $11,520M | $1,556M | ▼ Miss |
| Consumer Confidence (Feb) | 86.1 | — | 87.3 | ▼ Decline |
| Retail Sales YoY (Dec) | 25.5% | — | 21.2% | ▲ Acceleration |
Europe
Disinflation confirmed, but German consumers stay gloomy
Eurozone CPI was confirmed at 1.7% YoY in January — below the ECB’s 2% target and the lowest since September 2024. Core inflation eased to 2.2%, while energy prices plunged 4.1%. Services inflation moderated to 3.2% from 3.4%. The data was in line with the flash estimate and reinforces the disinflation narrative, though the ECB is expected to stay on hold with markets pricing only a 20% chance of a cut by year-end.
German GDP was confirmed at 0.3% QoQ in Q4, ending the flatline of Q3. But the GfK consumer climate for March deteriorated to −24.7 from −24.2, missing the −23.0 estimate. German consumers remain deeply pessimistic despite the Ifo business recovery, highlighting a disconnect between corporate and household sentiment.
French consumer confidence edged up to 91 in February from 90, a marginal beat of the 90 estimate — a rare bright spot after Tuesday’s grim INSEE business survey. Spanish PPI improved slightly to −2.9% YoY from −3.0%, still deeply deflationary. European equities were steady, with the Stoxx 600 modestly higher as the tariff “TACO” trade continued to play out.
Verdict
Neutral. Inflation is no longer the problem — it’s below target. The question now is whether the ECB pivots to growth support. German GDP confirmed a modest recovery but GfK shows consumers haven’t noticed. The French confidence uptick is encouraging but fragile.
United States
Nvidia validates the AI thesis as crude builds shock
Nvidia reported after the bell and demolished estimates. Q4 revenue hit $68.1 billion — up 73% YoY and $2 billion above consensus — with data center sales of $62.3 billion driving the beat. Adjusted EPS of $1.62 topped the $1.53 estimate. Net income nearly doubled to $43 billion. The Q1 guide of $78 billion (±2%) was the show-stopper, with supply commitments nearly doubling from $50.3 billion to $95.2 billion quarter-over-quarter.
During the regular session, equities extended their rally for a second straight day. The S&P 500 gained 0.81% to 6,946, the Nasdaq surged 1.26% to 23,152, and the Dow added 308 points to 49,482. Software stocks continued their recovery from Monday’s AI panic, with Microsoft +3%, Palantir +4.2%, and Oracle gaining on a bullish upgrade. Trump’s State of the Union Tuesday night focused on domestic policy — retirement, housing, and the 250th anniversary — offering no new tariff escalation.
The energy complex told a different story. EIA data showed crude inventories surging 16.0 million barrels against a 1.8 million estimate — the largest build of the year. Refinery utilization dropped 2.4 percentage points as maintenance weighed. Cushing stocks rose 0.9 million barrels. Despite the bearish build, WTI held near $66 as Iran tensions kept a geopolitical floor under prices.
Bond markets reflected strong demand: the 5-year auction cleared at 3.615% versus 3.823% prior, following Tuesday’s strong 2-year result at 3.455%. Mortgage rates fell to 6.09% from 6.17%, the lowest since late 2025, though purchase applications declined 4.7% to 149.7. Refinance activity improved, with the index rising to 1,432.9 from 1,375.9.
Verdict
Bullish for tech, cautious for energy. Nvidia’s Q1 guide resolves the AI credibility question for this cycle — the spend is real and accelerating. The crude build is bearish for oil near-term but driven by refinery maintenance, not demand destruction. Bond demand remains strong, supporting the rate-cut pricing path.
Asia-Pacific
BoJ inflation cools, Korea holds, Australia capex beats
The Bank of Japan’s preferred core CPI gauge fell to 1.7% from 1.9%, undershooting the 1.8% estimate. The deceleration reduces pressure on the BoJ to tighten further and supports the dovish wing of the board. Governor Ueda has signaled patience, and this print reinforces the case for holding rates at the current level through at least mid-year.
The Bank of Korea held its base rate at 2.50% as unanimously expected, maintaining its cautious stance amid the global tariff reset. Korea’s Kospi has surged over 2% this week as APAC markets digest the Section 122 tariff landing at 10% rather than the feared 15%. The won has been stable against the dollar.
Australia’s private capital expenditure rose 0.4% QoQ in Q4, beating the −0.1% estimate and suggesting business investment is holding up despite Tuesday’s weak construction data. Building capex gained 2.3% but plant and machinery investment fell 1.7%, signaling a rotation toward structures over equipment. RBA Governor Bullock spoke but offered no new policy signals.
Verdict
Mildly dovish. The BoJ CPI miss reduces tightening pressure, the BoK hold was expected, and Australia’s capex beat partially offsets the construction miss. Nvidia’s after-hours beat will drive APAC tech sentiment at Thursday’s open — Nikkei and TSMC-heavy indices should benefit.
Latin America & Africa
Mexico current account misses, Argentina retail surges
Mexico’s Q4 current account surplus came in at $7.7 billion — a healthy surplus but below the $11.5 billion estimate. This still marks a massive improvement from Q3’s $1.6 billion and reflects continued remittance strength and CUSMA-shielded trade flows. The miss suggests some tariff-related trade front-loading had already faded by late Q4.
Brazil’s consumer confidence slipped to 86.1 from 87.3, and bank lending contracted 0.2% MoM in January versus the prior 1.8% growth — a sharp reversal that signals tightening credit conditions. The data adds to Tuesday’s current account blow-out narrative and suggests the BCB‘s rate tightening cycle is biting domestic demand.
Argentina’s December retail sales accelerated to 25.5% YoY from 21.2%, building on yesterday’s stunning GDP proxy surprise of 3.5% YoY. The data confirms a genuine consumption recovery under Milei’s reform program, even as high base effects from 2024’s collapse inflate the headline numbers. The Merval has been one of the best-performing equity markets globally in 2026.
Verdict
Mixed. Mexico’s current account surplus is welcome but below expectations. Brazil’s credit contraction and confidence decline are worrying as the BCB squeezes. Argentina remains the region’s outperformer with back-to-back data beats confirming the recovery is broadening beyond statistical base effects.
Trades & Tilts