Today’s global economy briefing for February 12, 2026 covers the delayed January jobs report that blew past expectations at 130K, a historic 898K downward benchmark revision to 2025 payrolls, and Italy’s industrial sector showing early signs of stabilisation. Here’s what moved markets on Wednesday.
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\nJanuary NFP crushed expectations at +130K vs. 55K–70K consensus. However, the 2025 annual benchmark slashed 898K jobs from prior counts — average monthly gains last year were just 15K, not 49K.
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\nMarkets opened hot then faded — the Dow gave back a 300-point gain to close down 67 points at 50,121. The S&P 500 went flat at 6,941. Stronger jobs data pushed Fed rate-cut odds lower, with March now at just 8% probability.
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\nCrude oil inventories surged +8.5M barrels vs. a −0.2M draw expected — the largest build in months. WTI remains under pressure as the EIA forecasts Brent averaging just $58/b in 2026.
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| INDICATOR | ACT | EST | PREV | VERDICT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) | 130K | 66K | 48K | BLOWOUT |
| US Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | BEAT |
| US Avg Hourly Earnings MoM (Jan) | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | HOT |
| US Private Payrolls (Jan) | 172K | 70K | 64K | BLOWOUT |
| US Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan) | 5K | −5K | −8K | BEAT |
| US Gov’t Payrolls (Jan) | −42K | — | −16K | DOGE CUTS |
| US Payrolls Benchmark Revision | −898K | — | −911K | IN LINE |
| Crude Oil Inventories | +8.53M | −0.20M | −3.46M | SURGE |
| US 10-Yr Note Auction | 4.177% | — | 4.173% | STEADY |
| US Federal Budget (Jan) | −$95.0B | −$94.6B | −$145.0B | IN LINE |
| Italy Industrial Output YoY (Dec) | 3.2% | — | 1.4% | BEAT |
| Italy Industrial Output MoM (Dec) | −0.4% | −0.6% | 1.5% | BEAT |
| Portugal CPI YoY (Jan) | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | AS EXPECTED |
| German 30-Yr Bund Auction | 3.470% | — | 3.490% | STEADY |
| Mexico Industrial Output YoY (Dec) | 2.4% | 1.3% | −0.7% | BLOWOUT |
| India M3 Money Supply | 12.0% | — | 10.7% | ACCELERATING |
| Japan PPI YoY (Jan) | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | AS EXPECTED |
| Australia MI Inflation Exp. (Feb) | 5.0% | — | 4.6% | SPIKE |
| Canada Building Permits MoM (Dec) | 6.8% | 4.9% | −13.2% | BEAT |
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United States
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Jobs surge masks a 2025 that never was
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The delayed January nonfarm payrolls report delivered a headline beat: +130K jobs vs. 55K–70K consensus. Healthcare drove the gains at +82K, followed by social assistance at +42K and construction at +33K. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, and private payrolls surged to 172K.
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.
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However, the story beneath the headline is murkier. The annual benchmark revision slashed 898K jobs from the April 2024–March 2025 period. Average monthly gains in 2025 were just 15K — not 49K as previously reported. November and December were both revised lower by a combined 17K.
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Wage pressures resurfaced. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% MoM, above the 0.3% consensus, holding at 3.7% YoY. Meanwhile, average weekly hours climbed to 34.3 from 34.2, a positive productivity signal. Federal government payrolls fell 42K as DOGE-related deferred resignations hit the count — federal employment is now down 327K, or 10.9%, from its October 2024 peak.
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Markets initially rallied hard on the print — the Dow jumped 300 points at the open — but enthusiasm faded as traders repriced Fed expectations. The Dow closed down 67 at 50,121 and the S&P 500 barely moved at 6,941. Rate-cut odds for March fell to 8%, with the first cut now not expected until June. The 10-year auction cleared at 4.177%, essentially flat with prior. As a result, the January budget deficit of $95B landed in line with estimates.
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\nVerdict
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Good headline, complicated backstory. The January rebound is real — best month since December 2024 — but the 898K benchmark revision confirms 2025 was far weaker than markets priced. The hot wage print and fading rate-cut odds are the near-term pain point.
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Europe
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Italy stabilises, Portugal disinflation holds
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ISTAT reported Italian industrial production fell −0.4% MoM in December, better than the −0.6% expected. On a yearly basis, output jumped 3.2%, accelerating from 1.4% in November. Pharmaceuticals surged nearly 24% YoY, and transport equipment rebounded 35% off a weak base.
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Nevertheless, Q4 as a whole showed a 0.9% quarterly gain — the best since 2022 — supporting the 0.3% GDP expansion. ING sees the long-lasting manufacturing recession nearing an end, though the statistical carryover into 2026 sits at just 0.7%. A stronger rebound depends on Germany’s infrastructure spending hitting the ground.
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Meanwhile, Portuguese CPI cooled to 1.9% YoY in January from 2.2%, bang on consensus. The MoM print came in at −0.7%, also as expected. Disinflation is proceeding smoothly in the periphery, giving the ECB more room. ECB board member Schnabel spoke on Wednesday but offered no policy surprises.
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In the bond market, Germany auctioned 30-year Bunds at 3.470%, marginally below the prior 3.490%. Italian 12-month BOT yields fell to 2.068% from 2.112%. In addition, euro-area sovereign borrowing costs continue to drift lower across the curve.
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\nVerdict
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Italy is transitioning from recession to tentative recovery. The Q4 quarterly gain is encouraging, but full-year 2025 still closed −0.2%. Portugal’s disinflation is textbook. The big variable remains German fiscal expansion timing.
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Asia-Pacific
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Japan PPI steady, Australia inflation expectations spike
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Japan was closed for National Founding Day, but late-session data showed January PPI at 2.3% YoY, matching consensus and easing from 2.4% in December. The MoM print was 0.2%, also in line. Producer price pressures are moderating gradually, keeping the BOJ’s rate-hike timeline measured.
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On the other hand, Australian inflation expectations jumped sharply. The Melbourne Institute survey for February came in at 5.0%, up from 4.6% — the highest reading in months. This complicates the RBA’s path as it weighs its next move. Elevated expectations make it harder to justify near-term easing.
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India’s M3 money supply accelerated to 12.0% from 10.7%, signalling that the RBI‘s recent rate cut is flowing through into broader liquidity conditions. Credit transmission appears healthy. Combined with strong GDP growth, monetary loosening has room to support activity without fuelling inflation.
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\nVerdict
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Japan is on autopilot — PPI fading gently, BOJ patience intact. Australia’s inflation expectation spike is the standout risk. India remains the cleanest EM macro story with liquidity expanding post-rate cut.
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Latin America
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Mexico industrial output surprises, Brazil sentiment fades
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Mexican industrial production posted a surprise comeback: +2.4% YoY in December vs. 1.3% expected and −0.7% prior. The MoM reading also beat at +0.2% vs. −0.2% consensus. After seven consecutive months of annual declines through October, the data suggests nearshoring-driven activity may finally be gaining traction.
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Furthermore, the swing from −0.7% to +2.4% on the annual reading marks the sharpest improvement in months. Construction and manufacturing both contributed. Banxico’s easing cycle — now at 7.0% — appears to be finding its footing in real activity, though tariff headwinds from Washington remain a persistent risk.
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By contrast, Brazilian sentiment weakened. The Thomson Reuters IPSOS consumer confidence index dropped to 52.68 in February from 55.14, and the PPI reading showed a modest +0.12% MoM in December. Foreign exchange flows swung to −$0.29B from +$4.18B prior, a sharp reversal signalling capital outflows.
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Across the region, Argentina’s consumer sentiment slid to 44.70 from 48.61, and Mexico‘s own PCSI fell to 53.27 from 54.22. Consequently, consumer confidence is softening broadly in LatAm despite the encouraging hard data from Mexico’s industrial sector.
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\nVerdict
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Mexico’s industrial rebound is the clear positive — hard data outpacing soft data for the first time in months. Brazil’s capital outflow reversal and fading confidence are warning signs. LatAm remains a two-speed story.
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Related: Latin American Pulse | Brazil Morning Call