Dollar Retreat Eases Pressure on Colombian Peso and Stocks as Fed Moves Awaited

The Colombian peso gained ground against the US dollar on September 15, 2025. As the trading day began, one dollar bought 3,905 pesos, slightly stronger for the peso compared to recent sessions.

This shift came as the US dollar index slipped below 97.25, with global investors awaiting decisions from the Federal Reserve’s meeting about possible interest rate cuts.

Charts from the last 24 hours showed a clear trend: the peso broke under a key resistance level, helped by weak US inflation data and cautious trading ahead of the Fed.

The Relative Strength Index dropped into oversold territory at 29, which suggests the peso has potential for even more gains. The MACD indicator reinforced this, signaling persistent downward momentum for dollar strength against the peso.

The main moving averages, such as the 20-day SMA, sit higher than the current price, pointing to a market that expects the dollar to remain under pressure in the near term.

In Colombia’s stock market, the COLCAP index closed at 1,847 points, delivering a modest gain over the last day and outpacing much of Latin America this year.

The market’s winners included Grupo Nutresa, up over 9% after fresh merger activity speculation, and Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, with a 2% rise.

On the losing side, Celsia and Grupo Energía Bogotá saw slight declines, partly due to sector-specific challenges and mild profit-taking. Official volumes in currency trading remained muted as traders waited for the Fed’s move.

The bid-ask spread on USD/COP narrowed, signaling a calmer market than the volatile swings seen through August. Colombia’s central bank, BanRep, left its benchmark interest rate at 9.25%, citing stubbornly high inflation above 5%.

Investors read this as a signal that tight monetary conditions will persist. Commodities played their part. Coffee prices fell—a negative for exports—while gold prices stabilized, reflecting broader investor caution.

Colombian equity ETFs saw no significant in- or outflows, with foreign investors holding back until the interest rate picture clears.

For now, local markets closely watch the Federal Reserve. If rates fall further in the US, the peso may strengthen and boost Colombian stocks longer-term. Yet risks remain: if inflation proves harder to tame or exporters lose ground, local assets could feel new pressure.

As the week unfolds, attention remains fixed on Washington’s next move, and how global liquidity trends—the “yellow line” on the technical charts—will impact Colombia’s careful balancing act.

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