The COLCAP dipped just 0.56% to 2,382.41 on Wednesday, a notable stabilization after Tuesday’s brutal 2.95% selloff that erased COP $2.3 trillion in market capitalization. Ecopetrol led the partial recovery with a 1.73% gain to COP 2,310, while Cibest shares stabilized after their 8% plunge on Tuesday tied to the Grupo Sura restructuring.
The peso weakened modestly as the SPOT rate closed at COP 3,686.94 after touching an intraday high of COP 3,717.75 — the strongest dollar level since January 13. The TRM for February 26 was fixed at COP 3,703.69, up just COP 0.41 from the day before, as markets digested the new 10% global tariff that took effect on February 24.
Wall Street rallied for a second straight session — S&P 500 +0.81% to 6,946, Dow +0.63% to 49,482 — as software stocks bounced back from AI-disruption fears and Nvidia climbed 1.4% ahead of its earnings report. Brent crude held above $69/bbl on US-Iran tensions, providing a tailwind for Ecopetrol heading into its March 4 earnings.
Market Snapshot
| INDICATOR | VALUE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| COLCAP Close | 2,382.41 | −0.56% |
| COLCAP Weekly | 2,382.41 | −1.46% |
| COLCAP YTD | — | +15.2% |
| ATH (Jan 27) | 2,562.00 | −7.01% |
| TRM (Feb 25) | $3,703.28 | +0.16% |
| TRM (Feb 26) | $3,703.69 | +0.01% |
| SPOT Close | $3,686.94 | Range: 3,684–3,717 |
| Peso YTD vs USD | — | −9.95% YoY |
| BanRep Rate | 10.25% | +100 bps (Jan 30) |
| WTI Crude | $66.00/bbl | +0.5% |
| Brent Crude | $69.30/bbl | +0.7% |
| Gold | $5,186/oz | +0.2% |
| DXY | 97.82 | +0.18% |
| S&P 500 | 6,946.13 | +0.81% |
| Coffee (C May) | $284.25/lb | +2.23% |
Equities & Corporate
Wednesday’s session was a study in damage control. After Tuesday’s 2.95% massacre — the worst single session in months — the COLCAP opened at 2,393.33, briefly pushed to an intraday high of 2,401.59, then retreated to a low of 2,352.61 before settling at 2,382.41. The 0.56% decline was comparatively gentle, suggesting that forced selling from Tuesday’s Cibest restructuring shock had largely exhausted itself.
Ecopetrol was the standout performer, rising 1.73% to COP 2,310, buoyed by Brent crude holding above $69/bbl amid lingering US-Iran tensions. The stock is now up 6.58% on the week and trades within striking distance of its 52-week high of COP 2,420. The company reports Q4 2025 earnings on March 4 — a major catalyst, with analysts expecting earnings per share of COP 43.05.
Cibest ordinary shares steadied after Tuesday’s 8% plunge, which had dragged the index disproportionately given the stock’s roughly 35% COLCAP weighting. PFCibest similarly found footing after shedding 5.65% the day before. ISA continued its strong 2026 showing, while PFGrupsura — Tuesday’s best performer at +2.95% — reflected ongoing rotation around the Sura-Cibest corporate restructuring. The COLCAP remains 7.01% below its all-time high of 2,562 set on January 27, but retains a solid 15.2% YTD gain.
Currency & Monetary Policy
The peso faced its third consecutive session of pressure, with the SPOT rate opening at COP 3,698.25 and spiking to COP 3,717.75 before closing at COP 3,686.94. The wide COP 33 intraday range reflected the market’s digestion of the new 10% global tariff that took effect on February 24, which impacts roughly 32.2% of Colombia’s export basket to the US — the rest is either confirmed or conditionally exempt, particularly coffee, crude oil, and gold under Annex II classifications.
The TRM for February 26 was fixed at COP 3,703.69, barely changed from the prior day’s COP 3,703.28. Despite the recent weakening, the peso remains 9.95% stronger year-over-year against the dollar, benefiting structurally from BanRep’s hawkish pivot. The 100-basis-point hike on January 30 to 10.25% — with a 4-2-1 board split — delivered a carry advantage of 650 bps over the Fed’s 3.50–3.75% range, the widest in the region.
Inflation expectations remain the central concern: the January 2026 analyst median jumped to 6.4% for year-end 2026, far above the 3% target, which was the primary justification for the hawkish surprise hike. BanRep’s Monetary Policy Report explicitly stated that inflation is expected to rise this year before returning to target by 2027. Finance Minister Germán Ávila publicly criticized the decision, calling it inconsistent with economic reality. The next BanRep meeting will be a closely watched event as the board navigates between fiscal expansion, rising inflation expectations, and the upcoming electoral cycle.
Technical Analysis — MSCI COLCAP Daily
The daily chart shows the COLCAP attempting to stabilize just above the lower Ichimoku cloud boundary near 2,370. The index closed at 2,382.41 — below the Tenkan-sen (2,393) and the Kijun-sen (2,390) but still within the cloud. The 200-day SMA at 1,940 remains well below, confirming the broader uptrend is intact despite the near-term correction.
The RSI at 54.25 / 51.57 sits neutral territory, neither oversold nor overbought, giving bulls room to absorb without triggering panic. The MACD, however, flashed its first clear bearish signal: the signal line (22.15) has crossed below the MACD line (28.70), producing a negative histogram reading of −6.55. This crossover, combined with the sharp rejection from the 2,470+ zone, suggests momentum is shifting toward the bears in the near term.
Price is consolidating between the middle Bollinger Band and the cluster of EMAs near 2,303–2,307. A break below the Ichimoku cloud base around 2,300 would open the door to a test of the 2,291 support (the 100-day SMA area). Conversely, reclaiming 2,393–2,400 would signal the selloff is complete and set up a re-test of the 2,470 resistance zone.
Key Levels
| LEVEL | PRICE | REFERENCE |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 2,562.00 | All-Time High (Jan 27) |
| Resistance 2 | 2,480.00 | Valora Analitik resistance |
| Resistance 1 | 2,393.00 | Tenkan-sen / Session high |
| Current Close | 2,382.41 | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 2,352.00 | Session low / Cloud base |
| Support 2 | 2,300.00 | Valora Analitik support / Psychological |
| Support 3 | 2,291.59 | 100-day EMA |
Global Context & Commodities
Wall Street posted back-to-back gains as the S&P 500 rose 0.81% to 6,946.13 and the Nasdaq surged 1.26% to 23,152. Software stocks bounced back sharply after Monday’s AI-disruption panic, with Microsoft gaining 3%, Palantir adding 4.2%, and Oracle climbing 1.2% on an upgrade. Markets largely shrugged off the new 10% global tariff that took effect on Tuesday, treating it as a known event rather than a fresh shock.
Brent crude firmed to $69.30/bbl, marking a third consecutive session of gains amid persistent US-Iran tensions. The US issued a warning to American-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $64/bbl, while Barclays maintained its $65/bbl call. For Ecopetrol, the $69 Brent level provides a comfortable operating margin heading into its March 4 earnings date.
Gold held near $5,186/oz, supported by central bank buying and expectations for Fed easing later in 2026. The DXY inched up to 97.82, remaining range-bound between 96 and 100 as the market awaits clarity on both the tariff endgame and Nvidia’s earnings catalyst. Coffee C futures climbed 2.23% to $284.25/lb, a positive for Colombian agricultural exports. Consumer confidence in the US improved to 91.2 in February, beating expectations, though inflation concerns remain top of mind.
Looking Ahead
The key catalysts for the week: Nvidia earnings after Wednesday’s close will set risk sentiment for global equities; US Q4 GDP second estimate drops Thursday; US PCE inflation data on Friday is the macro event of the week for rate expectations. Domestically, Colombia’s Q4 GDP data is due soon and will be critical for validating BanRep’s 2.9% growth assumption for 2025. Ecopetrol’s Q4 earnings on March 4 will be the next major COLCAP mover.
The tariff situation remains fluid: Trump announced a raise to 15% effective immediately on Saturday, but CBP began collecting at 10% on Tuesday. Whether the rate escalates or the 150-day Section 122 window expires without extension will shape peso dynamics and export competitiveness for the rest of H1 2026. The electoral cycle is also heating up — a pro-market candidate would compress the risk premium on Colombian equities, while continuity would maintain the current political discount.
Wednesday’s 0.56% decline looks like a post-crash stabilization, not the beginning of a second leg down. The COLCAP absorbed Tuesday’s Cibest-driven liquidation, the tariff shock is already in the market, and Ecopetrol’s recovery signals that the fundamental bid remains intact. The index is holding within the Ichimoku cloud at 2,382 — a critical zone — and the neutral RSI gives it room in either direction.
The real test comes from outside Colombia. Nvidia’s earnings, Friday’s PCE print, and the tariff escalation trajectory will determine whether the 2,300 support holds or the 2,400 reclaim begins. With BanRep at 10.25%, inflation expectations at 6.4%, and elections approaching, the macro backdrop is tighter than at any point in 2025. The COLCAP’s +15.2% YTD gain is still impressive — but the easy money has been made. From here, it’s stock picking and catalyst timing, not beta.