COLCAP plunged 4.13% to 2,283.91 on Thursday — its worst single-day loss since 2024 — after the Invamer poll showed far-left candidate Iván Cepeda surging to 37.1% in presidential voting intention. Grupo Sura led the carnage with a 9.68% collapse, followed by Éxito (−8.08%) and Cibest/Bancolombia (−7.71%). With only BVC, Nutresa, and PEI closing in the green, the selloff was the broadest and deepest of 2026. The index is now 10.8% below its January 27 all-time high of 2,562.
The peso suffered its worst session in months, with the USD/COP spot surging to an intraday high of COP 3,830 before settling around COP 3,745.85 — a 3.88% depreciation from the prior session. The dollar opened at 3,712 and never looked back as investors scrambled for hard-currency cover. The CDS 5-year spread widened 10 basis points to 218 bps, the highest since July 2025, while TES 2032 and 2033 yields blew through the 14% threshold.
Ecuador escalated its trade war by announcing a tariff hike from 30% to 50% on Colombian imports, effective March 1 — adding a second shock to an already reeling market. The move, framed by Quito as a security-driven response to Colombia’s alleged inaction on narcotrafficking, comes days after Bogotá imposed 30% retaliatory tariffs on 73 Ecuadorean products via Decree 0170. Analdex warned the combined levies make bilateral trade “unviable.”
Key Indicators — February 26, 2026
| Indicator | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI COLCAP | 2,283.91 | −4.13% |
| COLCAP Weekly | — | −5.7% |
| COLCAP YTD | — | +46.6% |
| Distance from ATH (2,562) | — | −10.8% |
| USD/COP TRM (Feb 26) | 3,703.69 | +0.01% |
| USD/COP Spot (Session Avg) | 3,745.85 | +3.88% |
| USD/COP Intraday High | 3,830.00 | — |
| Peso YTD | — | +9.9% vs. 1Y ago |
| BanRep Rate | 10.25% | — |
| CDS 5Y | 218 bps | +10 bps |
| WTI Crude | $65.25 | −0.29% |
| Brent Crude | $70.85 | −1.54% |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $5,173 | −0.65% |
| DXY | 97.80 | +0.18% |
| S&P 500 | 6,908.86 | −0.54% |
| Coffee (Arabica May) | $284.40/lb | −0.23% |
Election Panic Triggers Broadest BVC Selloff of the Year
Thursday’s bloodbath was triggered by a single data point: the Invamer poll, commissioned by Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio and conducted between February 11 and 22 across 3,800 respondents in 147 municipalities. Iván Cepeda of the ruling Pacto Histórico leapt to 37.1% of voting intention, up 5.2 points from November, nearly doubling the 18.9% of conservative rival Abelardo de la Espriella. In a six-candidate scenario, Cepeda reaches 43%.
The market read is straightforward and devastating. Cepeda represents continuity with the Petro government’s statist economic agenda, and four more years of the same policies would give the left enough time to consolidate control over the Banco de la República board and judicial institutions. As Banco de Bogotá noted, Petro-era policies have already produced persistent inflation, high interest rates, and a 50-year low in the investment rate.
The damage was indiscriminate. Grupo Sura collapsed 9.68%, Éxito tumbled 8.08%, Cibest (Bancolombia) shed 7.71%, Corficolombiana dropped 6.13%, Ecopetrol fell 4.5%, and ISA retreated 4.22%. Only three stocks — BVC (+2.25%), Nutresa (+1.72%), and PEI (+0.11%) — finished in positive territory. Ecopetrol, PF Bancolombia, and the Bancolombia ordinary were the most actively traded names.
Ecopetrol’s Q4 2025 earnings are due March 4 and could provide the next catalyst. The Q3 EPS came in at COP 57.07, slightly below the COP 58.58 consensus. Analysts expect COP 43.05 per share for Q4. The stock is now trading near COP 1,790, back below key support levels that had held for months.
Peso Suffers Worst Day in Months as Flight-to-Dollar Intensifies
The peso’s two-month strengthening streak ended decisively. On the Set-FX platform, over USD 1.389 billion traded across 1,689 transactions, with the dollar opening at COP 3,712, touching an intraday low of COP 3,705, then rocketing to COP 3,830 before settling at an average of COP 3,745.85 — COP 42.16 above the official TRM of COP 3,703.69.
Bancolombia attributed the repricing to the Cepeda poll erasing the “political trade” premium that had supported the peso. The TRM had fallen from approximately COP 4,200 in mid-2025 to the COP 3,620s in early February, driven by expectations that a market-friendly successor to Petro would take office. That narrative was shattered in a single session. The CDS 5-year spread widening to 218 bps — the most since July 2025 — and TES yields blowing past 14% confirm the reversal is broad-based across all Colombian assets.
BanRep’s rate at 10.25% following the shock 100 bps hike in January now looks prescient, not hawkish. Inflation closed 2025 at 5.1%, and the 23.7% minimum wage increase is expected to keep price pressures elevated through 2026. With the trade war against Ecuador intensifying — including the suspension of electricity sales, the 900% oleoducto tariff hike by Quito, and now 50% tariffs on Colombian exports — the inflationary and fiscal outlook continues to deteriorate.
Massive Red Candle Slices Through All Near-Term Support
Thursday’s candle tells the story: a massive bearish engulfing bar that opened at 2,379.46, gapped lower from the prior close, and sold off relentlessly to an intraday low of 2,265.79 before closing at 2,283.91 — a loss of 98.50 points (−4.13%). The candle’s body is the largest on the daily chart since the index began its multi-month rally in mid-2024. Volume was extraordinary as institutional investors rushed for the exits.
The selloff sliced cleanly through the Ichimoku cloud, the Bollinger Band midline, and the key 2,303.40 support level that had contained every pullback since January. RSI crashed from the 50s into the low 40s, with the fast line at 41.28 and the slow line at 53.34 — a sharp bearish divergence that signals momentum has decisively shifted. The MACD histogram at −13.62 confirms the acceleration of the downtrend, with signal lines at 25.29 and 11.68 beginning to compress toward a bearish crossover.
The 200-day SMA sits at approximately 1,943.58 — still 17.5% below the current price — providing a backstop for the secular bull trend. However, with the index now below the cloud and all short-term moving averages curling lower, the path of least resistance is down toward the 2,265–2,200 zone unless buying emerges quickly.
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 2,385.88 | Upper Bollinger Band |
| Resistance 2 | 2,369.15 | Mid-Bollinger / Ichimoku cloud base |
| Resistance 1 | 2,303.40 | Former support, now resistance |
| Current Close | 2,283.91 | Feb 26 close |
| Support 1 | 2,265.79 | Session low |
| Support 2 | 2,200.00 | Psychological / Nov 2025 area |
| Support 3 | 1,943.58 | 200-day SMA |
Wall Street Slips on Nvidia Sell-the-News, Oil Pulls Back on Iran Talks
The S&P 500 fell 0.54% to 6,908.86, dragged lower by a 5% drop in Nvidia despite a strong earnings beat ($1.62 EPS vs. $1.53 est., $68.13B revenue vs. $66.21B est.). The Nasdaq shed 1.18% to 22,878.38 as the broader tech sector endured its worst session since the AI doubt wave began in early February. The Dow eked out a 0.03% gain at 49,499.20, cushioned by its lower tech weighting.
Oil retreated as the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks showed signs of progress, reducing the geopolitical risk premium. Brent fell 1.54% to $70.85 and WTI settled at $65.25. Gold slipped about $34 to $5,173 as the dollar firmed, with the DXY edging up 0.18% to 97.80. Arabica coffee futures continued their slide, consolidating near $284/lb — their lowest levels since late 2024 — on expectations of a record Brazilian crop of 66.2 million bags in 2026/27.
The global risk backdrop was mixed, but for Colombia the domestic shock overwhelmed everything else. While EM peers traded relatively calmly, Colombian assets repriced violently, underscoring that this was an entirely idiosyncratic, election-driven event.
March 8 Elections and Ecopetrol Earnings Loom as Next Catalysts
The March 8 congressional elections and interparty consultations are now the single most important date on the calendar. Results from the Gran Consulta por Colombia (where Paloma Valencia leads at 41.6%) and the Consulta de las Soluciones (Claudia López at 92.9%) will reshape the presidential landscape by consolidating opposition candidacies. Any outcome that narrows the field against Cepeda could trigger a sharp relief rally.
Ecopetrol’s Q4 2025 earnings on March 4 will test the market’s appetite for risk at the current depressed levels. The Ecuador tariff escalation takes effect March 1, and any retaliatory measures or diplomatic resolution will move the peso. On the macro side, US initial jobless claims data and Fed speakers this week will provide marginal direction for the DXY and EM currencies.
This was a political earthquake masquerading as a market session. A single poll result — Cepeda at 37.1%, nearly double his nearest rival — vaporized 4.1% of the COLCAP’s value, hammered the peso by nearly 4%, and widened credit spreads to seven-month highs. The market is now pricing in a non-trivial probability of policy continuity under a Pacto Histórico government, and the repricing was swift and brutal.
Yet context matters. COLCAP is still up 46.6% on a trailing 12-month basis, and the 200-day SMA at 1,943 remains unthreatened. The March 8 vote is the next inflection point — a strong opposition showing in the consultations could consolidate an anti-Cepeda coalition and reverse much of today’s move. But until then, the market has firmly entered “election risk premium” territory.
Technically, the COLCAP has broken decisively below the Ichimoku cloud and all near-term support. RSI at 41 signals room for further downside but is approaching oversold territory. The setup favors caution over aggression — this is a market that will trade on headlines, not fundamentals, until March 8 clarifies the political landscape.