Colombia Stock Market COLCAP Today Rises 0.97% to 2,199 as Hormuz Reopening Hopes Lift Sentiment

The Big Three

Colombia Stock Market COLCAP Today — Market Snapshot

Equities

Wednesday’s session saw a broad-based recovery across the BVC, with the Colombia stock market COLCAP today reclaiming the 2,200 level for the first time since March 12. The index opened at 2,180.58, briefly dipped to an intraday low of 2,158.04 in early trading, then rallied steadily through the afternoon to close at the session high of 2,199.95. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Colombian stock market and Latin American financial markets.

The catalyst was geopolitical: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israel was assisting the United States in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a relief rally across global equity markets. Brent crude pulled back from its intraday spike above $119 to settle at $108.65, easing the stagflation fears that had hammered stocks during the prior two sessions. Oil-sensitive Ecopetrol continued to benefit from elevated crude prices, while the broader financial sector found footing after the prior week’s punishing selloff.

The Investing.com session recap noted that Promigas led the COLCAP with a gain of 4.23% to COP 6,650, followed by Bancolombia Preferred (Pf Cibest) which rose 3.60% to COP 63,340 and Grupo Aval Preferred which gained 3.47% to COP 745. The financial sector’s participation in the rally was a notable shift from recent sessions dominated by oil-for-equity rotation. On the losing side, Grupo Sura ordinary fell 3.45% to COP 55,900, while Cementos Argos Preferred and ETB were unchanged. For context on the recent correction, see our coverage of Ecopetrol’s 9% surge last Friday.

Currency

The peso delivered a strong session on Wednesday, with the SPOT market closing at COP 3,676.00 — down COP 28.17 (−0.76%) from the prior close. The official TRM for March 19 had been set at COP 3,704.17, up COP 14.20 (+0.38%) from the prior day, but the intraday action told a different story as the dollar weakened sharply following the Fed’s decision and the Hormuz diplomacy signals.

The TRM for March 20 was certified at COP 3,692.48, reflecting the late-session peso strength. The DXY collapsed 0.84% to 99.03, falling below the psychologically important 100 level for the first time since the Iran war began. BanRep’s 10.25% policy rate — one of the highest real rates among emerging markets — continues to attract carry-trade inflows. The next BanRep decision is March 31, with markets expecting a hold. Year-to-date, the TRM has declined from COP 3,757.08, representing a 1.72% peso appreciation.

Technical Analysis

Wednesday’s candle was a bullish marubozu — the index opened near the low and closed at the session high, with virtually no upper wick. This is a technically constructive pattern that signals strong buying conviction through the close. The COLCAP reclaimed the 2,200 level, a key psychological and technical threshold that has served as resistance since the early-March selloff.

The MACD histogram reads −1.95, with the MACD line at −37.15 and the signal at −39.09. While both lines remain in negative territory, the histogram is narrowing — a precursor to a potential bullish crossover if the rally extends. The RSI stands at 43.07 (slow) and 39.39 (fast), both below the midpoint but trending higher, indicating room for further upside before overbought conditions emerge. The 200-day SMA sits near 1,984, well below the current price, confirming the longer-term uptrend remains intact.

Key Levels

Global Context

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50–3.75% on Wednesday, as widely expected, and its updated dot plot projected one rate cut in 2026 — unchanged from December. Chair Powell acknowledged the oil shock’s uncertain implications, noting that higher energy prices would push up overall inflation but that the full scope of the economic impact remained unclear. He specifically dismissed comparisons to 1970s stagflation, saying current unemployment and inflation levels did not warrant the term. Traders are now pricing a 73% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady or even hike in 2026, a dramatic shift from a month ago when 74% odds favored at least two cuts.

The oil market was the session’s dominant driver. Brent crude briefly topped $119 per barrel — its highest since 2022 — after Iran struck a natural gas field in the UAE and the Samref refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu was targeted by an aerial attack. However, prices pulled back sharply to settle at $108.65 after Netanyahu’s Hormuz reopening statement. WTI settled near $96.14. The ECB, BOJ, BOE, and Bank of Canada all held rates steady on Thursday, citing the same war-driven uncertainty. Wall Street pared steep early losses: the S&P 500 closed down just 0.27% at 6,606.49 after being down nearly 1% at its lows, the Dow lost 0.44% to 46,021.43, and the Nasdaq shed 0.28% to 22,090.69. Gold cratered roughly $322 to approximately $4,569 as the stronger dollar and reduced rate-cut expectations undercut the safe-haven trade. Also read our prior session’s Colombia market report for context on Monday’s Reficar dynamics.

Looking Ahead

The immediate focus remains the Strait of Hormuz situation. Netanyahu’s statement catalyzed a late-session recovery across global markets, but shipping through the strait remains effectively halted, and the U.S. has threatened Iran’s energy infrastructure if blockages persist. Any concrete progress on reopening the waterway would extend the relief rally; a further escalation would send Brent back toward $119 and beyond, reigniting stagflation fears.

Domestically, BanRep’s next rate decision on March 31 looms as a key event. The 10.25% policy rate is the highest in the region, and the Board faces the challenge of managing oil-driven inflation pressures against an economy that needs monetary relief. The May 31 presidential first round is now approximately 10 weeks away, with Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático), Claudia López (center), and Iván Cepeda (Pacto Histórico) as the principal candidates. Polling shifts will continue to shape the equity risk premium.

Verdict

Wednesday’s bullish marubozu close at 2,199.95 signals the strongest buying conviction the COLCAP has shown since the March selloff began. The recapture of 2,200 — combined with Brent pulling back from $119 to $109, the peso rallying, and the Fed delivering no hawkish surprises — suggests the near-term floor may be forming. However, the war in Iran remains the overwhelming risk variable, and any reacceleration in hostilities could undo the session’s gains rapidly. A sustained close above 2,220 would turn the near-term bias bullish and open the path toward 2,257. A break below 2,158 reopens the risk toward 2,100.

Bias: Cautiously bullish near-term, constructive medium-term.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Rio Times is not a licensed financial advisor. Data sourced from TradingView, Investing.com, Banco de la República, dolar-colombia.com, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, and Trading Economics. All figures are subject to revision. Past performance is not indicative of future results.