BVC / MSCI COLCAP Daily Report · March 5, 2026 · Covering March 4 Session
The Big Three
COLCAP posts its first gain in four sessions, rising +0.99% to 2,170.53. The index recovered from an intraday low of 2,154.36 to close at 2,170.53, with a session high of 2,199.66. The partial rebound follows cumulative losses of roughly 6.5% over March 2–3, meaning the index has surrendered more than 15% from its January 27 all-time high of 2,562. Ecopetrol, which drives over 15% of the index weighting, closed at 2,180 COP (−1.80%), limiting the recovery as its 2025 earnings missed expectations.
Ecopetrol’s 2025 profit collapses 39.5% to COP 9 trillion — the second-lowest result of the decade. The state oil company reported full-year earnings after the March 4 close: net profit fell from COP 14.9 trillion in 2024 to COP 9 trillion in 2025, driven by a $6/bbl average drop in Brent prices, lower refinery sales volumes, and a strengthened peso that eroded dollar-denominated revenues. Only 2020’s pandemic-era COP 1.68 trillion result was worse. Ecopetrol’s CEO Ricardo Roa highlighted record crude output over the past five years; an investor conference call is scheduled for March 5 at 9:00 a.m.
Peso firms to 3,747 COP per dollar even as Brent holds above $80 and BanRep stays at 10.25%. The peso strengthened on March 4, with the official TRM falling to 3,747 COP (from 3,797 on March 3), as political risk was partly offset by oil export receipts. The Banco de la República’s January 100 basis-point hike to 10.25% — a hawkish pivot amid election-year fiscal concerns — continues to attract carry-trade flows that support the currency despite the global risk-off environment.
Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Change |
| COLCAP Close | 2,170.53 | +0.99% |
| Session High | 2,199.66 | intraday |
| Session Low | 2,154.36 | intraday |
| USD/COP (TRM Mar 5) | 3,747.00 | −0.88% |
| BanRep Policy Rate | 10.25% | +100 bps (Jan 30) |
| Brent Crude | $81.65 | +32% YTD |
| S&P 500 | 6,816.63 | −0.94% (Mar 3) |
| VIX | 25.95 | elevated |
| ATH (Jan 27, 2026) | 2,562.00 | −15.3% from ATH |
Equities — Key Movers (March 4)
| Ticker | Close (COP) | Change |
| ECOPETROL (Ecopetrol) | 2,180 | −1.80% |
| CIBEST (Grupo Cibest ord.) | — | −3.49% (Mar 3) |
| PFCIBEST (Grupo Cibest pref.) | — | −1.60% (Mar 3) |
| GRUPOBOL (Grupo Bolívar) | — | −8.46% (Mar 3) |
| PFDAVVNDA (Davivienda pref.) | — | −6.89% (Mar 3) |
| GRUPOAVAL (Grupo Aval) | 208.84 | −18.18% (Mar 3) |
Currency
The Colombian peso strengthened on March 4, with the official TRM — the rate published by the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia and applicable on March 5 — set at 3,747.00 COP per dollar. This compares with the March 3 TRM of 3,797.64 COP, a notable 50-peso appreciation in a single session. The peso benefited from oil export revenues and the partial stabilization of global risk appetite after the worst of the Hormuz shock. Analysts at Corficolombiana noted that the high domestic interest rate differential of roughly 700 basis points versus U.S. rates continues to support carry-trade inflows. However, the Bancolombia Grupo Cibest research arm has projected an average 2026 rate of 3,878 COP, implying the peso remains vulnerable to a renewed dollar surge if the Iran conflict escalates further.
Election-season risk remains a weight on the currency: the peso fell sharply in late February as leftist candidate Cepeda took a dominant lead in polls, before partially recovering as investors re-assessed the fiscal implications.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart (1D):
Wednesday’s +0.99% candle is a technical relief bounce, not a confirmed reversal. The COLCAP closed at 2,170.53 after dipping as low as 2,154.36, the chart’s most recent intraday support. The Ichimoku structure remains severely damaged from the prior two sessions: the index sits deep below the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen levels it shattered during the Iran shock selloff, and price has now broken below all the short-term moving average support lines visible on the chart.
The MACD histogram is deeply negative at −4.53, with the MACD line at −33.49 and the signal at −38.02. Both lines remain well below zero, confirming the bearish momentum is not yet exhausted. The RSI (fast) sits at 47.45 and the slow RSI at 34.58 — the slow line is approaching oversold territory, which historically has preceded short-term bounces in COLCAP. The long-term ascending support trendline (the thick blue diagonal on the chart) sits near 1,954 currently, providing the major structural floor if the current correction deepens. The index remains 11.4% above this trendline at current prices.
Key Levels
| Level | Points | Reference |
| R3 | 2,562 | All-time high (Jan 27) |
| R2 | 2,257–2,270 | Ichimoku Tenkan / prior support |
| R1 | 2,199 | March 4 session high |
| Current | 2,170.53 | March 4 close |
| S1 | 2,154 | March 4 session low |
| S2 | 2,100 | Technical support / Feb trough |
| S3 | 1,954 | Long-term ascending trendline |
Global Context
The Iran-Hormuz crisis has fundamentally repriced global energy markets. Brent crude closed at $81.65 on March 4 — up over 32% year-to-date — while the EIA reported U.S. crude inventories rose 3.5 million barrels in the latest week, a bearish signal that tempered the intraday spike. Citigroup analysts set a near-term base-case range of $80–$90/bbl, contingent on how quickly Iranian leadership changes. Morgan Stanley revised its Q2 2026 Brent forecast upward to $80 from $62.50.
The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on March 3 to close at 6,816.63, with the VIX spiking to 25.95 — its highest close since November 2025. China’s National People’s Congress opens March 5, with Premier Li Qiang expected to announce the 2026 growth target. Any stimulus signals would benefit Colombian commodity exporters, particularly the coal and coffee sectors. Latin American markets were broadly hit: Lima led regional losses, while in the prior week, Lima had led gains at +32% for February.
Colombia’s domestic political landscape adds another layer of uncertainty. Presidential election polls through late February showed leftist candidate Cepeda with a dominant lead. Fitch reaffirmed Colombia’s BB+ sovereign rating with stable outlook in November 2025, but analysts warn that fiscal deterioration — partly linked to Ecopetrol’s collapsing dividend flow to the state — could pressure that rating.
Looking Ahead
Ecopetrol Earnings Call (March 5, 9:00 a.m.):
Investors will scrutinize the company’s forward guidance on production, dividends, and U.S. Permian strategy. The 39.5% earnings drop means the Colombian state — which owns 88% of Ecopetrol — will receive significantly fewer dividends in 2026, tightening the fiscal gap. Analyst Andrés Duarte of Corficolombiana estimates each $1/bbl fall in Brent reduces Ecopetrol’s annual earnings by roughly COP 500 billion. The current Brent spike provides temporary relief but may not offset structural production declines.
BanRep — Next Meeting:
The Banco de la República raised its benchmark rate by 100 basis points to 10.25% in January 2026 — a hawkish shock driven by election-year fiscal pressures and minimum wage inflation. The next board meeting dates will be closely watched: if Brent remains elevated and the peso depreciates, further hikes remain possible even as global peers begin easing.
Political Cycle:
Colombia’s presidential elections in 2026 are increasingly driving equity risk premiums. Bancolombia’s equity research arm estimated a modest ~8% total return scenario for the COLCAP in 2026 before the Iran shock; that figure is now under review. Foreign flows, which exceeded all of 2025 through early 2026, have slowed as geopolitical and electoral risks compound. The COLCAP is now down over 15% from its ATH, erasing all of the year’s gains and testing medium-term support.
Verdict
Wednesday’s rebound is a technical reprieve after a brutal two-day selloff, not a signal that the worst is over. The COLCAP has lost over 15% from its January 27 all-time high of 2,562, wiping out all 2026 gains. The MACD remains deeply negative, the Ichimoku structure is broken, and the slow RSI is approaching oversold territory without yet triggering a clean reversal signal.
The Ecopetrol earnings release is the day’s pivotal event. A 39.5% profit collapse — to COP 9 trillion, the second-lowest in a decade — is structurally significant because Ecopetrol dividends finance a meaningful portion of the Colombian state budget. Less profit means less fiscal headroom, which reinforces BanRep’s hawkish bias, which in turn suppresses the rate-sensitive financial sector that now dominates 58% of the COLCAP weighting.
The bull case is not extinct. Brent above $80 provides a short-term income boost to Ecopetrol; the peso’s resilience at 3,747 COP shows domestic demand for the currency remains; and the long-term ascending trendline near 1,954 offers structural support still 11% below current prices. But near-term, the index is caught between geopolitical uncertainty, election risk, and disappointing corporate earnings.
Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH — relief bounce confirmed, but reversal unproven. Bulls need a sustained close above 2,257 (Tenkan-sen zone) to regain traction; a close below 2,154 session lows reopens the path toward the 2,100 technical support and, below that, the 1,954 long-term trendline.