The Rio Times · Colombia Market Report
Morning Edition · March 23, 2026 · Covering March 20 Session
The Big Three
1
COLCAP rallied 1.40% to 2,230.71 on Friday, closing out a second consecutive positive week as Ecopetrol led the charge. The index opened at 2,199.10, tested a low of 2,178.02, then climbed to a session high of 2,236.17 before settling at 2,230.71 — its highest close in over a week. The gain of 30.76 points reversed three prior losing sessions and leaves COLCAP 12.95% below its January 27 all-time high of 2,562.00 while maintaining a year-to-date advance of approximately 7.9%.
2
Ecopetrol surged to COP 2,735 (+2.24%) as Brent above $107 offsets a deepening governance crisis. The state-controlled oil company climbed despite the Unión Sindical Obrera (USO) formally demanding that CEO Ricardo Roa resign over his March 11 indictment for alleged influence trafficking. The USO warned it could mobilize 25,000 of Ecopetrol’s 87,000 workers in a national strike. Yet Brent crude’s sustained run above $100 — driven by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption — continues to provide a powerful tailwind: the stock has surged past COP 2,800 intraday earlier in the week for the first time since January 2023.
3
The peso weakened modestly to COP 3,704.87 per dollar as the weekly dollar trend turns higher. The TRM for March 21–24 rose COP 12.39 (+0.34%) from the prior session’s COP 3,692.48, registering a weekly increase of COP 19.34 (+0.52%). The move reflects both the DXY’s climb toward 99.50 on hawkish Fed repricing and an uptick in risk aversion across emerging markets. Year-to-date, however, the peso retains a modest 1.39% appreciation, and remains down 11.1% from its year-ago level — evidence of the structural rerating that Colombia’s macro story still supports.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Close | Chg |
| MSCI COLCAP | 2,230.71 | +1.40% |
| Ecopetrol (BVC: ECO) | COP 2,735 | +2.24% |
| USD/COP (TRM Mar 21–24) | 3,704.87 | +0.34% |
| Brent Crude | $107.40 | −5.56% |
| BanRep Rate | 10.25% | unch |
| S&P 500 | 5,667.56 | −1.51% |
| COLCAP ATH (Jan 27) | 2,562.00 | −12.95% |
02 Equities
The Colombia stock market COLCAP today posted a solid rebound on Friday’s session, climbing 1.40% to close at 2,230.71 — its second consecutive weekly gain after the brutal February selloff that erased more than 10% from the index. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Colombian stock market and Latin American financial markets.
Ecopetrol was the session’s standout, rising 2.24% to COP 2,735 on the back of persistently elevated oil prices. La República reported the stock traded as high as COP 2,745 intraday, with a volume of COP 92.6 billion — by far the most actively traded name on the BVC. The Hormuz premium continues to underpin the stock even as governance risks intensify: the Fiscalía General imputó Roa on March 11 for alleged influence trafficking, and the USO on March 18 formally demanded his removal from the presidency.
The broader market benefited from the financials complex. Grupo Cibest (formerly Bancolombia), the largest COLCAP constituent by weight, has maintained its recompra de acciones program at roughly 20% execution of a COP 1.35 trillion authorization, providing structural support for the index. The weekly advance marks an important technical development: COLCAP reclaimed territory above the 2,220 level that acted as resistance through much of mid-March. Year-to-date the index retains a gain of approximately 7.9%, comfortably above Corficolombiana’s pessimistic scenario target of 2,181 and approaching the firm’s base-case fair value of 2,289.
03 Currency
The Colombian peso weakened modestly on Friday as the TRM for March 21–24 was set at COP 3,704.87, up COP 12.39 (+0.34%) from the prior session’s COP 3,692.48. The weekly picture shows a COP 19.34 increase (+0.52%), reversing the prior week’s downward trend and reflecting the resurgent dollar’s influence on emerging market currencies. The DXY pushed toward 99.50 on Friday as markets priced out all 2026 Fed rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing 11 basis points to 4.39%.
On the month, however, the peso has appreciated 1.63% — a COP 61.43 decline from the start of March — suggesting that the structural factors underpinning peso strength remain intact despite the global risk-off impulse. Year-to-date, the TRM is down 1.39% (COP 52.21 lower than January 1), and compared with the same period a year ago, the peso has strengthened 11.13% (COP 463.95), a stark reflection of Colombia’s improved macro positioning. The Banco de la República’s hawkish 100 basis-point hike to 10.25% in January continues to provide a significant carry advantage, though the widening spread between Colombian and U.S. real rates is narrowing as the Fed maintains its own restrictive stance.
04 Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows COLCAP recovering from the 2,178 session low to close at 2,230.71, reclaiming the 2,220 level that had acted as near-term resistance. The MACD histogram at 2.06 has turned marginally positive for the first time since mid-February, though the signal lines remain firmly in negative territory at −34.58 and −36.63 — indicating that the broader bearish momentum is only beginning to dissipate, not yet reversed. The RSI at 47.45 sits in neutral territory, up from the 31.70 oversold reading recorded earlier in March, suggesting the worst of the selling pressure has passed but confirming that no bullish thrust is yet underway.
The Bollinger bands are beginning to compress after the February volatility expansion, typically a precursor to a directional move. Price is trading in the lower half of the band structure, suggesting the next decisive break will determine whether COLCAP re-enters the bull-market channel above 2,300 or retests the 2,100 support zone. The 200-day SMA at approximately 1,987 remains far below current price, confirming that the primary uptrend from 2024 is structurally intact despite the correction.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Price | Source |
| Resistance 3 | 2,407 | Upper Bollinger / Feb high zone |
| Resistance 2 | 2,302 | Prior consolidation / MA cluster |
| Resistance 1 | 2,258 | 20-day EMA / near-term ceiling |
| Friday Close | 2,230.71 | March 20, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 2,178 | Friday session low |
| Support 2 | 2,100 | Technical support zone |
| Support 3 | 2,061 | March low / 50-week MA area |
06 Global Context
The global backdrop remains dominated by the Iran–Hormuz crisis and its cascading effects on energy, inflation, and monetary policy. Brent crude opened at $107.40 on Friday morning, down $6.31 from Thursday’s level after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu signaled Israel would heed President Trump’s call to avoid further attacks on key Iranian energy sites. However, prices remain firmly in triple digits: the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for 19 days, choking off roughly 20% of global oil supply. Goldman Sachs warned that Brent could exceed its 2008 all-time high of $147 if disruptions persist, while the EIA forecasts prices remaining above $95 through May before easing.
For Colombia, the oil shock cuts both ways. Ecopetrol and government petroleum royalties benefit directly from elevated prices, but the inflationary pass-through via fuel costs complicates the Banco de la República’s already difficult rate-cutting calculus. The central bank’s hawkish 100 basis-point hike to 10.25% in January — widely seen as a preemptive response to the Hormuz-driven inflation threat — has priced out any near-term easing expectations. U.S. markets fell sharply on Friday: the S&P 500 dropped 1.51%, the VIX spiked to 26.78, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.39% as the Fed’s hawkish hold drove rate-hike bets to 50% by October on CME FedWatch.
07 Looking Ahead
The week ahead brings several catalysts that could define COLCAP’s near-term trajectory. U.S. March PMI data on Monday and Tuesday will test whether the economy is absorbing the oil shock or buckling under it — weak readings could paradoxically benefit Colombian equities by reviving rate-cut expectations, while strong data would reinforce the hawkish hold that has pressured emerging markets. Closer to home, the Ecopetrol–USO confrontation is the dominant domestic risk: the union’s threat to mobilize 25,000 workers into a national strike introduces a binary outcome for a stock that represents the single largest driver of BVC sentiment.
The presidential election cycle continues to inject volatility. Bloomberg Línea noted that the advance of the Pacto Histórico in congressional results maintains uncertainty for local assets, while the centroright bloc’s showing provides partial offset. Aval Casa de Bolsa has maintained that the market requires clarity on the political, institutional, and regulatory landscape before fully rerating — a dynamic that will intensify as campaigning accelerates. On the ceasefire watch, any progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz would immediately collapse oil prices, ease inflation expectations, and unlock rate-cut pricing — a scenario that would be sharply positive for peso-denominated assets but negative for Ecopetrol specifically.
08 Verdict
COLCAP’s 1.40% gain on Friday capped a constructive week, but the index remains caught between two powerful forces: the Hormuz oil premium that is lifting Ecopetrol and the global risk-off impulse that is compressing all emerging market multiples. The technical picture has improved — the MACD histogram has turned positive and RSI has exited oversold territory — but the short-term trend remains bearish below the 2,258 resistance level. The 200-day SMA at 1,987 confirms the primary bull trend is intact, and the index trades well above both Corficolombiana’s pessimistic target of 2,181 and Acciones & Valores’ fair value of 2,289.
The Ecopetrol–USO standoff is the single largest asymmetric risk on the BVC this week. A strike involving one-third of the workforce would disrupt production at a moment when the Hormuz premium makes every barrel maximally valuable. Conversely, resolution — whether through Roa’s departure or union stand-down — would remove the governance discount that has capped the stock even as Brent trades above $107. The peso’s year-to-date strength and the 10.25% policy rate provide a macro cushion, but that cushion is being tested by the DXY’s resurgence and the evaporation of global rate-cut expectations.
Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. The primary uptrend is intact above the 200-day SMA at 1,987, and the correction from the January ATH appears to be basing. A daily close above 2,258 would confirm a re-acceleration toward 2,302 and ultimately the 2,400 zone. A break below 2,100 would shift the bias to Neutral and open the path to 2,061. The Ecopetrol governance crisis and Hormuz resolution are the key swing factors.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data sourced from BVC, TradingView, Investing.com, La República, Infobae, Bloomberg Línea, Banco de la República, dolar-colombia.com, Valora Analitik, Semana, El Tiempo, Fortune, EIA, and CNN Business. © 2026 The Rio Times.