The Big Three
COLCAP plunges 2.95% in worst session since early February. The index closed at 2,395.81, shedding 72.77 points as Trump’s new 15% global tariff threat and AI disruption fears triggered broad selling across emerging markets. The session wiped out last week’s +2.08% weekly gain in a single day.
Peso weakens as TRM climbs to highest since mid-January. The TRM for February 25 was set at COP 3,703.28, up $5.92 (+0.16%), marking the highest level in over a month. The SPOT market averaged COP 3,703.16 on Tuesday, trading $5.80 above the session TRM of 3,697.36.
Nvidia earnings today will set the tone for global risk appetite. The chipmaker reports Q4 FY2026 results after Wednesday’s close, with consensus at $65.7B revenue (+67% YoY). Trump’s State of the Union Tuesday night doubled down on tariffs, calling the Supreme Court ruling “unfortunate” and vowing tariffs would replace income taxes.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| COLCAP Close | 2,395.81 | −2.95% |
| COLCAP Weekly | — | −0.91% |
| COLCAP YTD | — | +13.5% |
| COLCAP ATH | 2,562.00 | −6.5% from ATH |
| USD/COP TRM (Feb 25) | 3,703.28 | — |
| USD/COP TRM (Feb 24) | 3,697.36 | — |
| USD/COP SPOT Avg | 3,703.16 | +$5.80 vs TRM |
| Peso YTD vs USD | — | +9.2% (12m) |
| BanRep Rate | 10.25% | +100bps (Jan 30) |
| WTI Crude | US$66.01 | Near 6-month high |
| Brent Crude | US$70.89 | US-Iran risk premium |
| Gold | US$5,130 | −2.0% (profit-taking) |
| DXY | 97.79 | +0.15% |
| S&P 500 | 6,890.07 | +0.77% |
| Coffee (May) | US$2.85/lb | Near 6-month low |
Equities & Corporate
COLCAP suffered its sharpest single-session decline since early February, plunging 2.95% to 2,395.81 as the new 10% U.S. tariff took effect at midnight and Trump threatened to raise it to 15%. The index gapped lower at the open from Monday’s close of 2,468.58, starting at 2,455.42 and selling off steadily to a session low of 2,368.39 before recovering slightly into the close.
Selling was broad-based as global AI disruption fears from the prior session carried over into Colombian equities. Financial and energy names led the decline, with the broader sell-off erasing last week’s +2.08% weekly gain in a single session. The intraday range of nearly 95 points (2,463.16 to 2,368.39) reflected elevated volatility and nervous positioning ahead of Nvidia earnings.
Ecopetrol, which reports Q4 results on March 4, remains the bellwether to watch as oil prices hold near six-month highs. Aval Casa de Bolsa has a COP 2,250 price target on the stock with 26.5% total return potential including dividends. The broader YTD gain for COLCAP has narrowed to approximately +13.5% from +16.9% at Friday’s close.
Currency & Monetary Policy
The SPOT market on Tuesday averaged COP 3,703.16, trading $5.80 above the session TRM of 3,697.36. The pair opened higher and maintained a slight bid throughout the day, reflecting risk-off sentiment in EM currencies. The TRM for Wednesday was set at COP 3,703.28, the highest since January 13 and up $11.94 for the week so far.
Despite the weekly weakness, the peso retains a 9.2% appreciation versus the dollar over the past twelve months, underpinned by high domestic carry. The DXY edged up 0.15% to 97.79 on Tuesday as Fed Governor Susan Collins signaled holding rates steady remains appropriate, though markets still price in roughly three 25bps Fed cuts for 2026.
BanRep’s surprise 100bps hike to 10.25% on January 30 remains the dominant domestic policy factor. The decision, which passed 4-2-1 (four for the hike, two for a 50bps cut, one for hold), reflected alarm at inflation expectations jumping from 4.6% to 6.4% for year-end 2026. With the 23.7% minimum wage hike feeding through, the rate differential continues to attract carry flows even as global risk appetite wobbles.
Technical Analysis — MSCI COLCAP Daily
Tuesday’s candle was emphatically bearish: a large red body spanning from the open at 2,455.42 to the close at 2,395.81, with a brief wick down to 2,368.39. Price sliced through multiple Ichimoku cloud layers and the cluster of support lines between 2,402 and 2,384, settling just above the lower boundary of the visible cloud zone near 2,392.95.
RSI reads 54.00 / 53.25, still in neutral territory but dropping fast from the mid-70s levels seen at the January ATH. The MACD panel shows the MACD line at 30.33 and signal line at 25.16, both still positive, but the histogram has flipped to −5.17 with red bars below the zero line — confirming fading upward momentum and the first sustained bearish signal since mid-January.
The 200-day SMA sits at 1,936.67, a full 19.2% below the current close, preserving the structural bull case. The Ichimoku cloud remains supportive on the weekly timeframe, with the key cloud cluster between 2,286 and 2,303 acting as the next major support zone below. A breach of 2,383 would open a path toward that area.
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 (ATH) | 2,562.00 |
| Resistance 2 (Feb High) | 2,437.03 |
| Resistance 1 (Senkou Span A) | 2,414.99 |
| Current Close | 2,395.81 |
| Support 1 (Cloud Base) | 2,383.97 |
| Support 2 (Senkou Span B) | 2,303.40 |
| Support 3 (200 SMA) | 1,936.67 |
Global Context & Commodities
Wall Street staged a “Turnaround Tuesday” rebound after Monday’s rout, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.77% to 6,890.07, the Dow adding 370 points (+0.76%) to 49,174.50, and the Nasdaq rising 1.04% to 22,863.68. AMD surged 8.8% after Meta announced a multiyear deal for up to 6 gigawatts of GPUs, while Home Depot beat earnings estimates. Software stocks mounted a relief rally after Anthropic’s enterprise event proved less disruptive than feared.
Oil prices held near six-month highs with WTI around $66.01 and Brent at $70.89, as US-Iran nuclear talks continue under a 10-day deadline. Trump warned of “serious consequences” if no deal is reached, while the U.S. ordered diplomatic staffers out of its Beirut embassy. For Colombia, elevated Brent above $70 supports Ecopetrol’s revenue outlook and fiscal receipts ahead of the March 4 earnings report.
Gold retreated roughly 2% to $5,130/oz on profit-taking after four consecutive sessions of gains, though it remains near all-time highs on tariff and geopolitical uncertainty. Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.85/lb, near six-month lows, as Brazil’s CONAB forecast a record 66.2 million bags for 2026 (+17.2% YoY). The DXY firmed slightly to 97.79 (+0.15%) as Fed speakers emphasized a hold-steady stance on rates.
Looking Ahead
Today’s Nvidia earnings after the U.S. close will be the dominant near-term catalyst. Consensus expects $65.7B in revenue and $1.53 EPS, but Q1 FY2027 guidance near $71B is the real event. A beat could restore risk appetite and lift EM equities; a miss would intensify the AI-disruption narrative that hammered software stocks this week. Trump’s State of the Union doubled down on tariffs without new detail, keeping the 150-day Section 122 clock ticking.
Domestically, the BanRep 10.25% rate creates a challenging environment where carry attractiveness competes with growth drag. Inflation expectations at 6.4% for year-end 2026 remain well above the 3% target, and the 23.7% minimum wage increase will keep cost pressures elevated. Ecopetrol’s March 4 earnings, the third round of US-Iran talks in Geneva on Thursday, and Friday’s U.S. PPI data round out a packed catalyst calendar for Colombian assets.
Verdict
Tuesday’s nearly 3% plunge was Colombia’s sharpest single-session drop in weeks, but context matters: COLCAP is still up roughly 13.5% YTD and sits just 6.5% below its all-time high. The sell-off was global in nature — tariff uncertainty, AI disruption fears, and pre-Nvidia positioning all converged — rather than a Colombia-specific de-rating.
The structural backdrop remains supportive: oil above $70, a 10.25% policy rate attracting carry flows, and a peso that has appreciated 9.2% over twelve months. But risks are rising — inflation expectations at 6.4% leave BanRep boxed in, the new U.S. tariff regime adds uncertainty to trade flows, and coffee near six-month lows pressures agricultural exports.
Technically, the 2,383.97 cloud base is the line in the sand. Hold it and the correction is a healthy pullback within a bull trend; lose it and 2,303 Senkou Span B becomes the next floor. The 200-day SMA at 1,936.67 sits 19.2% below, underscoring the long-term uptrend. Bulls need Nvidia to deliver tonight; bears need 2,383 to crack.