The S&P CLX IPSA fell 0.75% to 11,049.97 on Thursday, snapping a four-session winning streak as the Nvidia-led tech selloff in New York dragged the Nasdaq down 1.18% and triggered broad risk-off across emerging markets. The index opened near 11,133 and slumped as low as 10,964 at midday before a partial recovery. Banks bore the brunt: BCI tumbled 2.87%, Itaú Chile fell 2.75%, and CAP dropped 2.38%.
The dollar surged CLP 9.5 to close at CLP 866.8 — its biggest single-day jump in weeks — as copper retreated to ~US$5.97/lb, US jobless claims beat expectations by 30,000, and Fed rate-cut bets were trimmed. The probability of a June cut fell to roughly 50%, while the dólar observado published for February 26 was CLP 857.58 (based on February 25 transactions). The peso had briefly dipped below 857 the prior day.
USTR Jamieson Greer confirmed the 10% global tariff will rise to 15% “where appropriate” via a presidential proclamation, while launching Section 301 investigations targeting industrial overcapacity and forced labor in supply chains. While Chile was not named specifically, the escalation keeps copper export channels and FTA terms under a cloud of uncertainty. Separately, US$93 billion in Chilean investment remains stalled due to permitting delays.
Key Indicators — February 26, 2026
| Indicator | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P CLX IPSA | 11,049.97 | −0.75% |
| IPSA Weekly | — | −0.75% |
| IPSA YTD | — | +52.1% |
| Distance from ATH (11,721.38) | — | −5.7% |
| USD/CLP Spot | 866.80 | +9.5 |
| Dólar Observado (Feb 26) | 857.58 | — |
| Peso YTD vs USD | — | +4.4% |
| BCCh TPM | 4.50% | — |
| Copper COMEX | ~US$5.97/lb | −0.7% |
| Gold | US$5,173 | −$34 |
| DXY | 97.80 | +0.18% |
| S&P 500 | 6,908.89 | −0.54% |
| Nasdaq | 22,878.38 | −1.18% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.012% | — |
Banks and Retailers Lead Losses as Nvidia Reaction Hits Santiago
The IPSA opened near 11,133 and traded flat through the morning as investors digested Nvidia’s blowout Q4 numbers — $68.13 billion in revenue and $78 billion guidance — before Wall Street’s afternoon session pulled the rug. By midday Santiago time, the index had slumped as much as 1.5% to 10,964 before a partial recovery into the close at 11,049.97.
Banks bore the brunt of the selloff. BCI tumbled 2.87%, Itaú Chile fell 2.75%, and Banco Santander shed 1.63%, reflecting the risk-off rotation out of financials. Among commodity-linked names, CAP dropped 2.38% and Copec slid 1.20% as copper retreated from the previous session’s US$6.05 level.
Retail heavyweight Cencosud fell 2.54% and CencoMalls lost 2.21%, while Latam Airlines eased 0.79%. On the positive side, ECL stood out with a 2.70% gain, and Falabella managed a modest 0.34% advance. Enel Américas was essentially flat at +0.09% after reporting its annual results and proposing a definitive dividend.
Diario Financiero noted that BCI, Itaú, and CAP led the IPSA losses intraday, with analyst Dan Coatsworth of AJ Bell quoted as saying Nvidia’s AI narrative is starting to fatigue the market even as the numbers beat across the board. The session ended a four-day winning streak that had recovered roughly 3% from mid-February lows.
Dollar Surges CLP 9.5 as Copper Retreats and US Labor Data Surprises
The dollar surged CLP 9.5 on Thursday to close at CLP 866.8, its biggest daily jump in weeks. The move reversed four sessions of peso strength that had pushed the pair below 860 the day before. The session opened near 856.50 before accelerating through the afternoon, hitting an intraday high of 866.88.
Three forces converged. First, copper slipped roughly 0.7% on the COMEX to around US$5.97 per pound as Shanghai inventories rose and post–Lunar New Year demand signals softened. Second, US initial jobless claims came in 30,000 below expectations, reinforcing the resilience of the US labor market and trimming Fed rate-cut bets — the probability of a June cut fell to roughly 50%. Third, the Nvidia reaction triggered a broad risk-off move that strengthened the dollar against emerging-market currencies.
The dólar observado published for February 26 was CLP 857.58 (based on February 25 transactions), well below Thursday’s spot close. The BCCh’s TPM remains at 4.50%, with markets expecting the board to hold steady at its next meeting given persistent core inflation and the external uncertainty introduced by the evolving US tariff framework.
Pullback Tests 20-DMA as RSI Returns to Neutral
Thursday’s session produced a decisive red candle with OHLC of 11,133.28 / 11,145.17 / 10,956.62 / 11,049.69 (−83.59, −0.75%). The index pulled back sharply from the upper Bollinger Band toward the 20-day moving average cluster near 10,936–10,982. The session low of 10,956.62 tested the middle band before buyers stepped in. The 200-day SMA sits far below at 9,379, confirming the long-term uptrend remains intact.
The RSI cooled to 50.25/45.70 from elevated territory, now sitting at neutral. The MACD histogram printed −28.79, deepening the bearish crossover signal that began in early February. The signal and MACD lines are converging at −10.87/−17.92, suggesting momentum has stalled but not yet reversed decisively.
S&P IPSA Index · Daily · BCS · TradingView · Feb 27, 2026
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 (ATH) | 11,721.38 | Jan 28 all-time high |
| Resistance 2 | 11,208.24 | Upper Bollinger Band |
| Resistance 1 | 11,109.06 | Near-term horizontal |
| Current Close | 11,049.97 | Feb 26 close |
| Support 1 (20-DMA) | 10,936.73 | Bollinger midline |
| Support 2 | 10,916.57 | Lower band cluster |
| Support 3 | 10,645.41 | Prior swing low |
Nvidia Sell-the-News Drags Tech, Tariff Escalation Clouds EM Outlook
The S&P 500 fell 0.54% to 6,908.89 as Nvidia dropped despite beating estimates on both EPS ($1.62 vs. $1.53) and revenue ($68.13B vs. $66.21B). The Nasdaq shed 1.18% to 22,878.38, while the Dow barely held flat at 49,499.20 (+0.03%). The market’s sell-the-news reaction reflected growing fatigue with AI valuations despite record numbers.
Defensives rallied: the US 10-year yield fell to 4.012% as capital rotated into Treasuries. The DXY firmed to 97.80 (+0.18%), while gold dipped $34 to $5,173 per ounce. Copper retreated roughly 0.7% to ~US$5.97/lb on Shanghai inventory builds and softening post-holiday demand from China.
On the trade front, USTR Jamieson Greer confirmed that the 10% global tariff imposed under Section 122 will rise to 15% “where appropriate” via an upcoming presidential proclamation. He outlined plans for Section 301 investigations into unfair trade practices, targeting industrial overcapacity, forced labor, and discrimination against US tech firms. While Chile was not named specifically, the escalation adds uncertainty to copper export channels and the US-Chile FTA framework.
US GDP Data and Copper Trajectory to Set Friday’s Tone
Friday brings the US Q4 2025 GDP second estimate and the Chicago PMI, both capable of moving rate expectations and the dollar. In Chile, the market will absorb the tariff escalation rhetoric and monitor whether the CLP 867 level holds or if the peso reclaims sub-860 territory. Copper’s trajectory around the US$6.00 per pound threshold remains the single biggest swing factor for the peso and IPSA alike.
The “permisología” debate continues to simmer domestically, with an estimated US$93 billion in investment reportedly stalled due to permitting delays — a structural drag that could limit the upside even if external conditions stabilize. Enel Américas’ earnings report and dividend proposal will be scrutinized for signals on utility-sector capital allocation in the region.
Thursday was a textbook exogenous shock session. Chile’s fundamentals didn’t change, but the convergence of a Nvidia-driven tech selloff, stronger US labor data, and a retreating copper price conspired to snap the IPSA’s four-day recovery and send the dollar surging nearly CLP 10 in a single session.
The 10,957 intraday low held just above the 20-DMA, keeping the medium-term bullish structure alive. But the RSI’s slide to neutral and the deepening MACD bearish crossover suggest momentum has stalled. The tariff escalation overhang — with Greer signaling 15% and Section 301 probes — adds a layer of uncertainty that copper-dependent Chile cannot easily shake off.
Any rebound will need fresh copper fuel above US$6.00 or a dovish US data surprise to gain traction. The 200-day SMA at 9,379 is far enough below to confirm the secular bull trend, but the near-term path of least resistance is sideways to lower until the tariff fog lifts and copper demand from post-holiday China provides clearer signals.