The S&P/CLX IPSA surged 1.29% to 11,133.28 on Wednesday, its fourth consecutive gain, fueled by SQM-B’s 4.6% rally after Zimbabwe suspended all raw lithium exports and China’s post-Lunar New Year buying returned. Turnover hit CLP 210 billion, with SQM alone accounting for a fifth of all volume. The IPSA remains 5% below its January 28 all-time high of 11,721 but is up a remarkable 52% year-to-date.
The peso extended its rally as USD/CLP closed at CLP 857.2, down CLP 4.3 on the session, with the dólar observado published at CLP 865.36 — copper above US$6/lb is doing the heavy lifting. COMEX copper rose 0.9% to US$6.05/lb as the metal continues to rewrite its price history, directly supporting Chilean equities and the fiscal outlook. Silver surged over 4% and gold firmed, confirming broad metals strength.
The MSCI index rebalance scheduled for Friday is already driving positioning, explaining elevated volumes and cross-trades between IPSA constituents ahead of the reconstitution. Earnings season continued with mixed results: Mallplaza fell 1.1% despite being the second-best IPSA performer in 2026 after Q4 numbers included one-off accounting gains, while CCU dropped 2.3% on disappointing quarterly figures.
Market Snapshot
| INDICATOR | VALUE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| IPSA Close | 11,133.28 | +1.29% |
| IPSA Weekly | 11,133.28 | +1.88% |
| IPSA YTD | — | +52.28% |
| ATH (Jan 28) | 11,721.38 | −5.0% |
| USD/CLP Spot Close | CLP 857.2 | −CLP 4.3 |
| Dólar Observado (Feb 25) | CLP 865.36 | — |
| BCCh TPM | 4.50% | Held (Dec −25bps) |
| Copper (COMEX) | US$6.05/lb | +0.9% |
| Gold | $5,210/oz | +0.7% |
| Silver | $90.75/oz | +4.2% |
| Brent Crude | $69.30/bbl | +0.7% |
| S&P 500 | 6,946.13 | +0.81% |
| DXY | 97.7 | −0.2% |
Equities & Corporate
SQM-B was the undisputed star, rallying 4.6% on massive volume after Zimbabwe — Africa’s largest lithium producer — suspended all raw mineral and concentrate exports with immediate effect, including shipments in transit. The ban, reported by Reuters, tightened supply expectations just as China’s post-Lunar New Year reopening reignited physical buying of lithium carbonate. Albemarle surged 8.1% in US pre-market, confirming the move was global, not Chile-specific. The Tianqi overhang (potential sale of its entire 22% SQM stake, later narrowed to 1.25% of series A shares) remains a latent risk but was ignored for the session.
Falabella gained 1.4% as retail sentiment improved, but Mallplaza slipped 1.1% despite posting the IPSA’s second-best performance in 2026 — its Q4 results included one-off accounting gains that the market discounted. CCU was among the worst performers, dropping 2.3% after quarterly numbers disappointed. The session was also shaped by pre-positioning for Friday’s MSCI rebalance, which explains the elevated CLP 210 billion turnover and heavy cross-trades between index constituents.
The IPSA’s four-day winning streak has recovered roughly half the ground lost during the early-February correction, when the Tianqi sale announcement and broader LatAm profit-taking dragged the index from its ATH of 11,721 down toward 10,700. With 72 all-time highs logged in 2025 and the best annual return in decades, the IPSA entered 2026 with enormous momentum that has survived the correction phase intact.
Currency & Monetary Policy
The peso strengthened for a second straight session as USD/CLP closed at CLP 857.2, down CLP 4.3, driven by copper above US$6/lb on the COMEX and a broadly softer dollar (DXY −0.2% to 97.7). The dólar observado published by the BCCh for February 25 was CLP 865.36, reflecting the previous session’s transactions. Analysts project the dollar could trade near CLP 840 by year-end 2026 if copper prices hold and political stability is maintained, with a range of CLP 820–850 in a bull case.
The BCCh’s TPM stands at 4.50% after a 25bps cut in December, with the board signaling that future moves depend on the inflation trajectory. The December IPoM projected headline CPI hitting the 3% target in Q1 2026, and the more favorable cost dynamics — particularly the peso’s appreciation and planned electricity tariff reductions in early 2026 — have reinforced that timeline. One board member notably floated a 50bps cut at the last meeting, keeping dovish expectations alive.
Investment has been the bright spot in Chile’s macro picture, with gross fixed capital formation growing above expectations driven by large mining and energy projects. The BCCh projects GFCF growth of 4.9% in 2026, down from an estimated 7% in 2025 but still robust. Private consumption, meanwhile, is forecast at 2.5% growth, supported by improving consumer confidence and real wage gains, though the unemployment rate remains above historical averages.
Technical Analysis — S&P IPSA Daily
The daily chart shows the IPSA recovering from its early-February correction, with Wednesday’s 1.29% rally pushing back above the Ichimoku cloud. Price opened at the low of the session (10,991.76), rallied to 11,149.63, and closed near highs at 11,133.28 — a bullish engulfing-style candle that suggests buyers are regaining control. The index is now testing the cluster of Ichimoku levels around 11,065–11,133, with the cloud offering immediate support below.
The RSI at 53.84/45.82 has crossed above the 50 midline for the first time since the correction began, a modest bullish signal. The MACD at −6.39/−27.94 is still negative but narrowing, with the histogram flattening — a potential bullish crossover is developing. The 200-day SMA at 9,365 remains well below, confirming the structural uptrend. Volume has been increasing on the rally days, a constructive divergence from the declining volume seen during the selloff.
Key Levels
| LEVEL | PRICE | SIGNIFICANCE |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 11,721 | All-time high (Jan 28) |
| Resistance 2 | 11,425 | Late-January breakdown level |
| Resistance 1 | 11,208 | Ichimoku cloud upper boundary |
| Current Close | 11,133 | — |
| Support 1 | 10,920 | Ichimoku cloud / Kijun-sen |
| Support 2 | 10,636 | Prior swing low / correction base |
| Support 3 | 9,365 | 200-day SMA |
Global Context & Commodities
Copper’s hold above US$6/lb on the COMEX is the single most important variable for Chile’s macro outlook. The metal has been rewriting its price history in 2026, driven by electrification demand, supply constraints, and now the Zimbabwe raw mineral export ban that extends beyond lithium to include other critical minerals. For Chile as the world’s largest copper producer, every cent above US$5 translates directly into higher fiscal revenues, stronger peso, and improved terms of trade.
Wall Street rallied for a second session — S&P 500 +0.81% to 6,946, Nasdaq +1.26% — ahead of Nvidia’s earnings after the close. The positive global risk tone helped LatAm broadly, with the IPSA ranking among the region’s best performers alongside the Colombian Colcap. Gold firmed to $5,210/oz and silver surged over 4% to $90.75/oz, confirming the broad metals rally that has characterized 2026. The DXY slipped 0.2% to 97.7 and remains structurally weaker year-over-year, supporting EM currencies and commodity-linked assets.
Looking Ahead
Friday’s MSCI rebalance is the immediate catalyst, likely to generate significant volume and potential price dislocations in index constituents as passive funds adjust positions. Nvidia’s earnings (after Wednesday’s US close) will set global tech sentiment. US Q4 GDP second estimate on Thursday and the PCE inflation print on Friday complete the macro calendar, with direct implications for Fed rate expectations and dollar dynamics.
Domestically, earnings season continues to move individual names. The Tianqi-SQM situation remains the key single-stock risk: the Chinese shareholder’s signaled intent to sell its full 22% stake (later narrowed to 1.25% of series A shares) could introduce supply pressure, but also opens the door to a new strategic partner that may be more amenable to the Codelco joint venture for Salar de Atacama lithium extraction.
The BCCh’s next rate decision will be closely watched for signals on whether the dovish minority (favoring a 50bps cut) gains traction. With inflation converging toward the 3% target and the peso strengthening, the case for further easing is building — lower rates would particularly benefit mall operators and consumer-facing equities that have been among the IPSA’s best performers in 2025–2026. Copper’s trajectory above US$6 remains the macro anchor: if it holds, the IPSA’s path back toward 11,700 is the base case.
The IPSA’s fourth consecutive gain tells a story of a market finding its footing after a healthy correction. SQM’s 4.6% surge on the Zimbabwe lithium ban and China’s return was the headline, but the broader picture is equally important: copper above US$6, the peso strengthening, and the BCCh signaling room for further cuts. The RSI’s cross above 50 and the Ichimoku cloud recapture are the first technical signs of trend resumption after the early-February selloff.
Risks are concentrated rather than systemic: Tianqi’s potential SQM stake sale is the largest single-stock overhang, and a copper reversal below US$5.50 would undercut the entire bull thesis. But with 52% year-to-date gains, a dovish central bank, and the MSCI rebalance providing Friday’s liquidity event, the IPSA’s structure remains bullish. The 11,208 Ichimoku cloud resistance is the immediate test — clear that, and the January highs near 11,425 come into play. The record at 11,721 is five good sessions away.