Chile Stocks Fall 1.88% With Zero Gainers in Hormuz Rout

01 Market Snapshot

02 Key Movers

03 Market Commentary

Thursday’s session on the Bolsa de Santiago was a comprehensive rout. The IPSA fell 1.88% to 10,298, erasing nearly all of Wednesday’s 2.42% relief rally in a single session. As Emol reported, “not a single IPSA stock was spared the losses” — a zero-gainer session that signals indiscriminate selling rather than sector rotation. The index opened at 10,495 and sold off to an intraday low of 10,224 before closing marginally above that level.

The session’s losers were concentrated in consumer-facing and transportation sectors. CencoMalls led at −5.29%, reflecting the vulnerability of retail real estate to the consumer spending slowdown that rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty are accelerating. Latam Airlines dropped 4.84% — the Hormuz crisis directly threatens aviation through elevated jet fuel costs, Middle East airspace closures, and the rerouting of long-haul flights. BCI fell 4.07% as the banking sector priced in uncertainty over the BCCh’s rate path in a world where the Hormuz oil premium threatens to reignite inflation just as the central bank was preparing to resume cuts.

The Chile-specific headwind is China. Beijing’s announcement of a 4.5–5.5% GDP growth target for 2026 — the lowest range since 1991 — struck directly at Chile’s economic model. Copper exports represent approximately half of Chile’s total exports, and China is the dominant buyer. The metal fell roughly 1% on Thursday, pressured by both dollar strength and the weaker Chinese growth outlook. For the IPSA, where SQM, Banco de Chile, and Falabella carry substantial weight, the copper narrative is not just a commodity story — it determines earnings, fiscal revenue, and monetary policy transmission.

The IPSA has now fallen 12.1% from its January 28 all-time high of 11,721.38. Earlier in the Hormuz crisis (March 3), the index briefly breached the psychologically important 10,000 level intraday, reaching 9,931.28 before recovering — a moment that wiped out all year-to-date gains. The index has since stabilized above 10,000 but remains extremely fragile, oscillating violently between relief rallies and renewed selloffs. Eight of Bloomberg’s 22 surveyed analysts said geopolitics would be the primary driver of Chilean bond yields in March.

04 Currency

The USD/CLP opened at 895.71, down 1.45% from the prior close of 908.92, interrupting four consecutive sessions of peso weakness. The dollar has gained 4.5% against the peso in the past week but remains 7.83% lower year-on-year, confirming that the structural peso appreciation trend — driven by elevated copper prices and the political confidence boost from the rightward shift in government — remains intact despite the Hormuz-related volatility.

Copper fell approximately 1% on the session, pressured by dollar strength (DXY +0.68% to 99.01) and China’s weaker GDP growth target. As Chile’s copper exports represent roughly half of total exports, the metal’s trajectory is the single most important FX driver. Bloomberg consensus projects the USD/CLP near CLP 840 by year-end 2026, assuming stable politics and sustained copper prices — a target that now appears optimistic given the Hormuz-driven uncertainty and Chinese deceleration. The BCCh TPM at 4.50% leaves the rate differential with the Fed (3.50–3.75%) compressed, limiting the carry-trade support for the peso.

05 Technical Analysis

Daily (1D):

Thursday’s candle was a strong bearish engulfing pattern. The index opened at 10,495 near the prior session’s close, briefly touched 10,592 at the high, and then sold off aggressively to close at 10,298 — just 74 points above the session low of 10,224. The long bearish body with a minimal upper wick and small lower wick signals that sellers controlled the session from early on, with no meaningful buying defense at any point.

The MACD is deeply negative: the histogram reads −80.595, with the MACD line at −84.042 and signal at −164.637 — all three components in negative territory and deteriorating. This confirms a sustained bearish trend that has been in place since the all-time high of 11,721.38 on January 28. RSI at 41.66 is approaching the 40 level, with the secondary reading at 34.19 already in oversold territory. The combination of deeply negative MACD and near-oversold RSI suggests that the sell-off is mature but not yet exhausted. The 200-day SMA at approximately 9,434 remains the secular anchor, 8.4% below the current close, confirming the long-term uptrend is structurally intact.

06 Forward Look

U.S. Payroll — Friday, March 6:

The February jobs report is the week’s macro anchor. A strong number reinforces the Fed’s hold posture, strengthens the dollar, and pressures the peso and copper simultaneously. A soft reading reopens rate-cut expectations, weakens the dollar, and provides dual relief to the peso and the IPSA through both FX and commodity channels.

BCCh March Decision:

The market expects a 25bp cut to 4.25% at the next BCCh meeting. The minutes from the last meeting confirmed one board member proposed a 50bp cut, signaling a dovish undercurrent within the council. However, the Hormuz oil spike threatens to reignite imported inflation through energy costs, which could force the BCCh to delay or scale back the expected cut. The tension between the growth-supportive case for easing and the inflation risk from oil is the central policy dilemma for the Chilean market.

Copper and China:

China’s lower GDP growth target (4.5–5.5%) is the medium-term headwind. Copper at approximately $4.45/lb remains historically elevated, supported by structural demand from electrification and energy transition. But the near-term risk is that Chinese demand disappoints the consensus, dragging copper below $4.00 and removing the key pillar supporting both the IPSA and the peso. Cochilco’s 2026 copper forecast of $4.45–$4.55/lb assumes stable Chinese demand — an assumption that Thursday’s GDP target revision puts under pressure.

Hormuz Resolution:

Chile is a net energy importer, making it one of the LatAm markets most negatively exposed to a sustained Hormuz closure. Elevated Brent prices feed directly into CPI through fuel and transport costs, threatening the disinflation trend that underpins the BCCh’s easing bias. The diplomatic signal from Tehran needs to translate into concrete de-escalation for Chile to re-access the rate-cut runway.

Verdict

Thursday’s 1.88% selloff with zero gainers was the clearest expression of the IPSA’s vulnerability to the current multi-layered risk environment. The index is not just responding to Hormuz — it is repricing the convergence of geopolitical risk, Chinese deceleration, copper fragility, and the threat that the BCCh’s rate-cut path will be disrupted by imported energy inflation. The fact that no single IPSA constituent escaped the session in positive territory confirms broad-based institutional selling, not sector-specific repositioning.

Technically, the close at 10,298 sits just 74 points above the session low, signaling unresolved selling pressure. The MACD histogram at −80.6 is deeply negative and deteriorating, while RSI at 41.66/34.19 is approaching oversold. The 200-day SMA at 9,434 remains 8.4% below, confirming the secular uptrend is intact. The IPSA has shed 12.1% from its January 28 ATH of 11,721 — a correction that is deeper and faster than the 2025 pullbacks. The 10,000 psychological level, briefly breached on March 3, is the critical support that must hold to prevent a structural downshift.

Bias: BEARISH — maintained. The index is 12% off its ATH, the MACD is deeply negative, RSI is descending, and the dual headwinds of Chinese deceleration and Hormuz energy risk directly threaten Chile’s copper-dependent model. A recovery above 10,540 (Bollinger midline) with copper stabilizing above $4.40 turns bias Neutral. A confirmed close below 10,000 targets the 9,600 EMA cluster.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All data sourced from BCS, TradingView, Investing.com, Infobae, Emol, Diario Financiero, BioBioChile, BCCh, Cochilco, Bloomberg, and La Tercera. Verify all figures independently before making investment decisions.

Read More from The Rio Times

• Latin American Pulse for Friday, March 6, 2026
• Chile IPSA Rebounds +2.40% to 10,495 as Copper Firms and Peso Strengthens
• Latin American Pulse for Thursday, March 5, 2026