S&P IPSA / BCS Daily Report · March 5, 2026 · Covering March 4 Session
The Big Three
IPSA surges +2.40% to 10,494.97 — snapping a four-day, 7.9% losing streak — after Tuesday’s dramatic intraday breach of 10,000 points, the index’s deepest single-session plunge since Boric’s 2021 election victory. The session opened at exactly Tuesday’s close of 10,248.96 and climbed to a high of 10,500.52, recovering all but a fraction of the session’s range before closing at 10,494.97. The catalyst was the NYT back-channel report of Iran-U.S. talks, which lifted global risk appetite and halted the four-session cascade that had taken the IPSA from 11,057 to 10,248 — a cumulative loss of 7.3% in peso terms and approximately 13% adjusted for the currency’s swing against the dollar.
Peso strengthens sharply: USD/CLP closes at $895.12 (−$13.80), its best session in five days, as copper rebounded to $5.87/lb and risk-off dollar demand faded after the Iran back-channel report. The peso had closed at $907.42 on March 3 and briefly opened Wednesday above $908 before the DXY reversed from its intraday high of 99.32. The peso’s recovery is structurally significant: Chile imports nearly all its petroleum, making a weaker dollar and higher copper a twin tailwind — lower imported inflation pressure and improved export revenue. The dollar is still up 4.43% over the past seven sessions, underscoring the scale of the Iran shock, though it remains down 7.89% year-over-year.
Macro picture complicates the recovery narrative: Imacec fell −0.1% in January, unemployment rose to 8.3%, and the Bank of Chile holds its TPM at 4.50% — but the market is pricing a 25 bp cut at the mid-March meeting. The weak Imacec was driven by a 1.5% decline in goods production (lower copper output after El Teniente disruptions) and no growth in services. Combined with 8.3% unemployment and inflation at 2.8% annual — below the BCCh’s 3% target — analysts see the macro backdrop as tilted toward further easing, even as energy-driven inflation risks from the Iran conflict complicate the timing. The consensus in the January Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) points to TPM at 4.25% by year-end.
Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Change / Note |
| IPSA Close (BCS) | 10,494.970 | +2.40% |
| Session High | 10,500.520 | intraday |
| Session Low | 10,248.960 | = prior close (open) |
| Prior Close (Mar 3) | 10,248.960 | −2.90% |
| All-Time High (Jan 28) | 11,721.380 | −10.5% current |
| USD/CLP (close Mar 4) | $895.12 | −$13.80 |
| USD/CLP (close Mar 3) | $908.92 | +2.88% vs Mar 2 |
| Copper (COMEX Mar 4) | $5.8675/lb | +1.21% |
| BCCh TPM | 4.50% | held Jan 27; cut expected Mar |
| Imacec (Jan 2026) | −0.1% YoY | goods −1.5%, mining weak |
| Unemployment (Jan 2026) | 8.3% | RM at 9.0% |
| S&P 500 (Mar 3) | 6,816.63 | −0.94% |
Equities — Key Movers
| Stock | Mar 3 Change | Note |
| Latam Airlines (LTM) | −5.42% | worst in IPSA; oil cost pressure |
| Banco Santander (BSANTANDER) | −3.90% | financials sold off broadly |
| Banco de Chile (CHILE) | −3.20% | global risk-off hit banks |
| SQM-B | ~−3.0% | lithium under pressure; high ponderación |
| Falabella (FALABELLA) | −2.80% | retail / consumer discretionary |
| Cencosud (CENCOSUD) | −2.50% | retail selloff; regional exposure |
| Enel Chile (ENELCHILE) | flat / resilient | utilities defensive amid Iran shock |
| Parque Arauco (PARAUCO) | YTD best (+111.86%) | top YTD performer in IPSA |
Mar 3 individual stock moves from DF/BioBioChile. Mar 4 session (recovery day) broad-based advance consistent with +2.40% index gain. YTD figure from TradingView.
Currency & Macro
The peso’s recovery on March 4 — USD/CLP falling from $908.92 to $895.12, a 1.52% strengthening — was the most telling single data point of the session. The DXY had touched an intraday high of 99.32 before reversing as the NYT back-channel Iran-U.S. report softened safe-haven demand. For Chile, currency direction matters doubly: as a net oil importer that imports virtually all its petroleum, a stronger peso mechanically reduces imported energy inflation, which the Bank of Chile is watching closely ahead of its mid-March meeting. Over the prior seven sessions, the dollar had gained 4.43% against the peso — a substantial shock that Diario Financiero noted pushed Chile’s 2026 YTD IPSA return to briefly negative territory when adjusted for exchange-rate moves.
Copper’s bounce to $5.87/lb (+1.21%) on March 4 was the second key tailwind. The metal had fallen under pressure earlier in the week as the Iran conflict boosted the dollar and raised manufacturing demand risks, but recovered as China’s “Two Sessions” began on March 4 — the annual National People’s Congress convention expected to set economic targets and publish the 15th Five-Year Plan. Cochilco projects Chile’s 2026 average copper price at $4.95/lb, and while the current level comfortably exceeds that baseline, the volatility of the past week — swinging from a near-record $6.00 to $5.70 and back — underscores the commodity’s sensitivity to the geopolitical environment.
On the domestic macro front, the picture remains mixed. The Imacec for January came in at −0.1% year-over-year — Chile’s first monthly contraction in recent months — driven by a 1.5% decline in goods production (lower copper output following El Teniente disruptions and one fewer working day) and flat services. Unemployment rose to 8.3% nationally (9.0% in Greater Santiago) in January, above consensus. Annual CPI stands at 2.8%, below the BCCh’s 3% target. This combination — weak activity, rising unemployment, below-target inflation — is broadly supportive of the market’s base case: a 25 basis-point cut to 4.25% at the March meeting, with the EEE survey consensus pointing to 4.25% as the year-end TPM level.
Technical Analysis
The daily chart tells a story of a deeply oversold index staging its first genuine recovery candle after four sessions of unrelenting selling. The session produced a strong green candle spanning 10,248 to 10,495 — effectively reclaiming Tuesday’s entire decline in a single session — though the index still sits below a dense cluster of moving averages that now constitute near-term overhead resistance: 10,418 (lowest MA), 10,540, 10,683, 10,791, and 10,826 at the top. This MA cluster, which the IPSA had sat comfortably above as recently as late January, now acts as a ceiling the index must retake to restore the prior uptrend.
The MACD remains deeply in bearish territory: the histogram is at −63.893 and the signal lines sit at −73.016 and −136.909. While the histogram began turning less negative on the recovery session — a potential early sign of momentum loss to the downside — the underlying lines have not yet crossed or even narrowed materially, meaning no technical buy signal has triggered. RSI tells a similar story: the fast line at 42.22 and the slow line at 38.05 are both approaching the oversold threshold near 30, which historically has coincided with IPSA bottoms. The fast RSI’s stabilization and mild uptick on March 4 is the first hint of exhaustion in selling momentum.
The Ichimoku cloud structure has been decisively broken. The index now trades below both the cloud bottom and the conversion/base lines — all bearish in trend-following terms. The critical structural support is the long-term ascending blue trendline currently at approximately 9,425, which has held every major correction since mid-2025. A test of that trendline — roughly 10% below the March 4 close — would only occur if the Iran conflict escalates materially and global risk-off conditions intensify. For now, the immediate priority is reclaiming the 10,500–10,540 zone, followed by the full MA cluster above 10,683.
Key Levels
| Level | Price | Significance |
| R5 | 11,721 | All-time high (Jan 28, 2026) |
| R4 | 10,826 | Highest MA on chart (overhead ceiling) |
| R3 | 10,683–10,791 | MA cluster zone (mid-resistance) |
| R2 | 10,540 | Lower MA resistance / Ichimoku region |
| R1 | 10,500 | Session high; immediate resistance |
| ▶ CURRENT | 10,494.97 | Mar 4 close |
| S1 | 10,248 | Mar 3 close / Mar 4 open |
| S2 | 10,000 | Psychological level; breached intraday Mar 3 |
| S3 | 9,931 | Mar 3 intraday low (worst level since Dec 2021) |
| S4 | 9,425 | Long-term ascending blue trendline (chart) |
Global Context
Chile sits at an uncomfortable intersection of the Iran shock’s competing forces. As a net oil importer, higher Brent acts as a direct tax on the Chilean economy — raising transport costs, imported inflation, and compressing the margin for BCCh rate cuts. At the same time, copper — Chile’s economic anchor — has been more resilient than feared, trading above $5.80/lb even at the shock’s peak, because the demand narrative from China’s Two Sessions offsets manufacturing risk concerns. The net result is a country uniquely exposed to both sides of the ledger: hurt by expensive energy, partially cushioned by elevated copper.
The U.S.-Iran conflict has now entered its fifth day, with President Trump expressing ambivalence about the trajectory of the strikes — noting concern that regime change could produce leadership “as troubling as the previous.” Market participants took this as a signal of potential off-ramps, which drove the DXY reversal from 99.32 and the risk-on rotation that benefited LATAM equities broadly on March 4. The NYT back-channel report — U.S. and Iranian officials in indirect contact — was the immediate catalyst for the afternoon rally. Separately, China‘s National People’s Congress began its “Two Sessions” gathering on March 4, which the market is watching for economic growth targets and the 15th Five-Year Plan, both potential copper demand tailwinds.
In the broader LATAM context, Chile’s correction has been notably sharper than peers: DF reported that Santiago was the only major LATAM bourse whose 2026 YTD return turned negative during the Iran shock. The index is more exposed to risk-off USD demand (oil importer, no hedge) and to global growth fears (copper demand) than Argentina (oil producer) or Mexico (nearshoring beneficiary). The KOSPI in Seoul was separately cited as suffering its worst-ever single-day decline during the same period, underscoring that the geopolitical shock was global, not regional.
Looking Ahead
The Bank of Chile’s March meeting is the most immediate domestic catalyst. The consensus expectation — a 25 bp cut to 4.25% — has been reinforced by the weak Imacec, rising unemployment, and below-target inflation. However, the Iran-shock channel through Brent to domestic energy prices creates a complicating factor: if oil remains elevated, inflation risks importing pressure that could delay or reduce the magnitude of the cut. The BCCh’s January communication acknowledged the copper rally and improving global financial conditions, but the shock since late February fundamentally changes the risk balance — and markets will closely read the March statement for updated IPoM-style language on energy pass-through.
Technically, the IPSA must first reclaim the 10,500–10,540 resistance zone to confirm that March 4’s bounce is more than a dead-cat recovery. The next significant hurdle is the 10,683–10,791 MA cluster — roughly 2–3% above current levels. A sustained recovery to that zone, with improving MACD histogram and RSI crossing back above 50, would signal re-engagement by trend-following buyers. The structural case remains intact: Cochilco’s $4.95/lb copper forecast, a right-leaning incoming government supportive of investment and deregulation, and Morgan Stanley’s 12-month IPSA target of 13,700 points (reaffirmed recently) are the medium-term anchors.
Corporate earnings season re-enters the picture this week and next: results from Enel Chile, Empresas Copec, CCU, Mallplaza, and Falabella are due over the coming days. These reports will provide the first hard data on how Chilean companies weathered Q4 2025 and how they frame 2026 guidance in the context of a geopolitically volatile energy environment. High-weight names like Latam Airlines — already down sharply on fuel cost concerns — will be particularly scrutinized.
Verdict
CAUTIOUSLY CONSTRUCTIVE — BOUNCE CONFIRMED, TREND NOT YET RESTORED
Wednesday’s +2.40% session is the cleanest green day in five, and it arrived on the back of a genuine macro catalyst — not just a technical bounce from oversold conditions. The DXY reversal, copper’s resilience above $5.80, and the Iran back-channel report all align to create a constructive day-one recovery signal. Chile’s dual sensitivity — hurt by expensive oil, helped by elevated copper — means the balance of risk has improved modestly but not resolved.
The technical picture demands patience. MACD lines remain deeply negative, RSI has not yet crossed 50, and the entire moving average cluster from 10,418 to 10,826 sits overhead — the index must navigate through all of that before the trend can be called restored. The 9,425 long-term trendline is the line in the sand: a test there would only arise from a second, escalatory leg in the Iran conflict. That remains possible but is not the base case.
Near-term watch: 10,540 resistance reclaim as confirmation of follow-through; BCCh March cut as a domestic catalyst; China Two Sessions copper demand guidance; Iran conflict de-escalation trajectory. The structural bull case — copper above $5.50, incoming pro-market government, earnings recovery — remains fundamentally intact. The question is whether geopolitics permits the market to re-engage with it.