The Big Three
The IPSA closed with a marginal 0.16% gain at 10,314.03, but the week told a devastating story: −5.2%, the worst since March 2023. Monday’s 3% crash — the worst since the “Day of Liberation” of April 2025 — set the tone, with Falabella (−6.2%), Latam (−5.5%), and Bci (−4.8%) leading the carnage. Friday’s session saw Mallplaza (+2.6%), CMPC (+1.9%), Banco de Chile (+1.6%), and SQM-B (+1.6%) mount a modest recovery.
Brent crude surged past $100/bbl on Sunday, topping $114 — a direct threat to Chile as a net energy importer. Unlike Colombia and Argentina, which benefit from higher oil prices, Chile’s economy faces unambiguous headwinds: higher import costs, inflationary pressure, and a potential delay to the Banco Central’s easing cycle. Before the Iran war, markets had widely expected a rate cut from the current 4.75%; that bet has now weakened significantly.
The peso weakened sharply against the dollar, with USD/CLP rising approximately 3.3% weekly to around 910. Copper, Chile’s key export, has been caught between rising geopolitical risk (negative) and potential supply disruptions (supportive). The net effect has been negative for the peso, as the global flight to the dollar overwhelms commodity tailwinds. Asia opened Monday in freefall — Nikkei −7%, KOSPI −8% — pointing to more selling pressure ahead.
01 Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Change |
| S&P IPSA Close | 10,314.03 | +0.16% |
| IPSA Weekly | — | −5.2% |
| IPSA ATH (Jan 28) | 11,627.58 | −11.3% from ATH |
| USD/CLP (est.) | ~910 | +3.3% w/w est. |
| BCCh Policy Rate | 4.75% | Cut expectations fading |
| Brent Crude (Sunday) | ~$107.50 | +16% overnight |
| Brent Crude (Fri Close) | $92.69 | +8.52% |
| S&P 500 | 6,740.02 | −1.33% |
| VIX | 29.49 | +24.17% |
| DXY | 98.92 | −0.12% |
| Gold (spot, Mar 6) | $5,097/oz | +2.0% |
02 Key Movers
| Stock | Change | Note |
| Mallplaza | +2.6% | Friday’s session leader; real estate recovery play |
| CMPC | +1.9% | Forestry/pulp sector rebound |
| Banco de Chile | +1.6% | Banking sector partial recovery |
| SQM-B | +1.6% | Lithium bounce after volatile week |
| Falabella (weekly) | −6.2% | Monday crash leader; retail under pressure |
| Latam Airlines (weekly) | −5.5% | Oil cost surge hits airline economics |
03 Market Commentary
Friday’s marginal +0.16% close at 10,314.03 was a small mercy for the Bolsa de Santiago after one of its most brutal weeks in years. The IPSA shed 5.2% over five sessions — its worst weekly performance since March 2023 — as the US-Israeli war on Iran sent shockwaves through global markets. The index opened Friday at 10,297.93, tested a low of 10,138.55 before recovering to close at 10,314.03, with the high of 10,418.73 showing that buyers briefly emerged but couldn’t sustain conviction.
The week’s trajectory was a rollercoaster. Monday’s 3% crash to 10,549 was the worst session since the “Day of Liberation” of April 2025, according to Diario Financiero, with Falabella (−6.2%), Latam (−5.5%), and Bci (−4.8%) leading the selloff. Wednesday brought a 2.4% bounce to 10,495 led by Bci (+8.1%), Cenco Malls (+6.3%), and CMPC (+4.9%), before Thursday’s 1.9% decline wiped out half the recovery. Javier Pizarro, head of Research at Banchile Corredores, explained that “higher oil prices affect global growth expectations, particularly for importing countries, and increase inflation estimates.”
Among Latin American markets for the week, only Peru and Mexico performed worse than Chile. The Colombian Colcap and the Argentine Merval also fell, but less severely. The IPSA now sits 11.3% below its all-time high of 11,627.58 from late January, a stark reversal from what had been the Chilean market’s best year since 1993.
04 Currency
The peso was battered by the Iran conflict. USD/CLP surged from approximately 882 at the start of the week to around 907–910 by week’s end, a depreciation of roughly 3.3%. On Tuesday March 3, the dollar spiked 2.88% in a single session to 907.42, the sharpest daily move in months. Wednesday brought some relief as USD/CLP retreated to 895.12 (−1.52%), but the peso gave back those gains by Friday.
For Chile, the exchange rate dynamics are dominated by two forces: copper prices and oil. As a net energy importer, higher oil prices are unambiguously negative for the Chilean current account and for inflation expectations. Copper, while potentially supported by supply disruption fears, has been pressured by broader risk-off flows and China growth concerns (Beijing set a 4.5–5% GDP target). Analyst consensus projects USD/CLP near 840 by year-end (Bloomberg), but the Iran war has thrown those estimates into question. The DXY at 98.92, its strongest weekly close since mid-January, adds further headwind.
05 Technical Analysis
Daily (1D):
Friday’s candle (O: 10,297.93, H: 10,418.73, L: 10,138.55, C: 10,314.03) was a modest bullish session with a long lower wick extending to 10,138.55, showing that buyers emerged after the intraday dip. The close above the open is constructive but the candle body was small relative to the week’s range. Price sits below all visible moving averages, with the Bollinger Bands widening to the downside.
The MACD is firmly negative: the MACD line at −79.33, signal at −103.87, and histogram at −183.20 — all well below zero and confirming bearish momentum. The RSI reads 41.10 with the slow component at 34.77, approaching the oversold zone but not yet at the extreme levels (sub-30) that typically precede strong reversals. The 200-day SMA sits far below at approximately 9,443.87, meaning the longer-term trend remains solidly bullish despite the sharp correction. The index needs to reclaim the 10,540–10,662 resistance cluster (mid-Bollinger / declining MAs) to signal any meaningful recovery.
| Level | Points | Reference |
| R3 | 10,828.18 | Upper Bollinger / swing high |
| R2 | 10,661.96 | Mid-Bollinger / MA cluster |
| R1 | 10,540.46 | Declining MA / immediate resistance |
| Close | 10,314.03 | Mar 7 close |
| S1 | 10,253.19 | Lower Bollinger band |
| S2 | 10,000 | Psychological / intraweek support |
| 200-Day SMA | 9,443.87 | Long-term trend support |
06 Forward Look
Oil Shock — Chile’s Vulnerability:
Chile is the most exposed market in our Latin American coverage to higher oil prices. As a net energy importer, Brent above $100 directly increases the import bill, widens the current account deficit, and puts upward pressure on CPI. The Banco Central’s rate at 4.75% was expected to be cut further, but as Redimin noted, “a higher oil price puts pressure on the inflation trajectory” and the rate-cut path has now lost conviction. Kpler analysts warn oil could reach $120–$150 if the Hormuz disruption persists.
Copper and the Peso:
Copper remains the key variable for the Chilean peso. The metal faces cross-currents: geopolitical supply disruption fears are supportive, but risk-off sentiment and weaker China growth expectations (4.5–5% target) are headwinds. Bloomberg and analyst consensus had projected USD/CLP near 840 by year-end, but the Iran war has likely pushed that estimate higher. The peso’s ~3.3% weekly depreciation puts it well above the pre-conflict range.
US Macro Calendar — Week of March 10:
US CPI (Wednesday), housing data (Thursday), and Q4 GDP plus PCE deflator (Friday) dominate the macro calendar. Hot inflation readings would reinforce the DXY and pressure EM currencies including the peso. The US payrolls shock (−92,000 jobs) opens the door to a Fed rate cut as early as June, which could provide some EM relief.
Global Contagion:
Asia’s Monday carnage — Nikkei −7%, KOSPI −8% (circuit breaker), S&P 500 futures −1.7% — signals another ugly opening for the BCS. The IPSA’s attempt at stabilization on Friday is likely to be tested immediately. The 10,000 psychological level, briefly touched intraday earlier in the week, could come back into play.
Verdict
The IPSA’s 5.2% weekly loss — worst since March 2023 — reflects Chile’s acute vulnerability to the oil shock. Unlike Colombia and Argentina, where energy-sector equities provide a partial hedge, Chile’s import-dependent economy faces higher costs across the board: fuel, transport, and intermediate goods. The Banco Central’s rate-cut path, previously a key tailwind for equities, is now in doubt. Technically, the MACD histogram at −183.20 and RSI at 34.77 (slow) approach but have not yet reached extreme oversold levels, suggesting more downside is possible.
The index is now 11.3% below its January ATH of 11,627.58 but remains well above the 200-day SMA at 9,443.87 (8.4% below), keeping the longer-term bullish structure intact. The 10,000 psychological level, tested intraweek, is the key line in the sand. If it holds, the IPSA can rebuild from these levels once the geopolitical shock dissipates; if it breaks, the next meaningful support cluster is near 9,400–9,500.
Bias: BEARISH — the 5.2% weekly loss, negative MACD, fading BCCh rate-cut expectations, and Chile’s oil-import vulnerability outweigh Friday’s modest bounce. A recovery above 10,540 (R1) with Brent below $90 turns bias Neutral. A break below 10,000 targets the 200-SMA at 9,444.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All data sourced from BCS, TradingView, Diario Financiero, Redimin, Investing.com, Infobae, Bloomberg Línea, Banco Central de Chile, and other public sources. Verify all figures independently before making investment decisions.