CPI Day
The Ibovespa surged 1.40% to 183,447 — its second consecutive gain and highest close since March 3 — as the de-escalation trade gained traction. Brent settled around $88, down sharply from Monday’s $98.96 settlement, as Trump threatened Iran “20 times harder” if oil stops flowing while simultaneously signaling the war could end soon. The IEA convened an emergency meeting to discuss the largest-ever coordinated SPR release. Energy Secretary Chris Wright briefly posted — then deleted — a claim that the US Navy had escorted a tanker through Hormuz, causing an intraday whipsaw before the White House clarified no escort had occurred. Iran is reportedly deploying mines in the Strait.
The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Tuesday, forecast Brent above $95/b for the next two months before falling below $80 in Q3 2026 and ~$70 by year-end — a view predicated on the assumption that Hormuz transit resumes gradually. US gas prices hit $3.54/gallon, the highest since mid-2024 and up 21% in a month.
In New York, the S&P 500 slipped 0.21% to 6,781, the Dow dipped 0.07%, and the Nasdaq was essentially flat (+0.01%). Nine of eleven S&P sectors closed lower, with energy leading the decline as oil prices retreated. Chip stocks rallied on strong TSMC sales data (Nvidia +1.2%, Micron +3.5%, Intel +2.6%). Gold staged a powerful reversal, surging ~2.4% to ~$5,228 after Monday’s liquidity-driven selloff — reclaiming losses and then some. The VIX fell to 24.93 (−2.24%).
Today is CPI day. The February Consumer Price Index drops at 08:30 ET — pre-oil-shock data, but the last major inflation reading before both the FOMC (March 17–18) and Copom (March 17–18) next week. Any above-consensus print hardens the stagflation narrative; a soft print gives both central banks statistical cover to cut. The DXY fell to 98.63 (−0.55%), its weakest close in the war period, as EUR/USD extended gains to 1.1645. The real continued strengthening to ~R$5.16, maintaining its position as the best-performing EM currency of the crisis.
Three Things That Matter
| Tuesday | Ibovespa +1.40% to 183,447 (high: 185,324). Brent ~$88 (down from $98.96 Monday settle). S&P 500 −0.21% to 6,781. Gold +2.4% to ~$5,228 (reversal). VIX 24.93 (−2.24%). DXY 98.63 (−0.55%). USD/BRL ~R$5.16. IEA calls emergency meeting on largest-ever SPR release. EIA STEO: Brent >$95 next 2 months, <$80 by Q3. Chris Wright deleted Hormuz escort post — White House says no escorts yet. Iran deploying mines. Europe rallied: DAX +2.39%, FTSE +1.59% |
| Oil | Brent has fallen ~25% from Monday’s $119.50 intraday peak to ~$88. EIA STEO assumes gradual Hormuz reopening — if wrong, $95+ floor holds. IEA emergency SPR meeting could be the largest coordinated release ever. JPMorgan’s 10% S&P correction warning if oil stays triple digits. US gas at $3.54/gallon (+21% in a month). Trump threatening Iran over Hormuz while claiming war nearly over — contradictory signals keeping volatility elevated |
| Today | US CPI (Feb, 08:30 ET) — the marquee event. Pre-oil data but last print before FOMC/Copom next week. Oracle earnings after close. IPCA (Feb, IBGE) tomorrow. War Day 12. Brent futures ~$88–90. S&P futures flat to slightly positive |
Where We Left Off TUESDAY, MAR 10 — B3 CLOSE
The Ibovespa extended its recovery for a second straight session, climbing 1.40% to 183,447 on volume of R$23.2 billion (above the 50-day average of R$21.8 billion). The index briefly topped 185,000 intraday (high: 185,324) before paring gains as US equities reversed in the final hour on mixed Hormuz signals. Rumo and retail names led the advance; Petrobras pulled back as Brent fell from Monday’s settlement of $98.96 toward $88. MRV and rate-sensitive names continued under pressure.
The session’s volatility was driven by a cascade of conflicting signals. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the US Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz — oil dropped and stocks rallied. The post was then deleted, and the White House clarified no escorts had yet occurred. Oil bounced off lows while stocks came off highs. Meanwhile, CNN reported Iran had begun deploying mines in the Strait, and Trump threatened to hit Iran “20 times harder” if oil flow is disrupted. The IEA convened an emergency meeting of its 30+ member countries to discuss the largest-ever coordinated SPR release.
In New York, the S&P 500 fell 0.21% to 6,781.48 after initially rallying on the Wright post before reversing. The Dow shed 34 points (−0.07%) to 47,706.51. The Nasdaq was flat at 22,697.10 (+0.01%), supported by chip stocks following strong TSMC data. European markets rallied sharply: DAX +2.39%, FTSE +1.59%, CAC +1.79% — catching up to the de-escalation trade that US markets had priced Monday afternoon.
Gold staged a powerful reversal, surging ~2.4% to ~$5,228 after Monday’s margin-call-driven selloff to ~$5,092. Silver jumped 6.25% to $89.81. The 10-year Treasury yield continued falling, touching ~3.96% intraday — a flight-to-quality move as recession fears compete with oil inflation. The DXY weakened to 98.63 (−0.55%), and EUR/USD extended to 1.1645. The VIX fell to 24.93 (−2.24%), its lowest since the war began but still elevated.
Market Snapshot DATA AS OF TUE, MAR 10 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 183,447 | +1.40% |
| USD/BRL | ~R$5.16 | −0.08% |
| S&P 500 | 6,781 | −0.21% |
| Nasdaq | 22,697 | +0.01% |
| 10Y Treasury | ~4.05% | −5 bps |
| Gold (Spot) | ~$5,228 | +2.44% |
| Brent Crude | ~$88 | −11.08% |
| Iron Ore (62%) | ~$112 | −1.75% |
| DXY | 98.63 | −0.55% |
What to Watch WEDNESDAY CATALYSTS
February CPI at 08:30 ET is the session’s anchor event. Consensus expects +0.3% MoM headline and +0.3% core. This is pre-oil-shock data — the collection period ended before $100 Brent — so even a benign print will be overshadowed by the knowledge that energy costs are already 20–50% higher than what February captured. A hot print (core above +0.4%) would formally close the door on a March FOMC cut and add pressure to the Copom’s decision. A soft print gives both central banks room to maneuver and likely sends the Ibovespa toward the 185,000 level again.
The IEA emergency meeting is the key oil catalyst. If the agency recommends the largest-ever coordinated SPR release (potentially 100+ million barrels), Brent could fall toward $80 and equities would rally hard. If the meeting produces vague language without concrete commitments — like Monday’s G7 statement — oil rebounds toward $95. The WSJ reportedly ran a story late Tuesday about the IEA meeting, which may influence overnight oil prices.
Domestically, the IGP-M first preview for March showed −0.19% (vs −0.49% in the February equivalent) — a deceleration in the wholesale deflation trend. Tomorrow brings the main event for Copom: the IBGE’s IPCA (February) at 09:00 BRT. Oracle reports earnings after the close.
Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS
The Ibovespa closed Tuesday at 183,447 (+1.40%). Daily RSI reads 50.60 (MA: 59.12) — the first close above 50 since the war began, signaling a shift from bearish to neutral momentum. MACD histogram turned positive at 2,707 (MACD: −1,645, signal: 1,062). The 50-day SMA at ~184,640 is now within arm’s reach — Tuesday’s intraday high of 185,324 briefly pierced it.
Resistance: 184,640 (50-day SMA) → 185,324 (Tuesday’s high) → 186,241 (Feb 9 close) → 187,000 (round number target).
Support: 183,000 (round number/consolidation) → 180,915 (Monday’s close) → 179,531 (intermediate SMA) → 174,965 (200-day SMA).
Two consecutive up days with expanding volume (R$23.2B vs the 50-day R$21.8B average) and RSI crossing 50 create a constructive setup. The key test is the 50-day SMA at ~184,640 — a sustained close above it would confirm the war correction is over. A soft CPI print today could provide the catalyst. If CPI is hot, the Ibovespa likely retests 182,000–183,000 support before the Copom. Bias: constructive above 183,000 with the 50-day SMA as the immediate target.
Copom Watch NEXT MEETING: MAR 17-18 · T−7 DAYS
The Selic sits at 15.00% with 7 days to Copom. The landscape has shifted materially since Monday: Brent has fallen from ~$119 to ~$88, the Focus IPCA held at 3.91%, and the real has strengthened to R$5.16. The DI curve on Tuesday showed only modest steepening of 1 bp, suggesting the market is re-anchoring toward a cut scenario rather than a hold.
Two data points will define the Copom outcome: today’s US CPI (which sets the global rate backdrop and DXY direction) and tomorrow’s Brazilian IPCA (February). If both come in benign, the 50 bps cut is the base case. If either surprises hawkishly, the BCB may opt for a more cautious 25 bps.
The EIA STEO’s assumption that Brent falls below $80 by Q3 is dovish for the Copom if internalized by the market. It suggests the oil shock is transitory — which is exactly the framing the BCB needs to justify beginning the easing cycle on schedule. The Petrobras diesel gap (R$2.74/liter) remains a latent risk but has not yet triggered a price adjustment.
Economic Calendar WEDNESDAY, MAR 11
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| All Day | Iran-US War Day 12 — IEA emergency meeting on SPR release could be the largest ever. Iran mining the Strait. Chris Wright’s deleted escort post created confusion. Trump threatening Iran while claiming war nearly over. Brent ~$88–90 | HIGH |
| 08:30 ET | US CPI (Feb) — Cons: +0.3% MoM headline, +0.3% core. Pre-oil-shock data but critical for FOMC framing. Hot print closes March cut door and pressures EM assets. Soft print supports Copom cut and risk rally | HIGH |
| 10:30 ET | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Official inventory data; watch for draws in crude and product stocks indicating supply tightness from Hormuz disruption | MEDIUM |
| 13:00 ET | US 10-Year Note Auction — Critical test of demand in a falling-yield environment; bid-to-cover and tail will show investor appetite for duration amid stagflation concerns | MEDIUM |
| After Close | Oracle (ORCL) Earnings — Bellwether for enterprise cloud spending amid AI buildout cycle | LOW |
| MAR 12 | Brazil IPCA (Feb, IBGE) — The most critical domestic data point before Copom. Previous: +0.84% MoM / 4.44% YoY. Determines whether the 50 bps cut is confirmed or downsized | HIGH |
| MAR 17–18 | Copom + FOMC Meetings — Both decide same week. Market baseline: BCB 50 bps cut to 14.50%, Fed hold. CPI and IPCA this week set the final inputs | HIGH |
Latin America Markets TUESDAY CLOSE
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 183,447 | +1.40% | 50.60 | Neutral |
| IPC (Mexico) | 67,398 | +0.76% | 40.47 | OS Watch |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,273 | +2.11% | 44.25 | Neutral |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,605 | +1.69% | 41.13 | Neutral |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 2,700,255 | +2.56% | 36.58 | Oversold |
All five LatAm indices closed green on Tuesday — the first synchronized rally since the war began. MERVAL led at +2.56%, followed by COLCAP +2.11%, IPSA +1.69%, Ibovespa +1.40%, and IPC +0.76%. The RSI picture is improving: Ibovespa crossed 50 (neutral from bearish), COLCAP at 44.25 and IPSA at 41.13 exited oversold territory, and IPC at 40.47 is climbing. Only MERVAL (36.58) remains technically oversold despite the rally — suggesting more room for bounce if de-escalation holds.
The de-escalation trade is benefiting the entire region, but with different dynamics. Brazil (Ibovespa) gains from Brent stabilizing around $85–90 (Petrobras sweet spot) and rate-cut expectations rebuilding. Colombia (COLCAP) benefits from its oil export exposure. Chile (IPSA) and Mexico (IPC) are recovering from deeply oversold levels as global growth fears ease. Today’s CPI is the next test: a soft print could extend the synchronized rally, while a hot print would likely hit Mexico’s IPC hardest given its US demand sensitivity.
Commodities & FX KEY MOVES
Brent continued its retreat from $119.50, settling around $88 on Tuesday — a ~11% drop from Monday’s $98.96 settlement and ~26% from the intraday peak. The EIA STEO forecast Brent above $95 for the next two months before falling below $80 in Q3 and ~$70 by year-end, assuming gradual Hormuz resumption. The IEA emergency meeting could be the catalyst for a further move lower if a large SPR release is announced. Conversely, Iran’s mine deployment and the Wright post debacle show how quickly the narrative can reverse.
Iron Ore pulled back ~1.75% to ~$112 as the energy-cost rally faded with oil’s decline. Freight premiums remain elevated due to Hormuz disruption, but the demand outlook is softening as recession fears grow.
Gold surged ~2.44% to ~$5,228, staging a sharp reversal from Monday’s $5,092 close. Silver jumped 6.25% to $89.81. The precious metals rally reflects a DXY retreat (98.63, −0.55%), falling Treasury yields (~4.05%), and a reassertion of the safe-haven trade now that the dollar’s momentum has stalled. Gold is back within range of its late-February $5,589 all-time high.
USD/BRL continued strengthening to ~R$5.16, extending the real’s position as the best-performing EM currency of the crisis. The combination of falling oil (reducing inflation pass-through risk), a hawkish Selic differential (15% vs 3.50% Fed), and Brazil’s net oil-exporter status creates a structural tailwind. The Petrobras pricing gap remains the latent risk.
DXY fell to 98.63 (−0.55%), its weakest close since the war began. EUR/USD extended to 1.1645. The dollar’s safe-haven premium is unwinding as Trump’s de-escalation signals and falling oil reduce the urgency of the flight-to-safety trade. A soft CPI today would accelerate the DXY decline, supporting EM currencies and gold.
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| Brent retracing toward $80 unlocks the Copom cut and equity re-rating — Oil has fallen 26% from Monday’s $119 peak. The EIA STEO projects sub-$80 by Q3. If the IEA SPR release adds another 100M+ barrels, the oil shock becomes transitory — exactly the cover the BCB needs for a 50 bps cut. A rate cut at 15% with Brent at $85 is the Goldilocks scenario for the Ibovespa.
RSI crossed 50 on the Ibovespa — technical momentum is turning — The first close above RSI 50 since the war, combined with a positive MACD histogram and two days of expanding volume, creates the setup for a 50-day SMA reclaim. Historically, RSI crossing 50 from below after a crisis selloff has preceded 5–8% moves in the following 10 sessions. DXY breakdown below 99 supports EM broadly — The dollar at 98.63 is weakening rapidly. EUR/USD at 1.1645 is the strongest level in months. A soft CPI today could push DXY below 98, triggering further EM inflows and BRL strength. The real at R$5.16 still has room to run toward R$5.00 if the carry trade remains attractive. IEA emergency SPR release could cap oil structurally — The meeting of 30+ IEA members to discuss the largest-ever coordinated release is a policy signal. Even the announcement effect could hold Brent below $90 while physical barrels are organized. |
Iran is mining the Strait — escalation continues regardless of Trump’s rhetoric — CNN’s report that Iran is deploying mines in Hormuz is a significant escalation. Mines create a persistent threat that cannot be neutralized by a ceasefire announcement alone. Demining operations take weeks to months. Even if fighting stops tomorrow, oil transit through Hormuz faces a mine-contaminated waterway that keeps insurance premiums elevated.
The Chris Wright debacle exposed how fragile the rally is — A single deleted social media post by the Energy Secretary caused a multi-percent swing in oil and equities within minutes. The market is trading on headlines, not fundamentals. Any surprise escalation — a tanker hit, an Israeli strike, an IRGC attack on Saudi infrastructure — reverses the de-escalation trade instantly. CPI could surprise hot and kill the rate-cut narrative — January PPI core rose 0.8% MoM (strongest since mid-2025). If February CPI core exceeds +0.4%, the Fed’s June cut probability drops sharply. A hawkish CPI + hot IPCA tomorrow would close the Copom cut window and send the DI curve steepening, reversing two days of Ibovespa gains. The Ibovespa rally is driven by Brent, not fundamentals — The index gained 2.3% over two sessions as oil fell from $99 to $88. If oil stabilizes here, the Ibovespa loses its catalyst. Without a Copom cut or genuine geopolitical resolution, the rally stalls at the 50-day SMA and the 183,000–185,000 range becomes a ceiling, not a floor. |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
Wednesday is CPI day, and the number will determine whether the Ibovespa’s two-day recovery extends toward the 50-day SMA at ~184,640 or stalls. The setup is constructive: RSI crossed 50, volume is expanding, Brent is down 26% from Monday’s peak, gold is rallying, the DXY is breaking down, and the real is at R$5.16. The Ibovespa at 183,447 is within striking distance of reclaiming its pre-war trend.
The positioning call shifts from defensively constructive to cautiously building. Maintain Petrobras and PRIO overweight — Brent at $85–90 is the sweet spot. Begin selectively adding rate-sensitive names (banks, homebuilders) if CPI comes in soft and the DI curve compresses further, in anticipation of the Copom’s 50 bps cut next week. Vale holds value at $112 iron ore with the China NPC growth target as backdrop. The IEA SPR decision and tomorrow’s IPCA are the two remaining inputs before the Copom — both skew dovish if the de-escalation holds. If CPI is hot (core above +0.4%), reduce equity exposure and wait for the IPCA before re-engaging. Key risk events ahead: US CPI today, IPCA tomorrow, Copom + FOMC next week.