TODAY’S FOCUS
The Big Picture
The Ibovespa shattered records again, closing above 191,000 for the first time ever as Turnaround Tuesday erased Monday’s selloff across global markets. Today’s session faces a binary event: Nvidia reports after the bell and will either validate or destroy the AI trade that has driven this year’s rally. Before that, Eurozone CPI (05:00 ET) sets the ECB tone, Brazil’s FGV Consumer Confidence and bank lending data (06:00-06:30 ET) signal domestic conditions, and EIA crude oil inventories (10:30 ET) test the energy complex. Trump’s State of the Union address last night may have introduced new trade or policy catalysts. Fed’s Barkin speaks at 09:30 ET. The question: can the Ibovespa hold 191K with RSI at 70 and the world watching Jensen Huang?
Three Things That Matter
| 16:00 ET | Nvidia (NVDA) Q4 earnings — the single most important catalyst for global risk appetite this week. AMD surged 8.8% Tuesday on Meta AI deal; expectations sky-high |
| 05:00 ET | Eurozone CPI (Jan) — Core cons: 2.2% vs 2.3% prior. Key for ECB rate path and global yield dynamics |
| 10:30 ET | EIA Crude Oil Inventories — Cons: +1.8M vs −9.0M prior. Brent at $71.19 amid US-Iran talks |
Where We Left Off TUESDAY, FEB 24 — B3 CLOSE
The Ibovespa surged 1.40% to 191,490.40 — its 13th record close of 2026 and the first-ever finish above 191,000. The rally was driven by blue-chip heavyweights: Petrobras rose 1.6%, Vale gained 1.0%, and ItaĂº added 0.9%, all fueled by the relentless foreign inflow machine that has now pushed R$35.6 billion YTD into the B3. The index touched 191,780.77 intraday — a new all-time high — after opening at Monday’s close of 188,854. Volume was robust at R$33.0 billion. “On the road to 200,000!” declared ItaĂº BBA’s technical team. The dollar fell 0.27% to R$5.1556, its lowest close since May 28, 2024, as the carry trade and EM rotation continued to compress the pair.
Wall Street staged a Turnaround Tuesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.77% to 6,890.07, the Dow gained 370 points (+0.76%) to 49,174.50, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.04% to 22,863.68. AMD soared 8.8% after Meta announced a multiyear, 6-gigawatt AI data center deal using AMD GPUs. Software stocks that were crushed Monday recovered modestly — ServiceNow, Intuit, and Salesforce gained ~3% on average. Home Depot beat earnings expectations, adding to the Dow’s gains. Consumer Confidence surprised to the upside at 91.2 vs 88.0 consensus. Gold retreated from its 3-week high, and the VIX fell 6.9% to 19.56. Fed Governor Cook warned that AI-driven unemployment may be beyond monetary policy’s ability to fix.
Market Snapshot DATA AS OF TUE, FEB 24 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 191,490 | +1.40% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1556 | −0.27% |
| S&P 500 | 6,890.07 | +0.77% |
| Nasdaq | 22,864 | +1.04% |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.04% | +1 bp |
| Gold (Apr) | $5,170 | −1.06% |
| Brent Crude | $71.19 | +0.11% |
| Iron Ore (DCE) | 740.5 ¥/mt | −1.79% |
| DXY | 97.79 | +0.15% |
What to Watch TUESDAY OVERNIGHT RECAP
Tuesday was a story of rehabilitation. After Monday’s triple shock (15% tariff announcement, AI displacement fears, VIX above 21), markets snapped back as three forces converged: (1) The AI trade found a floor — AMD’s 8.8% surge on Meta’s 6-gigawatt GPU deal reminded investors that AI capex is accelerating, not contracting. Software stocks bounced but didn’t fully recover. (2) Consumer Confidence beat expectations at 91.2 vs 88.0 consensus, calming fears that the U.S. consumer was cracking under tariff anxiety. (3) Tariff clarity (sort of) — the 10% Section 122 tariffs formally took effect Tuesday, but the formal order to raise them to 15% has not yet been issued. Markets took comfort in the delay.
Trump delivered his State of the Union address Tuesday night — any trade, fiscal, or policy surprises may be moving markets this morning. Fed Governor Cook warned: AI-driven unemployment may require workforce policy, not rate cuts, to address. Overnight, German Q4 GDP confirmed at +0.3% QoQ (in line), but the GfK Consumer Climate missed at −24.7 vs −23.0 consensus, signaling European consumers remain deeply pessimistic. BoJ Core CPI eased to 1.7% vs 1.8% expected.
Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS
The index enters Wednesday from a new all-time high of 191,490. The intraday record of 191,781 is immediate resistance. The rally from Monday’s low of 188,854 to Tuesday’s high spanned 2,927 points in a single session — a powerful reversal that drew in short-covering alongside fresh foreign buying. Reuters polls now project the Ibovespa at 195,000 by year-end, only ~2% above current levels, suggesting the consensus may already be stale.
Resistance: 191,781 (ATH intraday, Feb 24) → 193,000 (upper Bollinger Band zone). Support: 190,534 (prior closing ATH, Feb 20) → 188,854 (Mon/Tue session low) → 185,330 (20-day EMA). RSI: 70, right at the overbought threshold. Not yet extended (prior reversals triggered at 73-75), but a third consecutive green candle would push RSI into more dangerous territory. Volume at R$33.0B was solid — institutional conviction is present.
Copom Watch NEXT MEETING: MAR 17-18
The Selic sits at 15.00%, three weeks from the next Copom decision. Today’s bank lending data (06:30 ET) will show whether the 15% rate is starting to bite credit growth — January’s MoM reading was 1.8%. The BRL at 5.1556 (lowest since May 2024) gives Copom breathing room on imported inflation, but the 10% Section 122 tariffs that took effect Tuesday — with 15% potentially coming — create a new variable for the inflation outlook. FGV Consumer Confidence (06:00 ET) will signal household sentiment. The strong carry trade (15% Selic vs ~3.75% Fed funds) continues to attract foreign capital, reinforcing the virtuous cycle that has driven the Ibovespa rally. Fed Chicago’s Goolsbee said he’s optimistic rates could fall by end-2026, but the 5% probability of a March Fed cut means no near-term relief for the spread.
Economic Calendar WEDNESDAY, FEB 25
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | Eurozone CPI (Jan) — Core cons: 2.2% | Headline cons: 1.7% | Prev: 1.9% | HIGH |
| 06:00 | FGV Consumer Confidence (Feb) — Prev: 87.3 | MEDIUM |
| 06:30 | Bank Lending (Jan) — Prev: +1.8% MoM | MEDIUM |
| 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications — Prev: +2.8% WoW | LOW |
| 09:30 | Fed Barkin Speaks | MEDIUM |
| 10:00 | Current Account (Q4) — Cons: $11,520M | Prev: $2,325M | MEDIUM |
| 10:30 | EIA Crude Oil Inventories — Cons: +1.8M | Prev: −9.0M | HIGH |
| 11:00 | Fed Schmid Speaks | MEDIUM |
| 12:30 | Foreign Exchange Flows — Prev: R$1.783B | MEDIUM |
| 13:00 | 5-Year Note Auction — Prev: 3.823% | MEDIUM |
| 14:00 | Retail Sales (Dec) — Prev: +21.2% YoY | MEDIUM |
| 16:00 | Nvidia (NVDA) Q4 Earnings — The week’s marquee event | HIGH |
| 20:00 | Bank of Korea Rate Decision — Prev: 2.50% | MEDIUM |
Latin America Markets LATEST CLOSE
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 191,490 | +1.40% | 70 | Overbought |
| IPC | 70,935 | +0.43% | 63 | Bullish |
| COLCAP | 2,396 | −2.95% | 54 | Neutral |
| IPSA | 10,992 | +0.63% | 48 | Neutral |
| MERVAL | 2,812,414 | +1.79% | 41 | Neutral |
Brazil and Argentina bounced in sync — the Ibovespa surged 1.40% to a new record while the MERVAL gained 1.79%, recovering some of Monday’s 3.84% loss. Colombia was the outlier, with the COLCAP plunging 2.95% to 2,396 — giving back all of Monday’s 2.10% rally and then some, suggesting local factors are weighing. Mexico’s IPC edged up 0.43% to 70,935, holding near all-time highs with RSI at 63 still constructive. Chile’s IPSA extended higher with a 0.63% gain to 10,992, hovering near its Feb highs. Today’s LatAm catalysts: Argentina retail sales (14:00 ET) and Mexico’s Q4 current account (10:00 ET).
Commodities & FX KEY MOVES
Gold pulled back over 1% from its 3-week high as the risk-on mood reduced safe-haven demand, settling near $5,170. The metal had surged 2.85% on Monday to $5,226 on tariff fears and safe-haven buying, so Tuesday’s retreat was a healthy correction. Brent held firm at $71.19 (+0.11%), hovering near $72 as US-Iran nuclear talks are set to resume Thursday. Trump warned consequences will be “severe” if no deal materializes, keeping a geopolitical risk premium in oil. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast by $8 to $64/bbl for 2026 — even assuming no Iran disruptions. Iron ore fell 1.79% on the DCE (I2605: 740.5 yuan/mt) as China returned from Lunar New Year holidays with sluggish steel demand. Spot iron ore (62% Fe) at ~$98/t is at its lowest since August 2025 — a headwind for Vale. DXY firmed modestly to 97.79 (+0.15%), though the dollar remains deeply depressed year-over-year (−8%).
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| Foreign flows unstoppable — R$35.6B YTD, 13th record close. ItaĂº BBA targeting 200K. Structural EM rotation into Brazil intensifying.
AI capex accelerating — Meta-AMD 6GW deal broadens AI buildout beyond Nvidia. Bullish NVDA earnings tonight could reignite tech globally. BRL at 5.15 supports Copom — Strongest since May 2024, lowering imported inflation and giving Copom room to hold. Consumer resilience — U.S. CB Confidence beat at 91.2. Today’s Brazil FGV reading could confirm domestic households are holding. |
Nvidia earnings binary risk — A miss or weak guidance would crush the AI trade, dragging global equities. Foreign buyers of the Ibovespa would reverse fast.
RSI at 70 with 13 records — No meaningful pullback since mid-January. Prior reversals at 73-75; another green day pushes deeper into danger zone. Iron ore sub-$100 — Lowest since Aug 2025 signals weak Chinese demand. Vale is ~11% of Ibovespa; sustained weakness caps upside. State of the Union wildcards — Any new tariff escalation or geopolitical announcement from last night could roil markets at the open. |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
The Ibovespa’s recovery from 188,854 to a new all-time high of 191,490 in a single session confirms the foreign-flow driven bull market is intact and buying every dip. But today is not about Brazil’s domestic story — it’s about Jensen Huang. Nvidia’s Q4 earnings after the bell will determine whether the global AI trade gets a fresh catalyst or suffers an earnings-induced reversal. The setup is high-conviction but high-risk: RSI at 70, iron ore below $100, and a State of the Union that may have introduced overnight surprises. For the Ibovespa, 190,534 (prior closing ATH) is the new floor to hold. If Nvidia delivers, the path to 195K opens fast — Reuters consensus is already there for year-end. If Nvidia disappoints, expect the global risk-off to test 188,500 again. Bias: cautiously bullish into Nvidia, but size accordingly.