Today’s Focus
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The Big Picture: The Ibovespa smashed through 190,000 for the first time in history yesterday, touching 190,561 intraday before closing at 189,699 (+2.03%) — its 11th record close of 2026 in just 29 sessions. The dollar fell to R$5.1872, its lowest since May 2024. Blue chips led the charge: Suzano exploded 13.3%, Vale rose 3.5%, Petrobras gained 2.0%, and Bradesco advanced 3.0%.
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
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The delayed U.S. January nonfarm payrolls came in at +130,000 — nearly double the 55,000–70,000 consensus — with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m. But the headline masked structural weakness: 2025 benchmark revisions slashed total hiring from 584,000 to just 181,000 (an average of 15,000/month), and federal government jobs fell 34,000 on DOGE-related separations.
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Wall Street initially surged (Dow +300 points, Nasdaq +0.9%) but faded as Treasury yields jumped and rate-cut odds were repriced lower. The Dow closed -0.13% at 50,121, the S&P 500 was essentially flat at 6,941, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.16% to 23,066. The 10-year yield climbed to ~4.18% from its Tuesday low near 4.14%.
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BC President Galípolo, speaking at BTG Pactual’s CEO Conference, compared the Central Bank to “a transatlantic liner, not a jet ski” — reaffirming the March “calibration” (rate cuts) while stressing the need for caution. The keyword: calibragem. Focus estimates remain at Selic 12.25% year-end.
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Brent crude surged 2.5% to $70.56 on U.S.–Iran tensions — Washington is reportedly considering intercepting Iranian tankers. Gold held above $5,060. Argentina’s January CPI came in at 2.9% m/m (above 2.5% expected), with the 12-month rate at 32.4%, extending the re-acceleration trend amid the INDEC credibility crisis.
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Market Snapshot
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Brazil — February 11, 2026 (Wed close)
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| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa | 189,699 | +2.03% ★ ALL-TIME HIGH |
| USD/BRL | 5.1872 | -0.20% (lowest since May ’24) |
| Selic Rate | 15.00% | MARCH CUT CONFIRMED |
| Brent Crude | $70.56/bbl | +2.5% (4th day up) |
| Gold | $5,060/oz | above $5,000 |
| Iron Ore | $100.84/t | ~FLAT |
| U.S. 10Y Treasury | 4.18% | +4bps (post-NFP) |
| U.S. NFP (Jan) | +130,000 | BEAT (exp +55K–70K) |
| Argentina CPI (Jan) | +2.9% m/m | MISS (exp +2.5%) |
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Today’s Main Event
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Ibovespa breaches 190,000 for the first time in history as foreign flows overwhelm payroll noise
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One hundred and ninety thousand. The Ibovespa blew past the psychological barrier yesterday, touching 190,561 intraday — a number that seemed aspirational just weeks ago — before settling at 189,699 (+2.03%), its 11th record close of 2026. The session added 3,770 points in a single day, erasing the prior session’s modest retreat and then some. Volume was robust as institutional engagement accelerated.
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The breakout was powered by a broad-based blue chip rally. Suzano (SUZB3) was the headline act, surging 13.32% after its record Q4 results — R$50 billion in annual revenue, a reversal from last year’s R$6.7 billion loss, and a positive 2026 guidance. Klabin (KLBN11) followed with a 6% gain. The pulp and paper sector was the day’s clear winner.
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Vale (VALE3) advanced 3.49%, with analysts increasingly bullish on the stock reaching R$100 in 2026. Petrobras (PETR4) gained 1.95%, supported by its record 2025 production data (2.40 Mbpd) and a 2.5% jump in Brent crude. Itaú added 1.96%, Bradesco climbed 2.96%. TIM (TIMS3) surged 7.85% on a robust Q4 earnings beat.
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Eneva (ENEV3), which crashed 9.66% on Tuesday after the Aneel auction price cap shock, recovered 1.97% following government signals that auction parameters may be revised. São Martinho jumped 9.8% and CVC gained 8.8%. Decliners were few and modest: Méliuz fell 2.3%, TOTVS lost 1.75%, LWSA dipped 1.44%.
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The dollar fell 0.20% to R$5.1872 — the lowest close since May 28, 2024 — as foreign equity inflows overwhelmed the payroll surprise. In the year, the dollar is now down 5.50% against the real. BC President Galípolo, at the BTG CEO Conference, reinforced the “calibration” narrative for March while flagging that strong wage growth and a tight labor market still require vigilance.
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The U.S. jobs report, delayed a week by the government shutdown, delivered a significant beat: 130,000 jobs vs. 55,000–70,000 expected. However, benchmark revisions slashed 2025 total job creation from 584,000 to just 181,000 — an average of 15,000 per month, the weakest since 2003. Federal government employment fell 34,000, with the federal workforce now down 327,000 (10.9%) from its October 2024 peak. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m and 3.7% y/y.
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Wall Street initially jumped but faded hard. The S&P 500 was up 0.7% intraday before ending flat at 6,941. The Dow closed -0.13% at 50,121. Software stocks led the weakness: Salesforce -4.4%, Intuit -5.2%, Palantir -2.7%. On the other side, Vertiv surged 24% on a strong AI data center outlook, Micron gained 9.9%, and Caterpillar rose 4.3%.
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Verdict
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This was a statement session. The Ibovespa didn’t just break 190,000 — it did so on a day when the U.S. payroll beat should have, in theory, reduced Fed cut odds and pressured EM assets. Instead, the foreign capital rotation into Brazil was so powerful it overwhelmed the hawkish repricing. The message: the flow is bigger than the Fed. The Ibovespa has now risen 17.4% year-to-date. The technical breakout above 187,333 (the prior resistance) opens targets at 193,000, 196,000, and ultimately 200,000.
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U.S. Jobs Report Deep Dive
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January NFP +130K beats consensus; benchmark revisions reveal 2025 was far weaker than reported
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The January nonfarm payrolls report was a study in contradictions. The headline gain of 130,000 was the strongest since December 2024 and nearly doubled consensus. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% from 4.4%. The household survey was even stronger, showing 528,000 additional workers. Participation edged up to 62.5%.
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But the benchmark revisions told a different story. Total nonfarm employment for 2025 was revised down from 584,000 to 181,000 — a reduction of 862,000 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the largest downward revision since 2009. This means average monthly job gains in 2025 were just 15,000, making it the weakest hiring year since 2003.
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By sector: health care added 82,000 (ambulatory services +50,300, hospitals +18,300). Construction added 33,000. Social assistance rose 42,000. Federal government fell 34,000 as DOGE separations hit the payroll. Financial activities lost 22,000. Since its October 2024 peak, the federal workforce is down 327,000 jobs (10.9%).
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Market reaction: the 10-year Treasury yield rose to ~4.18% as rate-cut expectations were repriced. The immediate post-NFP rally in equities faded as the “good news is bad news” dynamic took hold. The Fed remains on hold at 3.50–3.75% with the market now pricing fewer near-term cuts, though two cuts later this year remain the base case.
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Verdict
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The headline number (+130K) is optically strong but narrowly concentrated in health care. The benchmark revisions reveal that 2025 was one of the weakest hiring years in two decades. The labor market is stabilizing, not accelerating. This keeps the Fed on hold for now but doesn’t close the door to cuts later in the year. Tomorrow’s CPI is the next decisive input.
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Geopolitics & Oil
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Brent reclaims $70 as Washington escalates Iran pressure
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Brent crude surged 2.5% to $70.56 per barrel yesterday, a fourth consecutive session of gains, as U.S.–Iran tensions intensified despite the backdrop of ongoing diplomacy. Reports emerged that Washington may consider intercepting tankers carrying Iranian crude and could deploy an additional carrier strike group if nuclear talks collapse. Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed talks would continue but reiterated its non-negotiable position on uranium enrichment.
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Capping further gains, the API reported a massive crude inventory build of 13.4 million barrels for the week ending February 6 — potentially the largest since late 2023 if confirmed by official EIA data today. Part of the build reflects a rebound from the 11.1 million barrel draw caused by Winter Storm Fern in late January.
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The IEA’s February report warns of a surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026 (~4% of global demand), while the EIA forecasts Brent averaging $58/bbl for the full year. The OPEC+ monthly report arrives Thursday.
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Verdict
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Brent reclaiming $70 is geopolitically driven, not fundamentally supported. The IEA’s 4 Mbpd surplus forecast hangs over the market. If Iran talks progress, the risk premium unwinds quickly. But if they collapse, $75+ is in play. For Brazil, Petrobras’s record 2.40 Mbpd production provides a buffer regardless of short-term swings. The OPEC+ and IEA reports Thursday are the next calibration points.
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Commodities Update
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Gold steady above $5,060; iron ore flat; Suzano’s record drives pulp sector
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Gold held above $5,060 per ounce yesterday, supported by the weaker dollar and lingering geopolitical risk, though the strong payroll print moderated gains. PBoC continued buying for a 15th consecutive month. Copper rose 1.6% on the LME to $13,317/t on broad dollar weakness.
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Iron ore held flat near $100.84/t. Chinese demand remains subdued ahead of Lunar New Year, with port inventories above 160 million tons for the first time since February 2022. The DCE benchmark closed at 762.5 RMB/t (-0.07%). Vale, which reports today, is expected to provide guidance on 2026 production targets.
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Suzano’s earnings were the commodity story of the day. The company posted record 2025 revenue of R$50 billion, Q4 net profit of R$116 million (reversing a R$6.7 billion loss), EBITDA of R$21.7 billion, and cash costs at R$817/tonne. Net leverage fell to 3.2x. The stock surged 13.32% — the biggest single-stock positive contributor to the Ibovespa. Klabin gained 6% in sympathy.
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Economic Calendar
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February 10–20 (extended)
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| Date | Event | Importance |
| Tue, Feb 10 | Brazil IPCA (Jan): +0.33% m/m, 4.44% 12m ✓ In line | DONE |
| Tue, Feb 10 | U.S. Retail Sales (Dec): 0.0% m/m ✓ Miss | DONE |
| Wed, Feb 11 | Argentina CPI (Jan): +2.9% m/m, 32.4% 12m ✓ Above expectations | DONE |
| Wed, Feb 11 | U.S. NFP (Jan, delayed): +130K ✓ Beat (exp +55K–70K); unemp. 4.3% | DONE |
| Thu, Feb 12 | Earnings: Banco do Brasil, Vale, TOTVS, Assaí | HIGH |
| Thu, Feb 12 | U.S. Existing Home Sales (Jan) — 10:00 AM ET | MEDIUM |
| Thu, Feb 12 | Peru BCRP rate decision (currently 4.25%, held 4 meetings) | MEDIUM |
| Thu, Feb 12 | USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) | LOW |
| Fri, Feb 13 | U.S. CPI (January, delayed from Feb 11) — 8:30 AM ET \nDec: +0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y. New seasonal factors & weights update. Key for Fed path. |
HIGH |
| Fri, Feb 13 | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) — 8:30 AM ET | MEDIUM |
| Fri, Feb 13 | OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) | MEDIUM |
| Mon–Tue, Feb 16–17 | Carnival — Brazil markets CLOSED (B3 resumes Wed Feb 18 PM) | LIQUIDITY |
| Mon, Feb 16 | Presidents’ Day — U.S. markets CLOSED | LIQUIDITY |
| Thu, Feb 19 | FOMC Minutes (January 28–29 meeting) | HIGH |
| Fri, Feb 20 | U.S. GDP Q4 2025 (Advance, delayed from Jan 29) + Personal Income & Outlays Dec | HIGH |
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Technical Analysis
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Key levels
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| Instrument | Support | Current | Resistance |
| Ibovespa | 187,333 / 185,000 | 189,699 | 190,561 / 193,875 |
| USD/BRL | 5.10 / 5.00 | 5.1872 | 5.27 / 5.40 |
| Brent Crude | $67 / $65 | $70.56 | $72 / $75 |
| Gold | $5,000 / $4,900 | $5,060 | $5,200 / $5,400 |
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Latin America Markets
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February 11, 2026
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| Country | Index | Level | Change | FX (USD) |
| Brazil | Ibovespa | 189,699 | +2.03% | 5.19 |
| Mexico | IPC | 71,601 | +0.46% ▲ATH | 17.18 |
| Argentina | MERVAL | 3,017,641 | -1.4% | 1,400 |
| Colombia | COLCAP | 2,387 | -1.75% | 3,670 |
| Chile | IPSA | ~11,200 | +1.8% | 856 |
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Mexico: The IPC rose 0.46% to 71,601 — its 13th all-time high close of 2026 — as America Movil (+4.87%) and Grupo México (+2.25%) led the advance. Gains in 4 of the last 5 sessions have pushed YTD returns to +11.3%. The peso was flat at 17.18 vs. the dollar. Gabriela Siller of Banco Base noted the session reflected global risk appetite outweighing the slightly hawkish NFP repricing. Mexico’s proximity to the U.S. labor market creates a mixed signal: strong hiring supports remittances and trade, but reduced Fed cut odds pressure rate-sensitive sectors.
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Argentina: The MERVAL fell 1.4% to 3,017,641 — its dollar equivalent dropping 1.3% to 2,044 — as January CPI came in at 2.9% m/m, above the 2.5% consensus and the fifth consecutive month above 2%. Food prices surged 4.7%. The INDEC credibility crisis deepened after former chief Marco Lavagna’s resignation and the government’s decision to delay methodology updates. The 12-month rate rose to 32.4%. On the positive side, the BCRA bought $214 million in reserves (highest of 2026) amid strong FX liquidity, and the dollar fell to 1,400 pesos (mayorista), its lowest since November. Telecom Argentina (-9.3%) and Grupo Supervielle (-3.2%) led declines, while Transportadora de Gas (+3.2%) bucked the trend.
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Colombia: The COLCAP fell 1.75%, underperforming the region, as Ecopetrol (-1.78%) weighed despite the oil rally. Banco Davivienda (+3.91%) and GEB (+2.23%) were exceptions. USD/COP was flat near 3,670. The selloff marked the COLCAP’s third session of losses from near the January 27 all-time high of 2,562 as profit-taking accelerated.
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Chile: The IPSA rebounded ~1.8% to around 11,200, recovering from Tuesday’s brutal -2.14% crash to 11,009 — the worst session since the April 2025 “Liberation Day” tariff shock. The rebound was led by SQM-B (+4%), CMPC (+3.8%), and Mallplaza (+3%) as investors bought the dip. Tuesday’s selloff was driven by Latam Airlines’ 6th secondary offering (12M ADRs at $61.90, settled Feb 11) and Entel’s worst day since March 2020 after JPMorgan downgraded it to underweight. The dólar observado traded near $856. Peru’s BCRP rate decision today (currently at 4.25%, held for 4 consecutive meetings) is the next regional catalyst.
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Key Themes This Week
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190K Breached
\nThe Ibovespa smashed through 190,000 for the first time, touching 190,561 intraday. The 11th record close of 2026 came on a day when U.S. data should have pressured EM. Foreign flow is overwhelming all other signals. YTD return: +17.4%.
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NFP: Strong Headline, Weak Foundation
\nJanuary +130K beat expectations but 2025 benchmark revisions slashed 862K jobs. Average monthly hiring in 2025: just 15K — weakest since 2003. Federal workforce down 327K since peak. The labor market is stabilizing, not accelerating.
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Galípolo: “Calibragem” from March
\nBC President confirmed the March rate cut at BTG’s CEO Conference, using the “transatlantic liner” analogy to signal gradual, data-dependent easing. Focus: Selic to 12.25% year-end. The tight labor market and above-target inflation expectations (3.5% for 2028–29 vs. 3% target) require patience.
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Argentina: Disinflation Stalls
\nJan CPI at 2.9% m/m (vs 2.5% exp) — the 5th straight month above 2%. Food prices surged 4.7%. INDEC credibility crisis intensifies after Lavagna’s resignation and methodology delay. Milei’s disinflation narrative faces its toughest test.
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Bottom Line
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Yesterday was the most significant session of 2026 for Brazilian equities. The Ibovespa didn’t just break 190,000 — it did so emphatically, surging 2.03% to 189,699 and touching 190,561 intraday — on a day when the U.S. payroll beat should have, in traditional macro logic, strengthened the dollar and pressured emerging markets. It didn’t. The foreign capital rotation into Brazil is the dominant force, and it’s overwhelming all other signals.
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The blue chip rally was broad and powerful: Suzano’s 13.3% eruption on record earnings, Vale’s 3.5% advance, Petrobras’s 2% gain, Bradesco‘s 3% rise. Even Eneva recovered nearly 2% after Tuesday’s regulatory shock. The dollar fell to its lowest close since May 2024 at R$5.1872, down 5.5% year-to-date. Galípolo reinforced the March rate cut at the BTG CEO Conference, using measured language that reassured without overpromising.
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The payroll nuance matters: The January headline (+130K) was strong, but 2025 benchmark revisions revealed the weakest hiring year since 2003 (avg 15K/month). Federal layoffs are accelerating. Wall Street rallied then faded — the S&P finished flat, the Dow dipped. Treasury yields rose to 4.18% but remain well below January peaks. The net effect: a modestly hawkish repricing that doesn’t fundamentally alter the EM-positive backdrop of a weaker dollar and eventually easier Fed policy.
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Earnings momentum continues: Suzano’s record R$50B revenue, TIM’s earnings beat, and Petrobras’s production record are the latest data points confirming Brazilian corporates are delivering. Banco do Brasil and Vale report today — the next major tests. The Argentina CPI miss (2.9% vs. 2.5%) adds regional uncertainty but has minimal contagion to Brazil.
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Key risks ahead: U.S. CPI tomorrow (Thursday) — a hot print could trigger a real pullback; Carnival Feb 16–17 reduces liquidity; iron ore weakness ahead of Lunar New Year; Strait of Hormuz escalation; IFR at 72+ on the daily and 84+ on the weekly signals overbought conditions that warrant caution on position sizing.
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© 2026 RT Staff Reporters | Brazil Financial Morning Call
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate