Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for September 18, 2025

Brazil’s financial markets are navigating a dynamic landscape, balancing robust domestic gains against global monetary shifts.

Brazil’s Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15% on September 17, 2025, marking the second consecutive meeting with rates at levels last seen in 2006, amid annual inflation of 5.13% in August exceeding the 3% target and expectations for 2025 inflation at 4.8%.

Economic growth is projected to slow from 3.4% in 2024 to 1.6-2.2% in 2025, with warnings of a potential technical recession in the second half, despite unemployment near historic lows at 5.6% contributing to wage pressures.

Brazil’s real interest rates stand at 9.51%, the world’s second-highest behind Turkey, creating a 1,000+ basis point differential with the U.S. Fed’s recent cut to 4.0-4.25%, attracting capital flows and strengthening the real by over 13% in 2025 but risking asset bubbles.

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.0-4.25% on September 17, signaling two additional cuts this year, but projected sub-2% GDP growth at 1.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and below 2% in 2027, with unemployment at 4.3% and gradual inflation easing, amid criticism of the Fed’s forecasting accuracy.

Petrobras transferred R$270.3 billion ($54 billion) to governments in 2024, up from R$240.2 billion in 2023, deepening fiscal dependence on oil revenues from pre-salt fields, which overtook soybeans as Brazil’s top export at $44.8 billion, though exposing budgets to commodity volatility.

The Ibovespa hit a record high above 146,000 points, fueled by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut and foreign inflows seeking Brazil’s 15% Selic differential, setting the stage for today’s economic agenda amid domestic slowdown signals.

Economic Agenda for September 18, 2025

Brazil (10th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.125 trillion)

• 13:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.276B. Measures net foreign capital inflows/outflows.

Implication: Strong inflows could reinforce the real’s stability near 5.30 per dollar, enhancing export competitiveness amid the 15% Selic and U.S. rate cut attracting capital, while outflows may amplify global uncertainties from Fed’s sub-2% growth projections.

United States (Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$30.50 trillion)

• 08:30 AM BRT – Continuing Jobless Claims: Actual TBD, Consensus 1,950K, Previous 1,939K. Ongoing unemployment claims.
• 08:30 AM BRT – Initial Jobless Claims: Actual TBD, Consensus 241K, Previous 263K. Weekly new unemployment filings.
• 08:30 AM BRT – Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 240.50K. Smoothed unemployment trend.
• 08:30 AM BRT – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.7, Previous -0.3. Regional manufacturing survey.
• 08:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed Business Conditions (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 25.0. Business outlook component.
• 08:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 38.40. Capital expenditure sub-index.
• 08:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed Employment (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 5.9. Employment component.
• 08:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed New Orders (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -1.9. New orders indicator.
• 08:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed Prices Paid (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 66.80. Input price pressures.
• 10:00 AM BRT – US Leading Index (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus -0.2%, Previous -0.1%. Composite economic forecast.
• 10:30 AM BRT – Natural Gas Storage: Actual TBD, Consensus 80B, Previous 71B. Weekly gas inventory changes.
• 16:00 PM BRT – US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -5.00B. Foreign Treasury purchases.
• 16:00 PM BRT – Overall Net Capital Flow (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 77.80B. Net capital movements.
• 16:00 PM BRT – TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 150.8B. Long-term securities flows.
• 16:00 PM BRT – TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 97.20B, Previous 150.80B. Adjusted long-term flows.
• 16:30 PM BRT – Fed’s Balance Sheet: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 6,606B. Weekly Fed assets.
• 16:30 PM BRT – Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.151T. Bank reserves.

Implication: U.S. jobless claims and manufacturing data will gauge labor market cooling post-Fed cut to 4.0-4.25%, with sub-2% growth projections influencing global capital flows; softer figures could boost Brazil’s commodity exports, while strong data may pressure the real amid 15% Selic stability.

Europe (Collective GDP of Key Economies: Germany, UK, France, etc.)

• 02:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (Aug) (CHF): Actual TBD, Consensus 5.220B, Previous 4.619B. Swiss trade surplus.
• 04:00 AM BRT – German Buba Mauderer Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. ECB policy insights.
• 04:00 AM BRT – German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. ECB views.
• 04:00 AM BRT – Interest Rate Decision (NOK): Actual TBD, Consensus 4.00%, Previous 4.25%. Norway central bank rate.
• 04:00 AM BRT – Current Account (Jul) (EUR): Actual TBD, Consensus 34.6B, Previous 35.8B. Eurozone external balance.
• 04:00 AM BRT – Current Account n.s.a. (Jul) (EUR): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 38.9B. Non-seasonally adjusted.
• 04:00 AM BRT – ECB’s De Guindos Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. ECB signals.
• 04:40 AM BRT – Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.200%. Bond yield.
• 04:40 AM BRT – Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.204%. Short-term yield.
• 04:40 AM BRT – Spanish 30-Year Obligacion Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.974%. Long-term yield.
• 05:00 AM BRT – Construction Output (MoM) (Jul) (EUR): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.76%. Building activity.
• 05:45 AM BRT – ECB’s Schnabel Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. ECB commentary.
• 06:00 AM BRT – German Buba Monthly Report: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Bundesbank analysis.
• 07:00 AM BRT – BoE MPC vote cut (Sep) (GBP): Actual TBD, Consensus 1, Previous 5. Voting breakdown.
• 07:00 AM BRT – BoE MPC vote hike (Sep) (GBP): Actual TBD, Consensus 0, Previous 0. Voting details.
• 07:00 AM BRT – BoE MPC vote unchanged (Sep) (GBP): Actual TBD, Consensus 8, Previous 4. Policy stance.
• 07:00 AM BRT – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep) (GBP): Actual TBD, Consensus 4.00%, Previous 4.00%. UK base rate.
• 07:00 AM BRT – BoE MPC Meeting Minutes: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Policy rationale.
• 10:00 AM BRT – German Buba President Nagel Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. ECB insights.
• 12:30 PM BRT – German Buba Mauderer Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Further ECB views.
• All Day – ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. ECB policy signals.

Implication: European current account, BoE decision at 4.00%, and ECB speeches could signal trade dynamics; steady rates may curb demand for Brazil’s steel and soybean exports, compounding U.S. tariff pressures from 50% on Brazilian goods, while construction output influences regional investment.

Other Countries

Mexico (11th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.00 trillion)

• No specific events listed for today, but recent peso at 18.34 post-13-month peak and stock surges of 17.1% in 2025 tie to U.S. Fed cut.

Implication: U.S.-linked data will influence Mexico’s peso-real pair and regional trade, with strong figures supporting Brazil’s commodity exports and Mercosur stability amid EFTA deal boosting agribusiness.

Implication: Recent BoC trends could boost commodity demand, supporting Brazil’s oil exports from Petrobras.

China (2nd Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$19.00 trillion)

• 08:00 AM BRT – FDI (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -13.40%. Foreign direct investment inflows.

Implication: Declining FDI could weaken demand for Brazil’s diversified exports to China, pressuring agribusiness despite Mercosur-EFTA deal adding R$3.34 billion in exports by 2044.

Japan (3rd Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$4.10 trillion)

• 19:30 PM BRT – CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Aug) (JPY): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.2%. Monthly non-core CPI.
• 19:30 PM BRT – National Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) (JPY): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.7%, Previous 3.1%. Annual core inflation.
• 19:30 PM BRT – National CPI (MoM) (Aug) (JPY): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.1%. Monthly headline CPI.
• 19:30 PM BRT – National CPI (YoY) (Aug) (JPY): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.1%. Annual headline CPI.
• 19:50 PM BRT – Foreign Bonds Buying (JPY): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 245.1B. Overseas bond purchases.
• 19:50 PM BRT – Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks (JPY): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 108.6B. Stock inflows.
• 22:30 PM BRT – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Policy details.
• 23:00 PM BRT – BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JPY): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.50%, Previous 0.50%. Japan base rate.

Implication: Cooling CPI at 2.7% consensus may reduce demand for Brazil’s steel and agricultural exports, influencing trade strategy via Mercosur-EFTA pact.

South Africa

• 09:00 AM BRT – Interest Rate Decision (Sep) (ZAR): Actual TBD, Consensus 7.00%, Previous 7.00%. SARB key rate.
• 09:00 AM BRT – Prime Rate (Sep) (ZAR): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 10.50%. Lending benchmark.

Implication: Steady 7.00% rate may reflect emerging market commodity demand, indirectly affecting Brazil’s exports and fiscal ties to Petrobras revenues.

New Zealand

• 17:00 PM BRT – Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 91.2. Consumer confidence.
• 18:45 PM BRT – Exports (Aug) (NZD): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 6.71B. Monthly exports.
• 18:45 PM BRT – Imports (Aug) (NZD): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 7.28B. Monthly imports.
• 18:45 PM BRT – Trade Balance (YoY) (Aug) (NZD): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -3,940M. Annual trade gap.
• 18:45 PM BRT – Trade Balance (MoM) (Aug) (NZD): Actual TBD, Consensus -746M, Previous -578M. Monthly trade balance.
• 19:00 PM BRT – Credit Card Spending (YoY) (Aug) (NZD): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.4%. Consumer spending trend.

Implication: Widening trade deficit could temper regional trade, impacting Brazil’s exports via global commodity links.

Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s FX flows will shape capital inflows amid 15% Selic stability and real at 5.30, critical for export resilience against U.S. 50% tariffs and Fed’s sub-2% growth outlook pressuring global demand.

U.S. jobless claims and Philly Fed data will drive flows impacting commodities, while European BoE/ECB events and China FDI influence trade diversification via Mercosur-EFTA, with Petrobras’ fiscal dependence highlighting oil revenue volatility risks.

Brazil’s Markets Yesterday

The Ibovespa index closed at 145,593.63 points on September 17, 2025, up from previous levels, hitting a record high with an intraday peak of 146,330 points.

Robust trading volume was driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut to 4.0-4.25% on September 17, with signals for two more cuts this year, alongside Brazil’s Selic steady at 15% creating an 11 percentage point differential attracting foreign funds into banks like Bradesco (up 3.47%) and Santander Brasil (up 2.29%), and retail such as Magazine Luiza (up 5.31%).

The real stayed near 5.30 per dollar, supported by high commodity exports and inflation cooling to 5.13%, despite economic slowdown with three consecutive drops in the key growth index.

Technicals show support above the 20-day moving average, RSI above 70 indicating overbought conditions, and bullish MACD on daily charts, signaling momentum from global easing outshining domestic worries like potential recession risks at 15% rates.

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U.S. Markets Yesterday

The Dow Jones rose 0.6% (up 260 points) to 46,018.32, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 6,600.35 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% to 22,261.33, retreating from records after the Fed’s rate decision.

The Federal Reserve cut the fed-funds rate by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25% and signaled two additional cuts likely this year, with choppy trading following Chair Powell’s tempered remarks on sub-2% growth projections for 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.

Financials outperformed, while industrials and tech lagged amid China headlines, with the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.07%–4.09% and the U.S. Dollar Index firming to high-96s.

Oil fell with WTI near $64 and Brent near $68, gold easing 0.2% to $3,681.80/oz, as markets rallied initially but faded on cautious Fed signals.

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Mexico’s Market Yesterday

Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC index showed mixed performance, with gains in Gentera (up 7.0%), Volaris (up 6.1%), and Alsea (up 1.6%) reaching records, but declines in Industrias Peñoles (down 5.4%), Qualitas (down 4.2%), and Coca-Cola Femsa (down 4.1%), as the market surged 17.1% in 2025 driven by U.S. trade ties.

The peso stumbled to 18.34 per dollar after a 13-month peak at 18.20, gaining 4.9% in 2025 on the Fed cut creating a 3.5 percentage point rate gap with Mexico’s 7.75%, attracting $13 million in ETF inflows, though technicals suggest correction risks toward 18.60.

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Argentina’s Market Yesterday

The S&P Merval remained between 1.75 million and 1.82 million points with low volumes, as the peso breached its 1,474.345 per dollar limit for the first time, prompting $53 million Central Bank intervention amid election losses for President Milei’s party raising reform doubts.

Energy stocks like Celulosa Argentina and YPF gained, while banks like Banco Macro fell on volatility; the peso weakened 53% this year with inflation over 200%, reserves at $9 billion, and ETF outflows of 10.6%.

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Colombia’s Market Yesterday

The COLCAP index dipped 0.24% to 1,834.30, with cautious trading and below-average volumes, as Grupo Nutresa and Ecopetrol led gains but Celsia fell 3.38% on utility concerns.

The peso stayed firm at 3,875 per dollar, outperforming the real amid global dollar weakness and emerging market risk appetite, though technicals show slowing gains with RSI near oversold and ETF flows positive but slowing; the market awaits policy signals amid current account deficits.

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Chile’s Market Yesterday

The IPSA dropped 0.65% to 9,007 points, hit by Fed’s mixed signals post-25 bps cut without aggressive easing, with copper prices down 0.66% to $4.55/lb impacting mining; SQM fell 2.79%, but Vapores rose 3.72% and Security Group 2.93%.

The peso weakened with Central Bank selling $77 million forwards at 964.19 per dollar; the market’s 43% yearly gain shows transition, but vulnerability to corrections persists amid Chinese data and U.S. sentiment ties.

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Commodities

Brazilian Real

The Brazilian real held steady near 5.31 per dollar on September 17, 2025, clinging to weekly gains amid the Central Bank’s Selic at 15% versus U.S. 4.0-4.25%, with the DXY up to 97.09.

The rate differential of nearly 11 points attracts global money to real assets, supported by commodity exports and inflation at 5.13%, though U.S. policy uncertainty limits dollar decline.

Technicals show downward moving averages for medium-term real strength, RSI below 33 suggesting overextension, weak MACD momentum, and tight Bollinger Bands indicating low volatility; support at 5.30, resistance at 5.36-5.42.

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Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin held near $117,130 on September 17, 2025, up slightly with support at $116,200, as crypto markets showed cautious strength post-Fed cut.

The market cap reflects steady dominance, with Ethereum at $4,574 and Solana at $244.11 leading gains, and altcoins like AVAX and MYX up double-digits.

U.S. rate cut prompted institutional adjustments, with Bitcoin ETFs netting $51 million outflow but BlackRock’s IBIT gaining $149.7 million, and Ethereum ETFs seeing inflows on DeFi/NFT interest.

Technicals include RSI at 59, MACD upward trend, and position above 200-day moving average; Brazil’s fintech sector remains tied to domestic slowdown at 15% rates.

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Companies and Market

Industry Outlook

Brazil’s stock market hit an all-time high on September 17, 2025, with the Ibovespa closing at 145,593.63 points, up with a peak at 146,330, driven by the U.S. Fed’s 25 bps cut to 4.0-4.25% and foreign inflows chasing the 15% Selic differential over global easing.

Retail and banking led with Magazine Luiza up 5.31%, Raia Drogasil 6.06%, Bradesco 3.47%, and Sendas 4.55%, reflecting job growth at 5.7% unemployment lowest since 2012, while commodities like Vale edged 0.17% amid slowdown signals and inflation under 5.2%.

The 11-point rate gap supports expansion, but persistent inflation at 5.13% and GDP slowdown to 1.6-2.2% in 2025 limit cuts, pressuring growth per structural issues like low 20% savings rate.

Today’s U.S. jobless claims (08:30 AM BRT), FX flows (13:30 PM BRT), and BoE decision (07:00 AM BRT) will shape banking, retail, and commodity outlooks, with global liquidity stable but domestic recession risks and U.S. sub-2% projections lingering; Mercosur-EFTA deal adds R$3.34 billion in exports by 2044 for agribusiness.

Key Developments

Economic Gamble at 15% Rates: Brazil’s Selic hold signals deeper troubles with 5.13% inflation, slowing GDP to 1.6-2.2%, and high real rates of 9.51% amid low savings and government debt service at 7.6% of GDP, risking recession while U.S. tariffs add pressures; markets expect no cuts until 2026.

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Petrobras Fiscal Dependence: 2024 government payments rose to R$270.3 billion from oil pre-salt boom, topping soybeans as export leader at $44.8 billion, but heightens vulnerability to price volatility, with investments in offshore projects needed for 4.4 million bpd by 2034.

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Itau Layoffs: Brazil’s largest bank dismissed ~1,000 remote/hybrid workers (1% of 96,219 staff) based on low digital activity monitoring (20% screen time vs. 75% average), testing surveillance limits amid 70% sector remote work, risking legal and reputational issues.

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Azul Survival Race: The airline filed Chapter 11 in U.S. in May 2025 to cut $2 billion debt, raise $1 billion capital with United/American support up to $300 million, and secure $1.6 billion financing, aiming emergence by late 2025 under U.S. judges for creditor deals impacting Brazil’s aviation.

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Mercosur-EFTA Trade Deal: Signed September 16 after 8 years, liberalizes 97% of exports, removing EFTA tariffs on Brazilian beef, soy, coffee; expected to add R$2.69 billion to GDP, R$660 million investment, R$3.34 billion exports by 2044, aiding diversification for SMEs despite phased quotas.

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