Ibovespa −2.38% · New Correction Low 183,218 · Petrobras −2.2% · Brent $100 · US Struck Qeshm Port · Iran: Ceasefire Broken · NFP Today · Banxico Cut to 6.50% · Warsh in 7 Days · War Day 69
The Ibovespa’s Worst Day of the War: Petrobras Dragged the Index to 183,218 as Oil’s Collapse Met Qeshm Strikes
The Ibovespa fell 4,472.60 points (−2.38%) to 183,218.26 on Thursday — the largest single-day point loss since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, surpassing the 3,868-point drop on April 29, according to B3 data. The close is 1,286 points below the previous panic low at 184,504 and 15,440 points (7.8%) below the 198,658 all-time high. Petrobras (PETR4) fell 2.22%, PRIO dropped 4.2%, and VAMO3 crashed 7.48%, per Investing.com — the oil-weighted Ibovespa sold off precisely because the deal that would benefit the world would devastate Brazil’s largest stock by market cap.
The paradox is structural: Brent’s crash from $114 to $100 on Iran deal hopes is globally bullish but locally bearish for Petrobras, which earned R$124.65 billion in 2025 revenue, per Yahoo Finance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new intraday all-time highs before pulling back — the S&P closed at 7,337.11 (−0.38%), the Dow briefly crossed 50,000 for the first time, according to Trading Economics and CNBC. But the session ended in confusion: late Thursday, Fox News reported the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Port and Bandar Abbas, per a senior US official cited by Investing.com. Iran accused the US of “breaking the ceasefire” by hitting “civilian areas with cooperation of some regional countries,” per TheStreet. CENTCOM said three US guided-missile destroyers came under Iranian attack in Hormuz, per Al Jazeera. Brent, which had fallen to $96.10 intraday, bounced to close at $100.06 (−1.19%), according to CNBC. The deal is not dead — but it’s not done. Iran’s 48-hour response window expires today, Friday, May 8. Today: US Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30 ET, cons: 65K). Unemployment Rate (cons: 4.3%). Average Hourly Earnings (cons: +0.3% MoM). Michigan Sentiment (15:00, cons: 49.7). Michigan Inflation Expectations (prev: 4.7%). Brazil IGP-DI (12:00 BRT). Chile CPI. ECB Lagarde speaks. FOMC Bowman + Cook speak. Baker Hughes. Iran 48-hour deadline. Warsh in 7 days. War Day 69.
Three Things That Matter
| Yesterday | Ibovespa −2.38% to 183,218 — WORST DAY OF THE WAR, NEW CORRECTION LOW (B3). O:187,690, H:187,779, L:182,868, C:183,218. Broke all supports. PETR4 −2.22%, PRIO −4.2%, VAMO3 −7.48% (Investing.com). S&P 500 −0.38% to 7,337 — hit new ATH intraday, reversed (CNBC). Nasdaq −0.13% to 25,806. Dow briefly crossed 50,000 first time (Trading Economics), closed −0.63% at 49,597. Brent −1.19% to $100.06 — intraday low $96.10, bounced after Iran rebuff + US strikes (CNBC). WTI −0.28% to $94.81. Late session: US struck Qeshm Port + Bandar Abbas (Fox News via Investing.com). Iran: “US broke ceasefire” (TheStreet). 3 US destroyers attacked by Iran in Hormuz (Al Jazeera). Mohsen Rezaei (Iran): US must pay reparations (CNBC/PressTV). Banxico cut 25bp to 6.50% (in-line). Micron −4%, AMD −4%, Broadcom down. McDonald’s at 1-year low. Citi +1% ($30B buyback). Chip profit-taking. USD/BRL R$4.9299 (flat). IEA: 14M bpd disrupted |
| Overnight | Brent rebounded to $101+ Friday pre-market on fresh Hormuz clashes (Trading Economics). CENTCOM: intercepted Iranian attacks, conducted defensive strikes while destroyers transited Hormuz — “military does not intend to escalate further” (Trading Economics). IEA warned war disrupting ~14M bpd, recovery would be “gradual” (Trading Economics). Iran response expected “within next two days” via Pakistan. Airbnb +18% revenue, raised 2026 guidance (TheStreet/CNBC). Block: GP +19%. Japan Services PMI: 51.0 (miss 51.2). German IP −0.7% MoM (missed +0.4% cons). German exports +0.5% (beat −1.7% cons). S&P 500 futures +0.13% (Yahoo Finance). Gold $4,765 (+1.5%). Bitcoin $79,881 (−2.23%) |
| Today | IRAN 48-HOUR RESPONSE DEADLINE — deal or escalation. US Nonfarm Payrolls Apr (13:30 ET, cons: 65K vs prev 178K). Unemployment Rate (cons: 4.3%). Average Hourly Earnings MoM (cons: 0.3%). AHE YoY (cons: 3.8%). Canada Employment (13:30, cons: 12.9K). Michigan Consumer Sentiment May prelim (15:00, cons: 49.7). Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations (prev: 4.7%). Michigan 5Y Expectations (prev: 3.5%). Brazil IGP-DI Apr (12:00 BRT, prev: 1.14%). Chile CPI (13:00, cons: 1.5%). Mexico Consumer Confidence. ECB Lagarde speaks. ECB de Guindos speaks. FOMC Bowman speaks (12:30 ET). Fed Gov Cook speaks (10:45). BoE Bailey speaks (13:20). Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (18:00). CFTC positioning. Wholesale Inventories. Petrobras Q1 earnings May 11 (Sunday). Warsh takes Fed chair May 15 (7 days). War Day 69 |
The Petrobras Paradox: Why the Ibovespa Crashed on the Best Global News of the War
Thursday’s selloff was not a risk-off event. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday all-time high before pulling back modestly, the Dow briefly touched 50,000, and global markets were pricing the Iran deal as broadly positive, per CNBC and Trading Economics. The Ibovespa’s 4,473-point plunge was driven by a single structural factor: Petrobras. Brazil’s largest company by market cap earned R$124.65B in 2025 revenue from high oil prices, per Yahoo Finance. A deal that reopens Hormuz and sends Brent from $126 to $90 destroys Petrobras’s earnings outlook. PETR4 fell 2.22%, PRIO dropped 4.2%, and VAMO3 (Vamos, a fleet leasing company exposed to diesel costs) crashed 7.48%, according to Investing.com data. Oil stocks constitute roughly 15% of the Ibovespa’s weight — and on Thursday, they were the anchor.
The irony is that the deal is bullish for virtually every other sector of the Brazilian economy: lower oil prices reduce inflation pass-through, ease the Copom’s constraint, strengthen the cutting cycle, and support consumption. Banks (Itaú, Bradesco, Banco do Brasil) benefit from a steeper cutting cycle. Retailers benefit from lower transport costs. But in the first-order move, the Ibovespa’s oil weighting dominated. As covered in yesterday’s Morning Call, the Kijun reclaim at 187,197 was the recovery confirmation signal — and Thursday blew through it by 3,979 points, closing below the cloud base at 183,176 for the first time since early March.
US Struck Qeshm Port as the 48-Hour Window Narrows
Late Thursday, Fox News reported US forces struck Iran’s Qeshm Port and the city of Bandar Abbas, citing a senior US official, per Investing.com. The official said “this was not a restarting of the war.” But Iran accused the US of “breaking the ceasefire” by striking “civilian areas with cooperation of some regional countries,” according to TheStreet’s session recap. Three US guided-missile destroyers came under attack from Iranian missiles, drones, and small boats in the Strait, with CENTCOM conducting “defensive strikes,” according to Al Jazeera. Brent, which had fallen to $96.10 intraday, bounced to close at $100.06 on the headline cascade. The 48-hour response window that Axios reported — within which Iran was expected to respond to the MOU — expires Friday. Iran’s Expediency Council member Mohsen Rezaei hardened the stance, stating the US “must pay reparations,” per CNBC citing PressTV. CENTCOM emphasized Friday it “does not intend to escalate further,” per Trading Economics. The deal is alive but under severe strain.
Ibovespa Broke All Supports and Set a New Correction Low at 183,218
Thursday: O:187,690.23, H:187,779.31, L:182,867.75, C:183,218.26 (−2.38%, −4,472.60), per B3 data. The 4,911-point intraday range (high to low) is the widest since March 3. The index opened at Wednesday’s close — near the Kijun — and sold off relentlessly. MACD: main line at 678.45, signal at −611.52, histogram at −1,289.97 per TradingView — the histogram is narrowing paradoxically (from −1,170 to −1,290) because the main line is falling faster than the signal, indicating fresh bearish momentum rather than exhaustion. RSI at 50.51, signal at 38.79 — the main RSI has dropped 2.27 points in a single session, confirming the downtrend has resumed.
Resistance: 183,218 (Thursday close) → 183,176 (former cloud base — now resistance) → 184,504 (former panic low — now resistance) → 187,141 → 187,197 (Kijun) → 198,658 (ATH).
Support: 182,868 (Thursday low) → 182,184 (next Ichimoku level from chart) → 181,000 (psychological) → 161,798 (200-day SMA).
Market Snapshot AS OF THU, MAY 7 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close / Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 183,218.26 | −2.38% WORST DAY OF WAR (B3) |
| USD/BRL | R$4.9299 | +0.03% (flat despite -2.4% IBOV) |
| S&P 500 | 7,337.11 | −0.38% (new ATH intraday, CNBC) |
| Dow Jones | 49,596.97 | −0.63% (briefly hit 50K, Trading Econ.) |
| Brent Crude | $100.06 | −1.19% (low $96.10 · CNBC) |
| WTI Crude | $94.81 | −0.28% (wild swings) |
| Gold | $4,765* | +1.5% Fri pre-mkt (Yahoo) |
| Bitcoin | $79,555 | −0.58% (TradingView) |
* = Friday pre-market. Sources: B3, CNBC, Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, Fox News, Al Jazeera, TheStreet, TradingView.
Friday’s Binary Event: NFP at 13:30 ET and Iran’s Deadline
Nonfarm Payrolls at 13:30 ET is Friday’s data event. Consensus is 65K (prev 178K), per Trading Economics — a sharp deceleration. Unemployment consensus holds at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings consensus +0.3% MoM / +3.8% YoY. A miss below 50K would be the first sub-100K print in the war era and would reinforce the demand-weakness thesis that supports rate cuts. A beat above 100K would be the stagflation read: strong labor market + hot inflation = no cuts. The ADP’s 183K beat on Wednesday suggests upside risk.
Iran’s 48-hour response window expires today. The MOU framework includes nuclear enrichment moratorium, gradual Hormuz reopening, and broader negotiation structure, per Axios. But Thursday’s Qeshm strikes and Iran’s “ceasefire broken” accusation have complicated the timeline. CENTCOM stressed it “does not intend to escalate further,” per Trading Economics. The binary outcome remains: deal → Brent retests $85-90 → Ibovespa faces further Petrobras drag short-term but macro environment improves for all other sectors. No deal → bombing resumes “at much higher level” (Trump) → Brent back to $115+ → Ibovespa attempts to hold 182K-183K.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 15:00 ET (cons: 49.7) and the 1-year inflation expectations (prev: 4.7%) complete the data picture. Brazil IGP-DI April at 12:00 BRT (prev: 1.14%) is the domestic inflation read. Petrobras Q1 earnings release Sunday, May 11 — the results will price into Monday’s session and are now the dominant domestic catalyst. ECB Lagarde speaks, FOMC Bowman and Cook also on the tape.
Economic Calendar FRIDAY, MAY 8
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-Market | German IP −0.7% MoM (missed +0.4% cons). German exports +0.5% (beat). German trade balance €14.3B (missed €17.8B cons). Japan Services PMI: 51.0 (miss). ECB Lagarde + de Guindos speak | MEDIUM |
| 10:45–12:30 ET | Fed Gov Cook speaks (10:45). Brazil IGP-DI Apr (12:00 BRT, prev: 1.14%). FOMC Bowman speaks (12:30) | HIGH |
| 13:00–13:30 ET | Chile CPI Apr (13:00, cons: 1.5% MoM). Mexico Consumer Confidence (13:00). BoE Bailey speaks (13:20). US Nonfarm Payrolls Apr (13:30, cons: 65K vs prev 178K). Unemployment Rate (cons: 4.3%). Average Hourly Earnings MoM (cons: 0.3%). AHE YoY (cons: 3.8%). Canada Employment (cons: 12.9K) | CRITICAL |
| 15:00 ET | Michigan Consumer Sentiment May prelim (cons: 49.7 vs prev 49.8). Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations (prev: 4.7%). Michigan 5Y Expectations (prev: 3.5%). Wholesale Inventories (cons: 1.4%) | HIGH |
| 18:00 ET | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (prev: 408). ECB Schnabel speaks (17:00). Buba Nagel speaks (17:15). CFTC positioning (20:30) | MEDIUM |
Latin America Markets THURSDAY CLOSE
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 183,218.26 | −2.38% | 50.51 | New Low |
| IPC (Mexico) | 70,019.45 | +0.24% | 57.67 | Above 70K |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 2,834,283 | −1.63% | 47.51 | Gave back Wed rally |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,871.28 | −0.60% | 52.44 | Neutral |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,165.94 | −0.98% | 41.74 | Bearish |
Brazil led LatAm losses for the second time in three sessions, but this time the driver was unique: the Petrobras oil-weighting drag rather than regional risk-off. Mexico’s IPC actually gained 0.24% to close above 70,000 for the first time, per TradingView — benefiting from Banxico’s 25bp cut to 6.50% and its status as a net oil importer that benefits from falling prices. The MERVAL gave back 1.63% of Wednesday’s 4.42% surge. Chile’s IPSA eased 0.60%. Colombia’s COLCAP fell 0.98%, with RSI at 41.74 confirming bearish momentum. The Ibovespa’s dramatic underperformance vs the region confirms the Petrobras-specific nature of the selloff.
Commodities, FX, and Crypto
Oil: Brent closed at $100.06 (−1.19%), with Thursday’s session featuring extreme volatility, per CNBC. Prices fell to $96.10 early on deal optimism, then bounced after Iran’s Rezaei demanded reparations and the US struck Qeshm Port, per Investing.com. IEA warned the war has disrupted ~14 million bpd, and recovery would be “gradual” even with a deal, per Trading Economics. Friday pre-market: Brent rebounding to $101+ on fresh Hormuz clashes.
USD/BRL: R$4.9299 — essentially flat (+0.03%) on the Ibovespa’s worst day of the war, per TradingView. RSI at 36.65 (signal: 36.41). The carry trade continues to decouple from equity volatility. The BRL at R$4.93 amid a 2.38% equity crash is the single most powerful validation of the structural carry thesis in the entire war. Even Petrobras repricing cannot break R$5.00.
Bitcoin: $79,555 (−0.58%), per Bitstamp/TradingView. O:80,005, H:80,130, L:79,168. RSI at 61.55/59.96. BTC pulled back from the $81K highs as deal uncertainty rose. Gold: ~$4,765 Friday pre-market (+1.5%), per Yahoo Finance — continuing to price the tail risk of deal collapse and escalation. The gold-oil divergence (gold up, oil volatile) confirms the market is hedging both outcomes simultaneously.
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| The selloff is Petrobras-specific, not structural. Mexico’s IPC rose. The S&P hit new ATH intraday. The world is pricing the deal as positive. Brazil’s non-oil sectors (banks, retail, consumption) benefit massively from lower oil. Once the first-order Petrobras shock is absorbed, the Ibovespa’s second-order beneficiaries (which constitute 85% of the index) drive recovery. Petrobras Q1 (May 11) provides the earnings clarity.
The BRL at R$4.93 during a 2.38% selloff proves the carry floor is unbreakable. The structural carry trade has now survived: $126 Brent, ceasefire collapse, UAE missile attacks, the Kijun break, Focus at 5.0%, and now the worst single-day point loss of the war. The 14.50% Selic carry attracts inflows regardless of equity volatility. If the deal materializes, the BRL strengthens further toward R$4.85. A weak NFP (<50K) today would be bullish for EM rate-cut expectations. Demand weakness = rate-cut path = DI curve compression = Ibovespa recovery. The labor market cooling is what every central bank needs. |
The Ibovespa broke below 183,263 (the March 25 swing low) for the first time. Every support level this newsletter has tracked since April is now overhead resistance: the Kijun at 187,197, the former panic low at 184,504, the cloud base at 183,176. The close at 183,218 is in uncharted territory for the correction. The next meaningful support is 182,184 from the TradingView chart, then 181,000 psychological.
The Qeshm strikes killed the deal momentum. Iran saying the US “broke the ceasefire” while the 48-hour window expires Friday creates maximum uncertainty. Previous negotiation attempts have all failed. Trump’s “bombing at much higher level” threat is operative. If Iran rejects the MOU, oil reverses to $115+ and the Ibovespa faces 180K. Petrobras Q1 earnings (May 11) face a repricing of the entire oil outlook. The market was pricing PETR4 on $110-120 Brent. If the deal materializes and Brent settles at $85-90, analysts will cut PETR4 price targets 15-20%. As the Ibovespa’s largest weight, this creates mechanical downward pressure through index-level selling. The Petrobras drag is not a one-day event. |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
The Ibovespa just recorded its worst day of the war: −4,472.60 points (−2.38%) to 183,218.26, a new correction low that breaches every support level tracked since April. The selloff is structurally different from previous declines: it was driven not by risk-off but by the repricing of Petrobras in a world where the Iran deal collapses Brent from $126 to $100. PETR4 fell 2.22%, PRIO −4.2%, VAMO3 −7.48%. The rest of the economy benefits from lower oil, but the Ibovespa’s 15% oil weighting dominated Thursday’s tape. The BRL at R$4.93 — flat during the carnage — proves the carry trade is truly structural.
Friday’s setup is binary on two axes. The NFP at 13:30 ET determines the US rate narrative: weak print (<50K) supports cuts and EM; strong print (>100K) reinforces stagflation. The Iran 48-hour deadline determines the oil narrative: deal collapses Brent further (Ibovespa Petrobras drag continues but macro improves) or deal fails (Brent spikes, Petrobras rebounds, but inflation/rate picture deteriorates). The paradox is that the best outcome for Brazil’s economy (deal + lower oil) is the worst short-term outcome for the Ibovespa’s largest stock.
Bias: Neutral at new lows, with the Petrobras paradox as the defining dynamic. The Ibovespa is in uncharted correction territory at 183,218 — below every prior support. But the BRL at R$4.93 and the global risk-on backdrop (S&P near records, Dow tested 50K) suggest this is a composition selloff, not a macro one. Petrobras Q1 earnings Sunday (May 11) will resolve the repricing debate. The NFP today determines the weekly close’s direction. If the deal materializes and NFP is weak: the Ibovespa may paradoxically fall further short-term (Petrobras) while the macro environment structurally improves. If the deal collapses: 182K-183K holds and Petrobras rebounds. The war may end this week. The Ibovespa’s relationship with oil has never been more complicated.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Ibovespa crash 2.38% on a day global markets were stable?
The Ibovespa’s 4,473-point plunge to 183,218 on May 7 was driven by Petrobras (PETR4 −2.22%) and other oil stocks (PRIO −4.2%, VAMO3 −7.48%), per Investing.com. A deal that reopens Hormuz and sends Brent from $126 to sub-$100 destroys Petrobras’s earnings outlook. Oil stocks constitute roughly 15% of the Ibovespa’s weight. The S&P 500 actually hit a new all-time intraday high the same day, confirming this was a composition-specific selloff, not a macro risk event.
Did the US break the ceasefire with Iran?
Late Thursday, Fox News reported US forces struck Iran’s Qeshm Port and Bandar Abbas, per a senior US official cited by Investing.com. The official said “this was not a restarting of the war.” Iran accused the US of “breaking the ceasefire,” per TheStreet. CENTCOM said the strikes were defensive after three US destroyers came under Iranian attack, per Al Jazeera. CENTCOM emphasized Friday it “does not intend to escalate further,” per Trading Economics. The 14-point MOU remains under review, with Iran’s response expected via Pakistan.
What is the consensus for today’s US Nonfarm Payrolls?
The consensus for April Nonfarm Payrolls is 65,000 jobs (previous: 178,000), with unemployment expected to hold at 4.3% and average hourly earnings at +0.3% MoM / +3.8% YoY, according to Trading Economics and Dow Jones consensus estimates. The sharp deceleration from 178K to 65K would reflect the oil shock’s lagged impact on hiring. Wednesday’s ADP report of 183K suggests upside risk, though ADP and NFP have diverged significantly in recent months.
When does Petrobras report Q1 2026 earnings?
Petrobras (PETR4/PBR) is scheduled to release Q1 2026 earnings on Sunday, May 11, per Yahoo Finance. The earnings call with CEO and CFO is set for the following week. The results will price into Monday’s session. With Brent having traded between $95 and $126 during Q1, the revenue and EBITDA figures will reflect peak oil prices. The forward guidance — particularly on capex and production — will determine whether analysts adjust price targets for a potential $85-90 Brent scenario if the Iran deal materializes.
RT Staff Reporters · This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Updated: 2026-05-08T07:45:00Z by RT Staff Reporters